Posted by:
RandyRemington
at Sat Aug 23 14:15:26 2008 [ Email Message ] [ Show All Posts by RandyRemington ]
It all comes down to odds and your judgment call if they aren't hets or there is some other explanation (incompatible lines, pathogenesis, retained sperm, male is a chimera, disproportionate death of homozygous embryos, or something we don't understand about python reproduction). Here is how the odds break down excluding unexpected explanations:
Hom X Het Eggs----------Missing 1 in ?---% Not Mis
1-----------------------------------2--------------------50.0000%
2-----------------------------------4--------------------75.0000%
3-----------------------------------8--------------------87.5000%
4-----------------------------------16-------------------93.7500%
5-----------------------------------32-------------------96.8750%
6-----------------------------------64-------------------98.4375%
7-----------------------------------128------------------99.2188%
8-----------------------------------256------------------99.6094%
9-----------------------------------512------------------99.8047%
10----------------------------------1,024----------------99.9023%
11----------------------------------2,048----------------99.9512%
12----------------------------------4,096----------------99.9756%
13----------------------------------8,192----------------99.9878%
14----------------------------------16,384---------------99.9939%
15----------------------------------32,768---------------99.9969%
16----------------------------------65,536---------------99.9985%
17----------------------------------131,072--------------99.9992%
18----------------------------------262,144--------------99.9996%
19----------------------------------524,288--------------99.9998%
20----------------------------------1,048,576------------99.9999%
So, for your 5 egg clutches are you the unlucky 1 in 32 that missed your 96.875% chance of producing at least one homozygous? People buy lotto tickets all the time at less than 1 in 32 odds. On the 9 egg clutch, are you the unlucky 1 in 512 and will you keep trying until you get to 20 babies for a 1 in 1 million chance?
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RE: How many eggs to disprove a het? - RandyRemington, Sat Aug 23 14:15:26 2008