Posted by:
Paul Hollander
at Thu Jun 7 11:57:10 2007 [ Email Message ] [ Show All Posts by Paul Hollander ]
>What if I bred a possible super to a hypo what would I have to see to still prove out a super?
This can be done. The best you can do, though, is to get a probability that the snake in test is a super, meaning that it has a pair of salmon (AKA hypo) genes.
Mate your possible super to a normal, and if any normals show up, the possible super is 100% certain not to be a super. If no normals show up among the babies, then the formula for the probability it's a super is 1 minus 0.5 to the nth power, or 1-(0.5^n), where n is the number of babies. The usual cutoff for a test is 99% probability. You can make up a table as follows:
n 1-(0.5^n)
--------------
1 1-(0.5) = 0.5 = 50%
2 1-(0.5*0.5) = 0.75 = 75%
3 1-(0.5*0.5*0.5) = 0.875 = 87.5%
4 1-(0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5) = 0.9375 = 93.8%
5 1-(0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5) = 0.96875 = 96.9%
6 1-(0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5) = 0.984375 = 98.4%
7 1-(0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5) = 0.9921875 = 99.2%
So if you get seven babies from a possible super x normal mating, and none of those babies is a normal, then the probability is just over 99% that the possible super is an actual super.
The probability from a possible super to a hypo mating is found by the formula 1-(0.75^n), where n is the number of babies. Again, if one or more normals show up among the babies, it is 100% certain that the possible super is not a super. A table of probabilities can be produced like the one above (but I will not complete it):
n 1-(0.75^n)
--------------
1 1-(0.75) = 0.25 = 25%
2 1-(0.75*0.75) = 0.4375 = 43.8%
(skipping many values of n)
17 1-(0.75^17) = 0.992483053 = 99.2%
So if you get 17 babies from a possible super x hypo mating, and none of those babies is a normal, then the probability is just over 99% that the possible super is an actual super.
More non-normal babies raises the probability, of course.
Paul Hollander
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RE: Probables and supers?? - Paul Hollander, Thu Jun 7 11:57:10 2007
