I normally like to keep out of these types of discussions. But I figured I’d put my input in and maybe my experiences will help some. First I think that speculating on future markets, well maybe a fun thing to do and a good way to pass time on a winter Saturday, really has no real value at all. The one question that I always ask myself is why does everyone just assume that if an animal is one price last year it HAS to drop the next? And I know that most will say supply and demand. Well, this certainly holds true for new projects. When there are a handful of a new mutation available the price is high and then a couple years down the road there are many more the price will fall. I totally understand this market dynamic. But when a market reaches a certain level, it really becomes more of a consumer product. Well I’m sure that everyone that buys a Spider for $800 would like to make money if they can, is it going to kill them if it doesn’t workout? Maybe they just love Spiders and really don’t care much about the return. And this is where I get confused, do you create a new market level when you drop Spiders from $800 to $500? I would think not. I would be willing to bet if someone wants a Spider they will pay $800 for it. I don’t think that they would say, I really want a Spider but I’m going to wait until they drop to $500. One of my points is that what are we telling future buyers about your product? Your time, your passion, your efforts aren’t worth what the market is now, that is the message that you are sending. Although I agree that a good business person always looks to past for trends, those trends aren’t always set in stone. If they were, Ghost Balls would be $500 a pair. It was just about five years ago that you could buy Ghost Balls all day long for $1500 a pair. Did they drop every year since? Now I want everyone to understand that I’m not attacking anyone and I believe that everyone on this board has the right intensions as well as the right to their opinions, I just believe that the way that we have been trained to think is a little off.
There are plenty of Cars manufactured every year, do prices fall? What do car companies do? They try to expand their market into new markets. In the reptile community I believe that we, myself included, have done a terrible job of this, almost like it’s an exclusive club. I could stand on a mountain a scream how much I love what I do. But normally I just sit quietly and say nothing. I know that we can reach a bigger audience with our passion. In my humble opinion that would fix our supply and demand problem. And maybe then we would value our offspring and our passion more. But what the hell do I know.
I’m truly sorry if I offended anyone, it was not my intention. Brian (BHB)
Reptile & Amphibian Forums
Welcome to kingsnake.com's message board system. Here you may share and discuss information with others about your favorite reptile and amphibian related topics such as care and feeding, caging requirements, permits and licenses, and more. Launched in 1997, the kingsnake.com message board system is one of the oldest and largest systems on the internet.
Market Speculation
Replies (44)
.
-----
Jason Gonzalez
PreMeditated Morphs
Cars and balls? Interesting.
I see a lot of cars that are at cheaper prices at end of year.
I look at it this way.....the animals I bought this year will not be the same price when I breed them and produce babies.....period!
The more morph out there the cheaper the morph. Economics 101. Supply and demand.
Codoms and dom will drop faster then simple recessive!
Wish my 2.2 $25,000.00 het pieds were still $25,000. And my 1.1 pied babies were $40,000.00.......yepper!
-----
RicK & Caitlyn @ Ball Boutique, Inc.
Ball Boutique,Inc.
Proud sponsor of this forum
Rick,you msay be right that car prices drop at the end of the year with rebates and such..But actually the following year's model is usually alittle more..2006 vs 2007 ....
And to Brian I could agree more.Well stated
Kevin
Apples and grapes.
How many F150's are produced.....hummmm
How many codoms will be produced say pastels this year?
1,000......100......5000?
How many years were pins $25,000.00?
Can you tell us Brian. Was it 2004? Or 2003?
-----
RicK & Caitlyn @ Ball Boutique, Inc.
Ball Boutique,Inc.
Proud sponsor of this forum
I would have to agree that you cannot compare cars and balls. When someone buys a car they buy just that, a car. When someone drops $2,500 on a pinstripe they bought not only a pinstripe ball python, they also bought a pinstripe breeding "factory".
