Oh man, like Zach said, no way one can predict.

I would entertain the following ideas:

a) Route many grooves, then experiment with what works. You do not have to use all grooves.

b) Consider running 11-inch-wide Flexwatt up the back wall instead. Should be enough heat. You can use washers when placing the back on between the back and the shell, giving a little clearance for the flexwatt to clear the shelf edges.

c) There still may be enough clearance to tape two runs of heat cable on top of each shelf at the very back where the boxes clear (due to the lip hitting the back wall). This way the heater is much closer to the box bottom. Go about 1 inch apart or more between runs.
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Mark

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