In case you missed it, read this - its pretty interesting - bare with me, its a little long, but worth the effort.



Below, rodney set out to provide us with "Yet another reason why I don't belive in global warming" He presented some "statistical analysis" as he calls it that proved his point. But take a look, see if you can figure out where his "analysis" hit the ditch!



Rodney said:



Here is some simple statistical analysis.



If you assume that temperatures are completely random (no global warming). Then in the last 200 years or so that temp. records have been kept, you would have a one in 200 chance that today is the warmest (this date) in recorded history. (04-27-04 temps. vs. 04-27-03 temps., vs 04-27-02 temps., etc.) Today, then, also has a one in 200 chance of being the coldest (on this date). And today has a 198 out of 200 chance of being neither the coldest or warmest.



That means that on average, you should hear a news report that your city is the warmest it has been on this day every 200 days, or every 7 months or so. (And this is assuming that temps. are totally random!) Now throw in the global warming theory, and that 7 months should be considerably shorter! Do you think that you hear, on the news, that your particular city is experiencing the warmest day ever recorded for this date at a rate of considerably less than once every 7 months? After all, we have been warming for a long time if you believe the alarmists!



Here's the interesting thing. rodney asserts that if we have NO global warming we would see (on average) all time record high temps every 200 days, and by implication, all time record lows every 200 days. Obviously, this isn't the case! So did this stop rodney's "statistical" analysis? Of course not - he forged ahead into the murky land of muddy thought.



So here's the challange! If rodney's analysis is correct, why don't we see record high temps, and record low temps, on average, every 200 days? Or, god forbid, if rodney's analysis is incorrect, where did his thinking go astray?

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