I'll reply here, but this is for Lilypad's post also.
I kept a colony of box turtles in NJ for over a decade. I could have set my calender on it...April 14th. It was amazing, I'd see little heads poking out of the leaves/pine needles almost exactly on that date. In the actual pine barrens proper, the box turtles would wake up a few weeks earlier. The wind is blocked, but the sun shines brightly on the ground. This makes the barrens heat up more quickly. The difference isn't huge, though. Draconcjo, I thought you'd like that info.
Now I live in the Southeast, and the fact that I keep moving my turtles to different pens makes pinning down a date difficult, but it's generally in late February. When my Camellia blooms die, and the Rhododendron buds begin to open I know that I should keep my eyes on the pens.
The Easterns rarely wake up during winter, and if they do I know to watch out for illness the following spring/summer. Off hand, I can't think of any instances when a box turtle of mine has awoken during winter without ending up with some ailment during spring...usually an ear abscess, which is common in both wild and captive box turtles down here. I'm convinced that my Ornates and Deserts don't really ever enter a full-blown hibernation/brumation. They'll peer out and even walk around during any winter rain. So far, I've seen them every month of the winter at least once. I know from examining the "burrows" in the spring that the Ornates and Deserts don't dig nearly as deep as the Easterns. I assume that this is why they're more affected by air temperature changes, because they're not even dug into the soil.
Try to think of the ground as more of a body of water. We all know that it takes sunlight, not really air temperatures, to warm large bodies of water. Air temperatures can play a role, but it is really both the distance the sun happens to be from the land and the length of day that affects most ground temperature. Of course, the way in which we now construct our yards tweaks this natural process which is why moving my pens to the other side of the yard has made the turtles emerge several weeks earlier. Basically, though, if you're keeping a box turtle in its natural habitat, a few abnormally warm days usually won't be enough to raise the temperature of the earth significantly. In some areas, warmer spring rains can also play a role in raising soil temperature.
Ready for this? Climatologists please correct me if I'm wrong. In the larger picture, it isn't air temperatures that affect ground temperatures. In fact, it's the other way around. Pressure systems and the Gulf Stream play only a minor role.