People buy new cars because they need a car, and although a 10 year old one will due, they feel the need to impress the neighbors. My neighbors would think I was mental if I told them I spent $2,500 on a snake. To them I could have just gone out and caught one for free.
Also automakers don't make as many cars as possible to try to sell. They produce what they feel/know they can sell on the current market. Second level ball python breeders constantly out produce the market every year. And since most are just in it for a hobby, they can dump their snakes at a loss without losing sleep at night.
The world of reptile breeding has always been dominated by hobbyists. That is not going to change. The ball python market will probably end up like the leopard gecko market. With a few breeders making a living supplying pet stores, a few making some extra cash breeding a smaller amount of specialty morphs, and a whole bunch of hobbyists playing around with a rack full of leos.
Finally, someone who really thought before they replied and posted information based on fact and not emotion. Now, can we talk about something other than the "market"?
-----
Jay A. Martin
Jay Martin Reptiles
How many possible het females did you produce and hold back?
-----
Charles
Serious question for you...
Why are you in this Hobby, Market, etc???
-----
Thanks
Jon Dvoretz
Next World Exotics
www.nextworldexotics.com
The Hunters Guide to the Morphs
www.nextworldexotics.com/hg.htm
I am a S corporation and file an 1120 S tax form. I am retired school teacher.
And I enjoy working with combos!
What about you?
-----
RicK & Caitlyn @ Ball Boutique, Inc.
Ball Boutique,Inc.
Proud sponsor of this forum
You need a new hobby..I hear Inland Taipans are quite lucrative.
-----
Charles
I never said prices dont go down. Nor do i complain about the pricing. I just do not like it when someone pretends they know the future... You a not a seer and HAVE NO IDEA WHAT PRICES WILL BE IN THE FUTURE, so dont pretend to know! This is what hurts everyone. You can sell your animals for whatever you like, just dont tell us all what we have to sell them for. Becuase in effect when you post a reply like you did below that is what you are doing!
-----
Thanks
Jon Dvoretz
Next World Exotics
www.nextworldexotics.com
The Hunters Guide to the Morphs
www.nextworldexotics.com/hg.htm
Jon that was well said. And I hope your fishing business is going good. Also if I make it down to Florida (BTW BOOOOOOO Gators) I will look you up
-----
Damian Macioce
www.strongholdreptiles.com
Hello,
I don't see how talking price speculation can hurt the market. If it does then the market is 10 times worse off than anyone thinks. Just my $.02. Wish all a great breeding season. Ciao. Andrew
Thank you Brian.
-----
www.HeathersHerps.com
-Ohh, what a Lady-
I think there is a "separation" between Big Breeders, who can afford to house, hold onto, keep back, any unsold offspring and the smaller breeders who will try to get market price, try not to get emails saying you sold to cheap, but in the long run, if an animal does not sell for "market price" in 3-6 months, will probably lower their price vs. keep animals they do not need. Aside from the Ghost, I cannot think of a morph that went down in price, and then bounced back up in price. I do not understand the thread below, when someone just answered honestly, a question that was posed. I think some of the people in the business have Blinders on. I do not think answering a question honestly should have caused this much uproar, and because it did, it tells me more about the state of the market than anything up until this point. The market took a dump the last two years, over all, and some have yet to see or believe it. Maybe the dump was a market correction, the sale of $25K snakes would not last forever. Every customer turns into a "competitor," whether we will admit it or not. No other business is like this. Automobiles have a use other than to make more automobiles, so that is comparing apples to oranges. The people who bought Balls to make a million are seeing that that will probably not happen, and are bailing out. Too me, that is good news, and I think the market will correct itself in the next few years, and the price drops will be more consistant, like they used to be. Big breeders, and people who have spent huge money on their collections, smaller breeders, who have spent money, and done trades, and brokers, will always see things a bit differently. I hope things settle down in the next few years, when I can feel good about spending money again. For the newbies, buy what you like, not what you think will make you the most money, keep your collection manageable, where it does not become WORK, and you will do just fine. I see a bright future, just past the market correcting fog.
