Posted by:
Paul Hollander
at Tue Jun 23 18:57:06 2009 [ Email Message ] [ Show All Posts by Paul Hollander ]
If the hypo and motley mutants have the same location in the genome, then a hypo super motley (AKA red devil) boa is is a chromosomal abberation or some other fluke of nature. If the hypo and motley mutants are located close together in the genome, then the chance of a hypo super motley from this sort of mating cannot be higher than 1/8. So the actual probability must be somewhere between 1/8 and zero. But if it was near 1/8, Jeremy Stone or somebody would have already produced one.
Actually, the 1/50 to 1/000 guesstimated range is closer to a guess than an estimate. 
1/1000 is a nice, round number that isn't quite zero.
I picked 1/50 because I didn't want the original poster to be too optimistic. If that's too low, then he could get a delightful surprise sooner than hoped. But lower probabilites have been documented in lab mice and other species.
Paul Hollander
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