Say you have 100 50% chance het pied males. If they where randomly selected with no differences between the hets and the non hets (say for argument sake they all grow the same and are just as likely to breed and produce just as many babies and no one looked at any of them before you randomly picked them out of some larger group of 50% possible hets) then you would expect out of that large a group that about 50 where hets and about 50 weren’t. In reality it will probably not come out exact but the bigger the group the closer the % is likely to be to 50/50.

So, let’s say that in this group of 100 50% possible het pied males that 50 of these are het pied and 50 aren't. And lets say you breed each to one normal female. I'm betting out of 100 normals there might be an unknown het pied female but lets assume real normals for pied here. And lets say that each normal female produces 4 babies.

Would you agree that of the original 100 50% het pied males the 50 that where not het pied will produce 200 non het for pied babies? How about the 50 males in the group of 100 50% hets that actually turned out to be hets? Would you agree that on average their 200 babies would turn out to be 100 hets and 100 normals?

So, given that you don't know which 50 of the 100 50% het males where hets so you have all 400 babies grouped together and 100 of them are hets (half the babies from the het group of dads) it works out to 25% of the group of 400 babies are het pied. If you pick one at random without knowing anything about if it's father was one of the 50% hets that hit or not your chance that it's a het is 25%. Of course any % less than 100 is a guess as it if it's a het or not but 25% is our best guess as to the chance that this one baby is a het.

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