By the way Brian, my wife still loves the snake she got from you and Lori at the Anahiem show! She takes after me though, naming stuff just for fun, and is calling this reduced patterned female from you guys the Amoeba Ball. You guys are the best!
Dave
HI Dave,
I'm glad to see that your wife is happy with her snake. I wanted just to clear up that I'm not in an uproar at all about the post below. I have always said that the market takes care of itself. I just clean poop for a living
That being said,the analogy to cars was not in the context that you took it. I meant that we need to promote more, and show how facinating these animals can be without all the negativity. That doesn't mean that we can't look at the realistic market decline. It just means that we can try to continue to bring new people into the business. Not all investors, but people that have a passion for keeping snakes. If they make money great, if not then they will profit from their enjoyment. I'm not the "Big Breeder" that has blinders on, I just have a lot more optimisn about the future then most. I'm not trying to sell anyone a bill of goods.I just think that as the prices come down, a lot more people are willing to buy. So when we find the price point that sells all our inventory we don't need to continue to drop our price. But I agree that newer breeders don't have the luxury of hanging onto babies as long as some of us do. I really don't have the answer to that one??? But like you said, buy it because you like it we'll all be fine. I just wish that everyone wasn't so fixated on the impending doom.
In closing, I don't have a problem with speculating prices as long as it's in a proper light? What ever that means? Have a great breeding season Dave, Brian (BHB)
Brian sums it up here when he says he has OPTIMISM for the future. Be optimistic, enjoy your animals, learn from what happens and if you don't like it, adapt. Then start over and be optimistic...too much freakin stress here...it's bad for you. Let's talk about something else...my het. Caramel just bred his second girl...YEAH BABY!!!!!
-----
Dale....dgoins222@yahoo.com
That was Nice to see.Alot of People has this Woo is me outlook and thats not the way to be about any of this.We do it because we love it,and we love the Animals.....People just like to dwell on doom.And these are the People that need to look past that and say look at this great hobby I have and its Mine.I truly love it and the Satisfaction I get from owning.. raising even and breeding these great Animals.
Greg VanZweden 2nd
http://www.vanzwedenreptiles.com/
-----
I honestly think at least some of the Gloom and Doomers are those who WISH they had gotten into Balls, and like to kick the people who did while the market is down. Too me, those who missed the boat might be the luckiest, and should jump in now.
Dave
Brian, you are the man, and once again, show why!
Now, with all the speculation going on, let's see the pic of the possible Super Pin. Nobody will hold you to the fact that it is a Super Pin, but I would like to see what MIGHT be in store for us Pin breeders in the future.
Dave
C'mon just a little peek.
-----
Dale....dgoins222@yahoo.com
It takes time to move a animal you produce so maybe try to produce a number you can hold on to and not produce so many you need to slice the price to move it.
Forgot overhead.....I heard a guy got a second mortgage for an auto.....go figure!
-----
RicK & Caitlyn @ Ball Boutique, Inc.
Ball Boutique,Inc.
Proud sponsor of this forum
That would be nice. But then you will still have the people who will just produce as much as possible, and sell them at a low price to move them quick.
I have slowly gotten into breeding snakes over the past couple years (im 21), and have quite a few friends come over for drinks, card night, etc and when people are first shown my "snake room" the first general impression is always just complete shock. For girls its the "oh my god" with hands over their face. Then of course next up is them showing me how much they know about my snakes, by saying that they are poisonous and going to kill me. Or that my burms will swallow me whole. I believe this is where we need to expand our market, and I do my damn best job to do it. At this point I inform people how well tempered my ball pythons are and take one out (unless of course they are petrified, but in this case they wont put a foot into the room if they are). I then hold the python and tell them about it, and how they are really such an easy pet to care for, and how I have only been bitten a couple of times and I consider those times my fault (feedings, etc). At this point 99% of my friends will actually want to hold the snake, and like it from there on out (of course the "slimy skin" myth is gone by this point). From there on out they tell other people who come over, and are scared of my snakes, how really "cool" they are, and ask if they can hold one again or show someone else.
