I would suggest everyone find and read the following paper. I have yet to read it, but the abstract seems very relevant to this issue.



2) Predicting Establishment Success For Alien Reptiles And Amphibians: A Role For Climate Matching

Biological Invasions

ISSN 1387-3547 (Print) 1573-1464 (Online)

Issue Volume 11, Number 3 / March, 2009

Category Original Paper

Pages 713-724



Mary Bomford1, Fred Kraus2, Simon C. Barry3 and Emma Lawrence1 Contact Information

(1) Bureau of Rural Sciences, GPO Box 858, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

(2) Department of Natural Sciences, Bishop Museum, 1525 Bernice St., Honolulu, HI 96817, USA

(3) CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences, GPO Box 664, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia



Received: 25 February 2008 Accepted: 15 May 2008 Published online: 31 May 2008

Abstract We examined data comprising 1,028 successful and 967 failed introduction records for 596 species of alien reptiles and amphibians around the world to test for factors influencing establishment success. We found significant variations between families and between genera. The number of jurisdictions where a species was introduced was a significant predictor of the probability the species had established in at least one jurisdiction. All species that had been introduced to more than 10 jurisdictions (34 species) had established at least one alien population. We also conducted more detailed quantitative comparisons for successful (69 species) and failed (116 species) introductions to three jurisdictions (Great Britain, California and Florida) to test for associations with climate match, geographic range size, and history of establishment success elsewhere. Relative to failed species, successful species had better climate matches between the jurisdiction where they were introduced and their geographic range elsewhere in the world. Successful species were also more likely to have high establishment success rates elsewhere in the world. Cross-validations indicated our full model correctly categorized establishment success with 78–80% accuracy. Our findings may guide risk assessments for the import of live alien reptiles and amphibians to reduce the rate new species establish in the wild.



Keywords Alien species - Amphibians - Climate matching - Establishment success - Prediction - Reptiles - Risk assessment



Contact Information Emma Lawrence

Email: emma.lawrence@brs.gov.au



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