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Peak Oil preperation for herpers???

johnavilla Feb 23, 2007 12:53 PM

I've been reading a lot about peak oil lately and according to some pretty conservative sources (such as a speech by Dick Chaney when he was CEO of Haliburton) it is a reality that we will have to deal with very soon. The peak is supposed to occur between 2005 and 2008 (it would have occurred in 1995 if OPEC hadn't cut production in the seventies) and then we experience at least a 3% shortfall in production every year (twice 5% shortfalls have caused price increases of 400%) resulting in the collapse of the oil based economy in at most 1 decade but probably much less. My question for you all is what you are going to do for your reptiles? I am educating myself on small scale power production but I don't know if there is really enough time or if that is all that will have to be done. We may have to eat our pets if things get as bad as they could. Any thoughts? for those of you who are totally unaware or want to brush up before answering some websites to check out are www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net www.postcarbon.org and www.fromthewilderness.com
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"yeah, eagles have feathers hanging off of them too and I don't smoke --- out of them!" PS it was a dream catcher!

Replies (26)

ratstar Feb 23, 2007 04:11 PM

Wow I guess that answers my question of "Are people really this insanely stupid?"

johnavilla Feb 23, 2007 04:29 PM

a remark like that could be taken many ways.
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Every one can be reasonable if you just find the right button.

nuthnbutbalz Feb 23, 2007 06:12 PM

i think he's saying that you believe what you are told rather than what you know. it's all propaganda and lies that line the pockets of politicians and big business and picks the pockets of the working class. thats how it's always been.
furthermore i think the original post had no place here. it was a thinly disguised proclamation of your political beliefs that really had little or nothing to do with this forum.

johnavilla Feb 24, 2007 08:06 AM

because the question is actually right along the same lines as asking a question like "Hey, I've been reading that the dams protecting New Orleans are insignificant. What do herpers in New Orleans intend to do If this is true?" Furthermore, if this situation is true, than it would hurt the politicians and business men for it to get out. There is a reason that OPEC countries and Oil companies often OVERSTATE their oil reserves. If investors think that the gravy train is in trouble, they pull their money and those companies perish. Also in the case of OPEC countries more oil means more power within OPEC. My Question for YOU. Have you researched this at all or are you just making a reactionary reply BASED ON YOUR UNINFORMED POLITICAL VIEWS. And while we are at it since you seem to know so much, what IS my political affiliation? Your equally UNINFORMED answer to this should give me a chuckle. One last thing, look up Hubbert's Peak.
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Every one can be reasonable if you just find the right button.

johnavilla Feb 24, 2007 08:15 AM

They are teaching this stuff in colleges which despite the opinion of the misinformed an uneducated do not teach fringe ideas.
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Every one can be reasonable if you just find the right button.

ratstar Feb 24, 2007 12:27 PM

I believe people will believe whatever their influences tell them to believe.

For instance
Such as some people actually believe that there is a "Mother Ship" coming back to get them when this so called planet "Earth" is going to self destruct.
Some believe that peanut farmers have slowly taken over the world using, of all things, peanut butter.

These cases while extreme are all actually true accounts of what people BELIEVE. Belief is as simple to explain. Its in the eye of the beholder.

I BELIEVE this is a forum about snakes. I dont believe this conversation has any place in here. I BELIEVE your discussion should be taken to the forums where the peanuts are taking over the world.

johnavilla Feb 24, 2007 01:40 PM

is not based on belief, it is based on empirical facts. In the middle of the last century Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil would peak in the early seventies BASED ON GEOLOGICAL EVIDENCE. It did in fact peak in 1970 and has been on a steady decline ever since. That is why we import oil. He also predicted when oil would peak world wide. He was off on that one because his calculations were based on steadily increasing production and in the mid 70's OPEC drastically cut back production. Taking account of that we should be hitting peak right about now. No reputable geologists outside of the oil industry have refuted Hubbert's peak in decades. I wrote this post because the science supports the claim that we are hitting peak oil and that has an effect on our ability to keep our animals warm and fed. Do you actually think that there is an infinite Santa's bag of oil in the ground? You should really do some reading and fact checking before responding but considering your purchase of a "Blood Ball" I guess self educating isn't your strong point. Just dive in head first, eh? I'm done with this flame war unless some one can actually sight evidence. So far I'm the only one that has.
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Every one can be reasonable if you just find the right button.

johnavilla Feb 24, 2007 01:48 PM

most of the worlds oil fields are already proven to be past peak, why do you think most of the exploration that is being done is at the bottom of the ocean. If we could get it elsewhere we would because it is easier.
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A bunch of healthy, happy snakes.

jdillow Feb 24, 2007 02:17 PM

I was under the impression that the oil production in the US and consumption of foriegn oil was based on a few different aspects.