So to sum up all my ramblings if you guys want to target the younger market, which is the future, I would say its all about teaching and educating. We have to get people out of the "snakes are evil and will kill you" mode. I have also thought before that we need more hands-on stuff in our science classes. I remember my 6th grade science teacher having a large ball python in the room and everyone was always so scared of it. If the teacher would have simply took out the snake and told us some things about it then that could be hundreds or thousands of more "snake educated" kids. No knocks on teachers here,,,,or anyone for that matter,,,,,but I thought I would throw out here what I have found out so far.
Well said Brian. I wish more people had the same thoughts and veiws about the market instead of just dumping animals when they fear they are goi ng to be "worthless".
-----
Greg Power
B.O.A. Inc
boainc@gmail.com
The market crash of 1997 or so?????
I think all the newer(ball python mostly) people in the biz might not have even heard of those few years when alot, and I mean alot, of stuff tanked in price. Not Ball Pythons(they were just being developed), but EVERYTHING dropped to more reasonable levels.
What has happened since say, 1998, 1999? The market developed into a much bigger, much more expensive and dynamic market with tens of thousands of more hobyists and breeders....I think it is happening again and those that STICK with it....will come out better, just like those that stuck with it during the first major crash of 97'.
The big namers now......are still around now arent they....those that were well known and started dumping arent around anymore are they?
Anybody remember 97-98??
97 pieds were $40,000.00 a pair. Hets were $12,000.00.
Crash in 97?
-----
RicK & Caitlyn @ Ball Boutique, Inc.
Ball Boutique,Inc.
Proud sponsor of this forum
My mistake.....I got the years wrong....I'll get the right year(S) for you in a bit...got to find that article...
Rick,
He just stated
"Not Ball Pythons(they were just being developed), but EVERYTHING dropped to more reasonable levels."
I guess you missed or ignored that part in his post.
-----
....I would rather have a Bottle in front of me.....than a Frontal Lobotomy....
Rob Trenor
RK Reptiles
www.rkreptiles.com
www.rkreptiles.net
www.ballpythonmorphs.net
_____
Never heard of a 25k milk or corn.....
guess I missed it being the ball forum.....thanks for the heads up.
-----
RicK & Caitlyn @ Ball Boutique, Inc.
Ball Boutique,Inc.
Proud sponsor of this forum
Man, I was going crazy looking for the right year, and I believe I had it right the whole time....
Burms used to be the ball python of the industry back then and where considerately expensive , then dropped to a point of , like someone said, couldnt give them away.
That brought the market down in all areas......to reasonable levels.....the pieds and albino balls are what brought the market back up later......more and more people were looking for the next big thing......
I think that a drop from 800 to 500 would open a new market segment.
I am not a breeder, yet. And i never plan on being a big breeder. But it would be nice to be able to at least pay for my hobby with my hobby.
Now i have 1.2 normals and 1.0 het hypo. How many of these normal or possible het hatchlings would i have to sell to afford an 800 dollar snake? I could probably sell them for 20.00 to pet stores. Now simple math would tell me that i would have to sell 40 snakes. So if i get good clutches of say 6 eggs each it would still take years to save for a 800 dollar snake.
Now how many others are in the same boat? The 500 dollar snake is alot more attractive than the 800 dollar price tag.
And just how many newbies are going to start off with an 800 dollar spider?
Snakes are awesome animals but most people aren't going to put a months mortgage payment into a new hobby that could possibly never feed and soon die.
But then again if people just wanted to get into breeding colorful snakes they would just buy corns.
Oh and bhb do you ever do the show in Taylor? I would love to see some of your animals.
