Okay, I'm a high school math teacher, AND I have a degree in statistics. My husband is a high school science teacher and has a degree in genetics. I just CAN'T let some of your argument go without challenging it, and I couldn't read the rest beyond this following quoted paragraph, just because I couldn't let this fallacious argument go. Correct me if I have misinterpreted your statement
you said:
Lets say your carrying four lethal recessive traits, never before known to humanity, but these traits arose from genetic damage to parents or grandparents.
Your society promotes brother-sister marriages, you produce children with your sister.
Here's the math.
You have a 1/2 chance of inheriting each recessive lethal from parents(say either parent does not have same mutation)
So the probability of you becoming a carrier for any of the four recessive lethals is 4X(1/2).
Therefore you are probably going to be a carrier for at least two recessive lethal traits.
Okay, first of all, if you multiply four times one half you get two.... in statistical terms that means 200%, which is impossible. There's no such thing as saying that a person has a 200% chance of inheriting a specific gene.
If a person (or a snake) has four recessive lethal genes. then the probability that he or she will pass on any ONE of those genes to a single offspring is 1/2. The odds that a person will get TWO of those genes is 1/2 times 1/2 which is 1/4. The odds that a person would inherit all four of the lethal recessives is 1/2 raised to the fourth power, which is one in sixteen odds.
Now reality is NOT like statistics, when your talking about your pet snake Bob and his "sister" Sally. They may have a statistical chance of having a particular outcome, but reality is always a little different than statistics predicts, since it is random
Take for example two litters of mice I recently had born. All the parents (half siblings) were recessive for hairlessness. One litter was three babies, and one was five. Altogether that made eight baby mice, statistically speaking I should get 1/4th of the babies as hairless, which would be two babies. And lo-and-behold, I got two hairless mice from those litters. The litter of three mice had two hairless, and the litter of five had NO hairless. Now if you looked at each litter, they are off on the odds, but if you look at both, they start to conform to the expected percentages.
I don't know if it's the same in snakes as in mice, (but I think it is), but if you breed genetically distinct critters, you start to get to inbreeding depression after three or four generations, if you can continue to breed siblings together (ie they don't become too messed up by lethal or deleterious recessives) by the eighth or ninth generation most of the deleterious genes have been bred out and the animals become close to genetically identical (I think that 97% genetically identical is the statistically accepted figure). By the time you get to the 20th generation the animals are 99.8% genetically identical.
Now if snakes have an "already inbred" population (again, this is subject to opinion, though if there is specific SCIENTIFIC research I would love to read the scientific report) this could mean that a lot of the deleterious genes might have already been bred out. This is more likely in SMALL isolated populations than in broader ranging species.
Inbreeding is definately not something to do without having a strong understanding of genes. Once an animal shows a specific deleterious gene, it is important to realize that breeding from that snake's parents or siblings causes increased risk of perpetuating such nasty genes. It just requires common sense, a knowledge of genetics, and the willingness to do the right thing if/when something bad crops up.
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~Sasheena
and the kids: Tantilla, Tantillas, Lightning, Kinkee, Maple, Castle, Bishop, Queenie, Jester, Pandora, Phantom, Aphrodite, Athena, Hermes, and Lady