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I have been following with interest the previous threads on the Kingsnake Forums regarding the USGS map controversy. The logic they have used to make these potential range maps is extremely oversimplified and also quite in error. The process by which they used average temperature data to construct these maps is, on the surface, a good logical first step. Although other criteria such as available food supply at all life stages, shelter, water, etc. are important factors, climate is still definitely a major determining factor on range distribution. However, they somehow lost sight of the big picture after they moved forward from that point. They obviously made several major errors in their process of determining the assumed maximum extent of the distribution of this species in the U.S.

The first error was using the natural extreme northern range of Python molurus molurus, the Indian python, in their calculations regarding potential range extensions for the Burmese python, Python molurus bivittatus. They are correct in that P.m.molurus has as it’s northern most distribution, the northern Indus valley in northern Pakistan. The farthest north that this species has been found in Pakistan is about 33.5 degrees north latitude. On the other hand, P.m.bivittatus has only been recorded as far north as approximately 26.5 degrees north latitude both in southeast China and in northern Myanmar, formerly Burma.

The average annual coolest month daily temps for the northern most range of P.m.molurus in Pakistan are interesting. The average coolest month temp range is 60 to 65 F as a daily high and about 40 F as a nighttime low. However, the pythons indigenous to this area have evolved to survive in these temperatures, are a separate species, and are in no way related to any burmese pythons in the U.S. When looking at the same data for P.m.bivittatus, the average annual coolest month daily temps for their northern most range are slightly higher. The average coolest month temp range for this species is 65 to 70 F as daily highs and about 45 to 50 F as extreme nighttime lows. Once again however, the python populations native to these northern latitude areas have evolved over hundreds of thousands of years in these cooler climates. I would say without hesitation that probably 99% of the burmese pythons in the U.S. today are from original stock taken from southeast asian latitudes where the average daily coolest month nighttime lows never drop below 60 or 65 F. They are not cool climate representatives of the species, and are not genetically adapted to cooler, yet survivable climates like their northern conspecifics.

The second issue is the obvious mapping error with regards to the northern extent to which the burmese pythons might be expected to move north out of Florida. This is where it was obvious that they took the easy way out and made little effort to try and extrapolate the geographical climate data from the natural range distribution of this species. No disrespect intended, and I know he is not fully responsible for how the study was completed, but I would completely disagree with the comment in Mr. Rodda’s letter that “a rational process was used to derive the climate envelope that was then mapped onto the US”. Furthermore, contrary to what the say on the USGS website, these new “climate match” range maps definitely do not “show where climate in the U.S. is similar to places in which Burmese pythons live naturally”. That is purely bad science. I do not know who constructed this map, but I do know exactly how they came up with it. It appears that all they did was take the most current weather data on the average annual monthly daily low temp for city’s across the U.S. that corresponded to about 32 F, and then overlay that line on a U.S. map. I downloaded the weather data for numerous cities’s across the U.S. and mapped it myself. My map was very close to theirs except in the Oklahoma area where my line went across the southern portion of that state instead of the northern area as in their map. Apparently the scientists working on this project are under the erroneous assumption that P.m.bivattatus can survive anywhere the average daily low winter temps don’t drop below freezing. That shows a complete lack of understanding regarding the autecology of this species.

When I mapped for survivability of P.m.molurus based on climate data alone from their northern most range in Pakistan, I had a maximum northern range line in the U.S. from Savannah, GA to Mobile, AL to Baton Rouge, LA to San Antonio, TX. However, this was based solely on average temperatures and did not take into account suitable available habitat throughout the range, and did not take into account unusually cool years where temps would still fall below lethal limits. When putting together this same map from data for the burmese python, the survivability line is much farther south into Florida. I personally do not believe from this data that the burmese python could maintain a long-term viable, self-sustaining population, anywhere north of an east-west line through about Sarasota. I also intend to contact Mr. Rodda and express my concerns about how the data was compiled and interpreted in their study.

Kelly

One other potentially huge issues I think that was also overlooked is "human developmental barriers". "Human developmental barriers" is a term I just made up. There may be a scientifically recognized term for this. The United States of America is not the same as underdeveloped South East Asia.

Certainly some Pythons have become established in Florida, and on rare occasions have been seen in areas that are developed. However, these instances must be in locations that are in very close proximity to areas that are, in effect, wilderness and prime habitat. Prime habitat, that is undeveloped wilderness, even if the climate was conducive to it, is a rare thing in most of the Southern areas this fellow's illogical map details. The fact that the vast majority of these areas are developed, makes them rotten places to live. This is especially true if you happen to need to be at least 10' long in order to procreate. In the United States, southern areas or otherwise, the vast majority of lands are farmed or ranched. These areas have farmers coming through with $200,000 tractors pulling a 30' wide disc chopping anything in it's path to bits. They have massive combines chomping and harvesting everything in their path. leaving in their wake shreds of waste. These facts, if they don't make it impossible for Burmese Pythons to move North, would certainly dramatically slow the progress of such.

