Thats exactly right. Record high temps are not random therefore the lack thereof can't be proof against global warming.





First of all, why wouldn't any records of temps be random. Highs, lows, or medians? Why would record highs not be random if there was no global warming or cooling? That simply doesn't make any sense. Why do you think a "heat wave" or a "spike" wouldn't have exactly the same chance of happening this day in this year as it did ten years ago, 20 years ago, or 50 years ago, if there wasn't global warming or global cooling? Why do you think that one particular year would have an advantage over any other? Any year would have the same probability as any other year of having a heat wave, a cold spell, tornadoes, or any other weather condition -- without global warming or cooling preventing this randomness.



Secondly, even if you don't fully understand statistics, you could prove this point using more conventional, "non-statistical" math methods.



For instance, if you took all the temperature measurements for three years and put them into a data base, you would get one "highest" temp. out of the three temps. taken on Jan the 1st. You would also get a highest temp. out of each of the three temps taken on Jan the 2nd., etc. At the end of 3 years, you would have exactly 365 "highest" temps, and 730 "non-highest" temps. This would give you exactly one out of every 3 days on average of being a historical record high. Randomness does not matter when things are taken on average with this type of analysis.



It is important not to complicate these issues - they are difficult enough to understand without people trying to obfuscate reality with illogical assertions.



I agree. But I have always found mathematics and statistical analysis to be very simply and easy for me to understand. It is the articles that say things like "a heat wave is evidence of global warming" that obfuscates reality. It looks simply at the heat wave to try to reinforce peoples concept of global warming, and it doesn't look at history or probablilities to try and explain what is really happening.





Rodney

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