My opinions be them right or wrong
Chuck
I agree with you completely. I am the person who has been watching the ball python morphs on and off for several years but has not had the money to put into a nice morph.
Sure I could buy a pastel and work my way up but I own very small house on a limited budget and do not have much space to devote to large numbers of snakes. I think in a couple years I may be able to afford a snake much prettier than a pastel (always been a spider fan) for just a little more. I would find it worth my time to possibly breed such a snake because their look interests me so much more. Maybe set up a couple breeding pairs as a hobby to support my hobby. (Again I don't have a lot of room so I don't have space to be a serious breeder). As a result I would spend time to find the highest quality animals at the best price. I would not just buy the cheapest snake available because I would be looking at quality, not quantity.
I've bred betta's and angelfish in the past because it interested and amused me. Did I make a profit? Hell no. But I found them to be pretty fish. Same with snakes and I can guarantee you there are many of my type out here. I work at a pet store and people are always coming in who can't yet afford a nice snake, yet drool over the latest morphs.
I've also kept and bred cornsnakes (had to sell them when I moved) but I soon became bored. Nothing new seemed to be happening everything was already figured out, and ballpythons are more of a challenge, and seem to be somewhat like playing the lottery. It's funner. The way ball pythons seem to have so many more "oddball" (haha) and variable mutations than corns or leo's should guarantee the big breeders to continue to pave the way for us poorer folks who like the look of a particular snake, need side hobby, and enjoy keeping the animals.
Also how many ball pythons are still being imported from africa? How many cornsnakes are taken from the wild now for the pet trade? I think there is still many, many years before balls become the next corns. (How many corn eggs per clutch vs. balls)
Just my 2 cents.
appreciate the positive post and positive view. I’m so tired of the market whiners. I’ve actually been involved with ball pythons since 1990 and have seen the “market” (like any other market) make some remarkable turns. This is just another turn. The market is what it is. Deal with it.
As a person with a business background (BSBA Marketing/Finance), I couldn’t agree with you more about the exploration and development of alternate channels of marketing these awesome animals. I’ve already done a little of this and have had very positive results. The on-line classifieds, while an easy and good sales option, is not the only sales option. Developing new channels of sales does however require more effort than simply posting an on-line classified ad.
Thanks again for the “read worthy” post.
-----
Larry Walker
WebSite
all the time for dogs and cats that they have no intention of breeding. What does that mean? I dunno.
-----
"yeah, eagles have feathers hanging off of them too and I don't smoke --- out of them!" PS it was a dream catcher!
Now if someone could just talk Paris Hilton into carring around an axanthic killer bee in her Louis Vuitton instead of that little rat/dog thing we'll be set. LOL
who own $1000.00 dogs.
-----
"yeah, eagles have feathers hanging off of them too and I don't smoke --- out of them!" PS it was a dream catcher!
I totally agree with Brian that panicking about price drops publicly and making useless, ominous assumptions about the future of the ball python market does nothing to help the image of this industry in the eyes of the perspective buyer. We have to remember that we are producing what are essentially $50 ball pythons with expensive paint jobs (nit-pickers, please don't take this literally). No one NEEDS a designer ball python. The value of an animal is in the eye of the beholder and we are devaluing our own products by constantly speculating about "how cheap they will be tomorrow". The only message that sends to people who may be newly interested in this market, is to sit out for awhile while we all over-produce and cut each others throats to make our next sale. Count me out, please.
Aaron Jones
A and B Reptiles
P.S. Bob says ditto. He also says Brian has very nice hair.
I watched this entire post and couldnt agree more with Brian. But I always think about things while selling at shows and I was just wondering what everyone else thought..
