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LOL...my pet peave, so I'll dive back in.....

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Posted by: JP at Fri Sep 23 12:04:29 2005   [ Email Message ] [ Show All Posts by JP ]  
   

No actually, theoretically it does not mean that if you have 4 babies one will be a pied. Probability and odds (yes, two different but related terms) are so often misapplied here, even by those "in the know". In fact, if you did produce a 4 egg clucth, the only thing you can say for sure is that all of them, 100%, will be ball pythons. You must apply "punnett square probabilies" to each individual egg....NOT to clutches as a whole.

Look it this way: Lets say you do have a 4 egg clutch. The first three eggs pip, and you see that they are all normal. In your estimation, you would assume that the 4th egg has a high probability of being a pied. It does not! It still has a 25% chance of being a pied..... even if the first 10 or 15 eggs are normal.

Flip a coin 10 times. Even if it is heads the first 9 times, its still 50/50 to be heads the next time.

I know it sounds like splitting hairs, but I thinks its VERY important to make that distinction.


   

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