No actually, theoretically it does not mean that if you have 4 babies one will be a pied. Probability and odds (yes, two different but related terms) are so often misapplied here, even by those "in the know". In fact, if you did produce a 4 egg clucth, the only thing you can say for sure is that all of them, 100%, will be ball pythons. You must apply "punnett square probabilies" to each individual egg....NOT to clutches as a whole.

Look it this way: Lets say you do have a 4 egg clutch. The first three eggs pip, and you see that they are all normal. In your estimation, you would assume that the 4th egg has a high probability of being a pied. It does not! It still has a 25% chance of being a pied..... even if the first 10 or 15 eggs are normal.

Flip a coin 10 times. Even if it is heads the first 9 times, its still 50/50 to be heads the next time.

I know it sounds like splitting hairs, but I thinks its VERY important to make that distinction.

[ Hide Replies ]

• A pair of 100% het pieds should produce 25% pieds correct?n/p - pfan151, Fri Sep 23 11:13:14 2005
• RE: A pair of 100% het pieds should produce 25% pieds correct?n/p - toshamc, Fri Sep 23 11:15:15 2005
• not exactly.......(and a link for ya) - JP, Fri Sep 23 11:27:34 2005
• RE: not exactly.......(and a link for ya) - toshamc, Fri Sep 23 11:46:04 2005
• LOL...my pet peave, so I'll dive back in..... - JP, Fri Sep 23 12:04:29 2005
• RE: LOL...my pet peave, so I'll dive back in..... - toshamc, Fri Sep 23 12:12:24 2005
• Exactly! one pied, or more, or less....lol - JP, Fri Sep 23 12:14:03 2005
• RE: Exactly! one pied, or more, or less....lol - craig, Sat Sep 24 21:41:31 2005
• RE: LOL...my pet peave, so I'll dive back in..... - ginebig, Fri Sep 23 12:50:52 2005
• Here is one example of a situation where... - bhmorrill, Fri Sep 23 15:23:15 2005
• RE: not exactly.......(and a link for ya) - pfan151, Fri Sep 23 12:13:53 2005
• RE: not exactly.......(and a link for ya) - JP, Fri Sep 23 12:16:35 2005
• referring to percents in previous post as %white...not percent het....np - JP, Fri Sep 23 12:17:33 2005
• RE: not exactly.......(and a link for ya) - CJBianco, Fri Sep 23 13:24:57 2005
• hahahaha - herphobbyist, Fri Sep 23 13:39:38 2005
• RE: hahahaha - CJBianco, Fri Sep 23 14:09:51 2005
• I wish it worked that way.... - herphobbyist, Fri Sep 23 13:33:02 2005
• RE: I wish it worked that way.... - CJBianco, Fri Sep 23 14:19:51 2005
• RE: not exactly.......(and a link for ya) - blazingreptiles, Fri Sep 23 14:12:03 2005
• Do you guys believe in luck? - nogard, Fri Sep 23 16:36:57 2005
• yep... - coldthumb, Fri Sep 23 16:49:20 2005