#1 We do many many shows in our area, we are away on most weekends. And I have to say the only shows I see alot of Pieds ( 4 or more for sale) is Tinley and Daytona...(I dont do CA shows) At every local show, NY , PA, NH And so forth people always come up to our table and ask do you have any pieds? 9 times out of 10 there isnt even another pied for sale at the show to send them in the direction of. So why if there are almost none at the shows and people are still looking for them does the price continue to fall? I understand that Pete has a ton and I know alot of the big breeders have them readily available at the larger shows, but there arent tons around, not on everyones table like the pastel, so why does the price drop when people are buying them at the prices they are selling for already? I think that was Brains point on spiders, and I couldnt agree more.
#2 Poeple always say that Co-doms drop the fastest, I couldnt disagree more. Look at it this way a 100% het ghost is your (co-dom) and the ghost is you (super-dom) Hets always drop in price just as fast as co-doms do. Dom, Super forms, (Super pastels-Ivories-Lucys,and so on) Hold their value higher just like a ghost b.c they are more difficult to make. I think that co-doms and hets drop just as fast and visual (hets) and dom forms also stay close to eachother when prices fall. It takes just as much work to mass produce an Ivory as it does a Ghost. I have had a very close eye on the market for years now and I cant understand why people say the hets and visuals hold their value more, I believe that Dom and visual hets hold their value over hets and co-doms.
Sorry about the long post but just things that I think of. I love this trade and enjoy hatching and breeding new things every year. If the market completly crashed and I couldnt give my animals away I would still keep my Balls...Granted I may not be able to afford as many as I have now..lol.. But I would absolutley still have a nice collection
Kim
N.A.R.C
Is it the breeder that cashes in on greed by selling a very overpriced snake and unrealistically telling buyer price will stay stable or slow price reduction forever, or is it the guy who sells the snake for what people are WILLING to pay.
So, the sales line goes from make 10X your money 3 years to we only need to bring in 10X more buyers to make 10X your money ( the later is basically the definition of a pyramid scheme, funny that it is so frequently said here)
Chris
it is a form of a pyramid scheme but not the traditional type. for one new people are always comming into the hobby and those in the hobby usually stay for decades if not their whole life. In a traditional pyramid scheme, those on top gain money and power from the recruits of those under them (several cosmetic companies come to mind). Ball python breeders or any snake breeder gains no money or reward from sells of other parties below them on the pyramid, in fact once they make a sell, the buyer is an equal when it comes to selling that morph in the future. If I bought into the pied project from BHB (as an example since we did buy into this project from them, RDR, and Alan Bosch) his pieds in the future will be worth no more than mine, they can just hold onto the babies longer to wait for them to move at the market price.
A perfect example of what I observed in Daytona. There was one breeder that was doing a HUGE deal while I was at his table. This deal contained both recessive visables, co-dom hets and supers. The prices that were quoted and paid for in cash (btw I have never seen so much cash at one time, lol) at just below the retail market price and not a drastically lower wholesale price. When the buyer stated that he could go between several of the many ball people in daytona and get cheaper priced snakes this "big" breeder politly told him to do it and after he sees that no other people can supply the quanity and quality of his animals the buyer started counting money.
People are still buying if you stand behind your product. If you have no confidence in the animals you are producing then nobody else will either. I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that the animals we have acculmilated of the years are second to none and their offspring should follow suit but we will find that I will be wanting to keep everything, which is fine with me.
-----
Josh & Krysty Hutto
J&K Reptiles
Various Ball Pythons:::
1.0 striped vanilla
1.0 spider
1.2 Citrus Ghost and hets
1.2 Albino and hets
2.3 het Pied
0.6 50% poss het pied
1.1 Pastel (male has additional gene going on with him)
a bunch of normal female breeders
a bunch of normal female holdbacks and several rescued normal males
0.1 columbian boa, she's a feeding monster, controls my
over production of rats, lol
0.1 brazilian rainbow boa, another rat eating monster
1.1 corns
a BAD dog is MADE not bred, support the American Pit Bull Terrier as the greatest breed of dogs on Earth!!!!!
