"Hey rodney - could we be experiencing global warming and NOT experience record high temps on average once every 200 days?"



As long as you assume that global warming is a long term phenomenon, which everyone who believes in global warming seems to say it is, then no, we could not. If global warming was very recent, and there was cooling for most of the first part of last 200 years in which data was kept, then it is possible, but that is a huge assumption that is in violation of all the data we have. (Even data from the alarmists.) We know, for instance, that the vast majority of any warming that occurred in the last 150 years or so occurred in the first 2/3rds of that period, and almost none in the last! So, to answer your question, no, it is not possible unless you assume some things that we know are not true.



Let me put it this way, so it is easier for you to understand. Assuming no global warming, so everything is totally random.



If you took every Jan 1st temp. for the last 200 years, every Jan 2nd temp for the last 200 years, every Jan 3rd temp for the last 200 years, etc., you would record a record high temp that was higher than any temp ever measured on that date exactly once (on average) every 200 days. You could then expect to see this in each and every city you measured, again, on average, once every 200 days. There can be local warming or cooling not related to global warming, which is why it has to be done on average.



If, for instance, you have a local news weather report that gives you temperatures of 30 cities every night, just by randomness, you would have to hear of one record high temp, in one of those cities, (higher than ever recorded before on that day) on average 200/30 or every 6.67 days! You should also hear of a record low temp. at the exact same frequency, without global warming.



And with global warming, it would have to be more often since global warming would make it nonrandom and weighted toward the warm side! And that's not even taking into consideration the foolish alarmists that say that global warming is so very dangerous because it is accelerating!



By the way, you ought to look into statistical analysis using nonrandom samples to help you better understand our previous debate about huge margins and how 100 randomness in sampling is not necessarily needed to make generalizations with margins that huge.



I was hoping to get some people to think about this. About how their perceptions are incorrect, or how they can be fooled by sensational stories, but I guess my attempt was lost on you, sorry.





Rodney

[ Show Entire Thread ]