These farming fact is in stark contrast to places in Asia where most of the land is worked by hand. It is an easy thing to slide away if a farmer is hacking away near by with a hoe. It is much more difficult to take off if a John Deere is bearing down on you with those 10,000 pound liquid filled wheels.

There are already many species that are geographically isolated due man's development of the land. This is already a fact. In fact some species live in only very small pockets throughout the United States and no longer have continuous ranges due to the development of the land by mankind. To ignore this and assume that poorly analyzed climatic data be the only factor, in the possibility of the expansion of a species, is patently not only inaccurate but fundamentally dishonest. I imagine that if this range map was completed with facts in mind, it would have been far more limiting and thus much less memorable than the map that was developed is. This map was developed assuming that the climatic averages, poorly analyzed, were all that was necessary for a very large animal to expand it's range. Of course there are many other factors such as food supply, predation of neonates, temperature extremes, roadways and many other ignored facts that all have a detrimental impact upon existing species let alone the establishment of a new species, especially of a large species like the Burmese Python.

All of this is really a moot point because the climate alone would not allow the feared Burmese Python to move North anyhow.
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I so appreciate the rational and intelligent comments from those so much more articulate than myself.
jsc
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"As hard as I've tried, just can't NOT do this"
John Crickmer

How much will facts matter ? Some good points and nice research has been posted, but all of it is refutable with the introduction of scientific gray matter. That's how these guys operate. The what if factor. Possibility over probability.

When I wrote TP&W with my objections to the Turtle Ban, they had practically justified their whole case with conjecture and contrived goofy science replies to my concerns. There was no chance for rebuttal. It's not a courtroom. The process doesn't rely on or require facts.
John Crickmer

Right it's not a court room . In court speculation is inadmissible as evidence but here it's a powerful tool. The object is not to be right but to prove the other guy wrong. It's not a court case buts it's structured like one. We have the defense the plaintiff and the judge. With special expert testimonies. My guess based on past experience is that the plaintiff is going to throw every piece of speculation possible into the mix in an effort to discredit the defense. Under these conditions it can be very hard to counter this type of attack. In the past it's gone both ways for and against us. I think everyone should put their cups on.

Ernie Eison
westwoodreptiles.com

I agree completely. I appreciate anyone who has done research to counter the ridiculous map, but let's face it, if these people were interested in real science, the map would not have been published in the first place! Basically they are using a lack of evidence as evidence! It's ridiculous.

My opinion is that we need to play the game that they play. Get some publicity, and publicly embarrass whoever is behind this. If the "scientists" behind this map really believe in it, let's publicly bet them $100000 (or something non-monetary) that a Burmese python wouldn't last the winter in most of the areas. It's a really simple experiment - just release a few pythons w/ microchip implants. I'll be happy to commit to a large amount of money!

I've contacted the Glenn Beck show asking them to cover this, but so far no response. Maybe if a bunch of us do the same (or contact another media outlet), we can fight fire w/ fire, rather than trying to reason with an unreasonable adversary.

Thanks,
Ed

>>How much will facts matter ? Some good points and nice research has been posted, but all of it is refutable with the introduction of scientific gray matter. That's how these guys operate. The what if factor. Possibility over probability.
>>
>> When I wrote TP&W with my objections to the Turtle Ban, they had practically justified their whole case with conjecture and contrived goofy science replies to my concerns. There was no chance for rebuttal. It's not a courtroom. The process doesn't rely on or require facts.
>>John Crickmer
>>
>> Right it's not a court room . In court speculation is inadmissible as evidence but here it's a powerful tool. The object is not to be right but to prove the other guy wrong. It's not a court case buts it's structured like one. We have the defense the plaintiff and the judge. With special expert testimonies. My guess based on past experience is that the plaintiff is going to throw every piece of speculation possible into the mix in an effort to discredit the defense. Under these conditions it can be very hard to counter this type of attack. In the past it's gone both ways for and against us. I think everyone should put their cups on.
>>
>>Ernie Eison
>>westwoodreptiles.com

