Posted by:
Hiss_N_Herps
at Tue Dec 22 03:41:53 2009 [ Email Message ] [ Show All Posts by Hiss_N_Herps ]
Has anyone seen this document:
Claims of Potential Expansion throughout the U.S. by Invasive Python Species Are Contradicted by Ecological Niche Models
The document was generated and prepared by:
R. Alexander Pyron, Frank T. Burbrink and Timothy J. Guiher, from The Graduate School and University Center Department of Biology at The City University of New York and the The College of Staten Island Department of Biology
This is a very interesting report. The report inflrmation was furnished by the "Public Library of Science" and as best as I can find, it was generated a few months after the USGS Climate prediction model. The report was very well hidden on the internet. Several references to it and the USGS maps contained either broken links of FORBIDDEN 404 ERROR pages.
This report completely disputes the USGS climate distribution model as reported on by Rodda and clearly states that the climate change as predicted by Rodda would actually reduce the available climate suitable for the Burmese Python to less than what it currently inhabits in the Southern part of Floridas Everglades. Furthermore, this model actually predicts that the natural range of the Burmese Python would also be greatly reduced, enough so to cause a dramatic decline of the natural population of this species. According to the "Rodda Report" which used 2 climatic variables to map their data, the world data prediction with thier 2 point data set would also put suitable habitat for this species in Afghanistan, Borneo and the Arabian peninsula. The PLos ONE report and accompaning maps utilized 19 climatic variables to generate predictive suitable climate for this species.
When PLos ONE ran their model based on the "CURRENT" climate, thier model accurately matched the current area inhabited by Burmese Pythons in South Florida as well as in their current range in Southeast Asia. It also showed that the "Current Climate" would support Burms in extreme southern Texas. Records of pythons exist from several localities outside of these predicted ranges, but these appear to be isolated releases, and do not represent Established populations.
The future predictions of potential distribution based on forecasts of global climate change from the CCM3 model predict a worldwide contraction in the suitable habitat available for the Burmese Python by Rodda. Both within the native range of the snakes as well as in the United States, the areas of potential occupancy are diminished. Within the U.S., the available niche disappears from southern Texas and shrinks in southern Florida. Somewhat unexpectedly, a large portion of suitable environmental space is predicted to become available in the northwestern United States under the models of potential global climate change.
If anyone wants me to post the entire report I will gladely do so but it is fairly long and I'm not sure that I can link the maps since they are currently in .TIFF format. This is a very interisting report that I think we must confirm and have in our pocket to contradict what is actually being reported as viable habitat and distributable range for the burmese and all other species on the ROC list.
This report further states that if the climate model that Rodda reported on by the USGS was correct, and that these reptiles were truely migratory species then modeling the ecological niche of organisms solely as a function of mean temperature and precipitation omits the critical interactions between these variables that define the fundamental and realized niche which organisms inhabit. If species were able to expand into environments simply based on mean precipitation and temperature conditions similar to those in their native range, the continental United States should be overrun by the northward expansion of subtropical species such as the Boa Constrictor, found only 145 km south of the Texas border.
Chris
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 Rebutal to USGS Climate Map. - Hiss_N_Herps, Tue Dec 22 03:41:53 2009
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