I am by no means an expert. I can say this. When you breed 2 blairs you "are most likely" to get mostly blairs. Now... Is there a posibility to produce an Alterna from this union? Yes... But the chances vary based on location. Here is something else to think about. Will they be lite phase or dark phase or medium? Again, no equation to give you this information either. This is what makes breeding Alterna so exciting...
A personal example is that I have 2 dark alterna phase from one locality. She laid 9 eggs. 2 were identified as slugs immediately. 7 went on to incubate. 6 ended up hatching but only 4 made it. The six were as follows... 1 weird blair, 1 normal blair, 1 dark alterna, 3 medium alterna.
So, you just never know what your going to get.
Best Wishes,
Steven Owens