1.Politicians owning stock in foriegn oil.
2.US Government regulation of oil production in the US
A.It is cheaper to avoid environmentalists and all the red tape if you are in another country
3.Cheaper to outsource production to areas with cheap labor
A.That's why it is cheaper to build an American Car in Canada with Japanese parts and use Mexican workers.
4.It is overall cheaper to import the final product than pump it refine it an manufacture the by products.

The relevancy of the question is there. How do we intend to provide for or animals should a shortage occure? I personally will continue to run the electricity that is pumped in from the generator at the power company that I'm fairly sure does not run on oil.

To address the paranoia: There are how many vehicles on the road, air, and water at any given minute of the day? They are all powered by the fuel industry. At this current moment, there has been now major shift in the fuel source(realizing Hybrid Vehicles, I'm talking MAJOR shifts)and the fact that oil is a non-renuable resource, it will run out. When is the big question.

Whether this is a politically motivated question or not, we are all adults and should act like it. If someone asks a question that is inappropriate for the forum, a simple redirection to the proper place would be more appropriate than name calling and pointing out others mistakes. I believe we have all made mistakes and will continue to make them. To quote my personal favorite speaker :Let he that has no sin cast the first stone.
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That which does not kill me postpones the inevitable.

johnavilla Feb 24, 2007 03:12 PM

for a reply that A; addresses the question and B; contains factual information as a basis for disagreement. Where to you live that your electricity is not dependent either directly on oil or on oil as a major link in the production chain, for example as necessary for mining and shipping coal or for lubricating turbines? As for the factors mentioned in our reliance on foreign oil, even if all of those factors are involved the fact remains that every reputable source, both pro and anti Big Oil, agrees that we hit peak in the continental U.S. in 1970. Once peak is hit world wide my understanding is that all of the hybrids in the world aren't going to matter because we'll still be using more than we can produce although a combination of all available alternatives may be able to keep local economies going. I also don't think that environmental concerns factor in because since 2001 Mt. top removal mining, which is illegal, has been going on in the southern Appellation Mt.s unchecked by the coal mining industry. To rephrase my question, in the case of an indefinitely extended black out how do people intend to keep their pets alive?
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A bunch of healthy, happy snakes.

jdillow Feb 24, 2007 03:35 PM

I personally plan on stocking up on those 48 hour heat packs for shipping.

I agree. We need to look at the possibility. Oil is a major factor in several aspects of daily life. It is used for fuel but the by products are endless. I have a friend that works in the synthetic lube industry. We are still a long way off for large industries to cut all oil consumption. The last time I checked, airlines don't have Hybrids. That would make it hard to ship overnight from NY to San Diego.
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That which does not kill me postpones the inevitable.

johnavilla Feb 24, 2007 03:47 PM

Like I said in my original post I'm looking into small scale energy production. So far the most promising thing I have found for worst case scenario is using a generator that runs on vegetable oil. Since the diesel engine was originally designed to run on peanut oil (look it up guys) it isn't hard to get it to run on vegetable oils and if the supply lines stop it isn't too hard to make an oil press and DIY. I'm not saying that things are going to come to that but since it is in the realm of possibility I am preparing for it.
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A bunch of healthy, happy snakes.

jdillow Feb 24, 2007 03:55 PM

Boy Scouts, Always Prepared!!!

There is no need to build a Dam in the Desert but it is good to carry an umbrella in case it rains.

My only question then is, when the bottom falls out, where will you get the vegies to press? It will require a lot.
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That which does not kill me postpones the inevitable.

ratstar Feb 24, 2007 03:12 PM

OK OK OK. To answer your question, no I wont be eating my snake. I will however resort to cannibalism. But to talk about this freely I'm headed to the cannibalist.com forum where it should be.

johnavilla Feb 24, 2007 03:29 PM

I just don't like being insulted without facts being presented. I do however truly believe that this is a pertinent question for this forum. Herpers have proven time and time again to be highly resourceful when it comes to keeping their electricity going for their pets. I thought that at least a couple of the tinkerers in the audience would have something to offer on this. As for cannibalism, I'm with you there. Been eying my neighbors but their pretty old so I think the meat might be stringy
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A bunch of healthy, happy snakes.

ratstar Feb 24, 2007 03:37 PM

Better than my neighbors, they are all gooey! Chances are I'd have to outlast them.

Honestly though, right now, my family all has solar panels on their houses and most of the time they dont even know about power outages (IF they arent running everything at once) their house stays warm (but dont think they've ever had a natural gas outage) and my brother is working on setting up windmills for even more self sufficency. If I were more worried and not renting this house I would be doing the same.

jdillow Feb 24, 2007 04:00 PM

I guess then the better, P.C. way of asking would be, "What do you guys do in case of a long term power outage?"

I worked with a rescue up in WA and they lost power twice for more than 4 days. Lost a lot of stuff. Sucks when the rescue goes down. If they had had an alternative means of power, they may have kept most if not all of what was lost.
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That which does not kill me postpones the inevitable.

Graniteer Feb 24, 2007 07:57 PM

I don't know about everyone else, but if for some reason there is a time when we no longer have enough of whatever, we could always burn wood to keep ourselves and our pets warm. As for eating my critters, I don't think it will ever come down to that. Unless we really do run out of electricity, and all the food in the fridge has gone bad, and I'm really hungry, and too lazy to look a little harder.

evercraig190 Feb 27, 2007 03:31 PM

I was so confused when i read that, i didnt know whether to laugh or laugh harder....are you really going to eat your animals..how insane...society is by no means going down, we are moving up...also, i guess you are one of those global warming people...if the earth is warming, then why was it negative 30 degrees in some places, and it snowed like 20 feet in some places...two words...looney toon.....

ps: this discussion does not belong here, but would fit right in on the left wing blog sites, the ones hoping that the vice president would have died and then the world would have been taken over by peanuts...
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0.2 normal ball pythons
0.2 normal Redtail boa
1.1 100% Het Albino Redtail boa
1.1 Bearded Dragon
0.1 GF Eryn (WC)
0.1 Brindle Boxer (Marley)

blindpig Feb 28, 2007 04:29 PM

Good question. Peak Oil will affect us sooner or later, be it 5 or 20 years. And even before it gets severe the cost of energy will get onerous, availability of supplies and food items could get iffy.

Depends upon where you live. Just figure what animals you could keep with little energy input and that you could feed from local resources. My rule of thumb is to avoid tropicals, critters needing food and heating through the winter. Downsize, you'll have other fish to fry when things start getting tough than keeping a big collection. Keep critters that hibernate,that will reduce energy input.

Sorry to burst anybody's bubble but this consumerist world which we live in is utterly unsustainable. Get used to it.

vichris Mar 01, 2007 07:17 AM

After that post............. I would say your name is appropriate!
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Vichris
"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane"- Marcus Aurelius

Vichris Variables

blindpig Mar 02, 2007 01:56 PM

Thanks for the cheap shot, Got anything of substance?

Graniteer Mar 02, 2007 04:00 PM

I have to go with Vichris on this one. The name is appropriate. Also, what sorts of lizards do you have if they don't require heat of some kind? I must be missing something, because I was always under the impression that if you had to add heat to the enclosure than the animal was tropical. And besides, what's better than a free market consumer economy? Unless, of course, N. Korea or the former USSR is your idea of a picnic.

vichris Mar 02, 2007 10:42 PM

Well since we have only used about 13% of the worlds KNOWN oil reserves and we have hardly tapped coal and we got tons of capacity for nuclear I don't see us running out of heating/cooling energy for at least 300 years. Oh and I did'nt mention natural gas. I emphasize KNOWN because in the past three years we have discovered huge previously unknown oil fields. The latest, off the coast of China.

I don't mean to be a jerk but these end of the world...., global warming....new ice age.... Y2K.....acid rain......sky is falling, type of discussions show a serious lack of critical thinking. These are really long reads but they address the problems we create when we approach a small problem with FEAR and do far more harm than good.

Sorry about the cheap shot. BTW Peak Oil is more about politics than oil. My background is Process Control.

Here are the links. This one address's fear. I've got lots more links like these. You won't find these in our simpleton main stream media outlets.
http://www.michaelcrichton.com/speeches/complexity/complexity.html

This one is about Peak Oil.

http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/





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Vichris
"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane"- Marcus Aurelius

Vichris Variables

blindpig Mar 03, 2007 08:14 AM

Don't know if this is really the place to have this conversation, just seems inappropriate for this forum. I'll provide this one link for your perusal and leave it at that:

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm

You'll find that it is quite apolitical.

The OP's query was legitimate, consider it fantasy if you will, get back to me in ten years.

For myself, I'm in my 50's and am looking to reduce my work load in any case. I'm getting rid of a bunch of pythons that I've accumulated as rescues over the years, about all of my critters are long term or CB, I'll just keep the rest well until they pass or can pass them on to suitable caretakers(lots of turtles). My final accquisition, as soon as I move the pythons, will be a few more Gila Monsters, which I consider ideal for my purposes, modest food requirements, low maintaince,long inactive period and good value for any young produced. Cool as hell too. Living in the south I'll have little problem providing required heat during activity period. The one fault in my plan is the Starotypus salvani, the male of which I hatched in '74, can't get rid of them, I'll have to do the best I can for them but it is not an ideal situation.

vichris Mar 03, 2007 09:45 AM

I found that artical VERY political. To begin with the chart towards the bottom indicates the USA is 20 years past peak oil and Canada is about 8 years past. Both of those numbers are pure fantasy, especially Canadas. I also note that the country with the largest oil reserves is not listed. Do you know which country that is?

The problem is, that here in the USA we have a NIMBY (not in my back yark) political climate. That's why we do most of our drilling offshore. There's LOTS of oil still on the land based regions of the USA. We just leave it there because of political, environmental, or perceived environmental concerns. BTW I was born in 1957.
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Vichris
"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane"- Marcus Aurelius

Vichris Variables

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