So let's assume that the burms down in the everglades decide that the weather is just too perfect for them and they want to head north. Well, they have the option of catching a cab and heading up I-95 North or I-75 North. BUT, the problem with cabs is that they're too darn expensive for such a long trip and everyone knows burms don't make much money. And, they can't afford the mini-van cabs because that's what they'll need at 25 feet long with 75 babies and all their luggage in tow!! Let's face it, a crown vic just doesn't offer the spur room that they need. So they're left with slithering. Hundreds and hundreds of miles.
Obstacle number one is getting past I-75/Alligator alley. Never been on it myself, but I hear it's not frequently traveled. There's plenty for them to eat though! So it's possible they could cross a few lanes late at night when no one is out there.
As they travel, they're going to notice that they're "boxed in" by I-75, I-95, and I-4. Now, if you've ever traveled any of those three interstates in the summer time (because let's face it, they aren't heading north for the winter, who does that??!!), if you don't drive 85 miles an hour, you'll get run over by an 18 wheeler or worse... TOURISTS! The only time there is a reprieve from the madness is during rush hours or during construction (which is neverending). In those cases, it's stop and go.
I live in Orlando and for those that don't know, I-4 connects I-75 running south to north on the west coast of Florida to I-95 running south to north on the east coast of Florida. We call it I-4 (even number) because it connect east and west despite the fact that for a large percentage of the time, it actually runs north-south. Oh, here in Orlando, some of us refer to I-4 as "I-snore" because traffic is so bad, it comes to a stand still and you can take a nap. No shortage of people, that's for sure. I just can't see a burm going unnoticed. However, we do have a problem. MAJOR food source in Orlando. There are GIANT mice, 6 ft tall! And huge dogs, and ducks, and AAACK! PRINCESSES! You can be sure the burms would wreak havoc at Disney! No more Mickey... Except in the other Disney theme parks! I digress...

So let's assume the burms make it past I-4 somehow, swallow Disney, stop over at Busch Gardens for some horses and beer, and head north again on their journey to take over the Southern US. They're going to run into the Ocala national forest as well as the University of Florida. And everyone knows burms love Gators so there will no longer be a school that dominates college sports because the burms are going to eat all of the athletic teams.
After they destroy a college town, they (and I say they because there was a collective decision made by the burms that the everglades were just no longer suitable habitat and they KNEW something better was abroad - a burmifest destiny if you will) head north further and NOW they have ANOTHER highway obstacle, I-10. I-10 does exactly what I-4 does, a few hundred miles south connecting I-75 to I-95.
IF they can make it past ALL of that chaos and take over the southern US, I say FORGET IT, THEY DESERVE TO WIN!

Thanks for reading, hope you enjoyed it. By the way, I have the flu so I'm not throwing out my A-game sarcasm today, forgive me

jb

Here's a map so you can see the interstates I'm referencing.

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Jonathan Brady
"Sarcasm is angers ugly cousin" -Dr. Buddy Rydell (Jack Nicholson) in "Anger Management".

You just keep on bringing the "B" game!!!! ROFLOL!!!!
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Thanks,

Dave Colling

www.rainbows-r-us-reptiles.com

0.1 Wife (WC and still very fiesty)
0.2 kids (CBB, a big part of our selective breeding program)

LOL, to many snakes to list, last count:
26.49 BRB
20.21 BCI
And those are only the breeders

lots.lots.lots feeder mice and rats

We are not very concerned here in europe so I did not go through the whole thing. But, I think that one more thing must be said about against that science fiction map.
Python molurus bivitatus is from my experience (17 years with bivitatus) and confirmed by veterinary records here in europe the most sensible python to temperature and humidity. Respiratory infections are more common than in any other species and the first cause of death. When it's start, what ever the treatment is,it becomes chronical with a fatal issue, just a matter of time.
I think than many breeders and vets could confirm that.

>>I have been following with interest the previous threads on the Kingsnake Forums regarding the USGS map controversy. The logic they have used to make these potential range maps is extremely oversimplified and also quite in error. The process by which they used average temperature data to construct these maps is, on the surface, a good logical first step. Although other criteria such as available food supply at all life stages, shelter, water, etc. are important factors, climate is still definitely a major determining factor on range distribution. However, they somehow lost sight of the big picture after they moved forward from that point. They obviously made several major errors in their process of determining the assumed maximum extent of the distribution of this species in the U.S.
>>
>>The first error was using the natural extreme northern range of Python molurus molurus, the Indian python, in their calculations regarding potential range extensions for the Burmese python, Python molurus bivittatus. They are correct in that P.m.molurus has as it’s northern most distribution, the northern Indus valley in northern Pakistan. The farthest north that this species has been found in Pakistan is about 33.5 degrees north latitude. On the other hand, P.m.bivittatus has only been recorded as far north as approximately 26.5 degrees north latitude both in southeast China and in northern Myanmar, formerly Burma.
>>
>>The average annual coolest month daily temps for the northern most range of P.m.molurus in Pakistan are interesting. The average coolest month temp range is 60 to 65 F as a daily high and about 40 F as a nighttime low. However, the pythons indigenous to this area have evolved to survive in these temperatures, are a separate species, and are in no way related to any burmese pythons in the U.S. When looking at the same data for P.m.bivittatus, the average annual coolest month daily temps for their northern most range are slightly higher. The average coolest month temp range for this species is 65 to 70 F as daily highs and about 45 to 50 F as extreme nighttime lows. Once again however, the python populations native to these northern latitude areas have evolved over hundreds of thousands of years in these cooler climates. I would say without hesitation that probably 99% of the burmese pythons in the U.S. today are from original stock taken from southeast asian latitudes where the average daily coolest month nighttime lows never drop below 60 or 65 F. They are not cool climate representatives of the species, and are not genetically adapted to cooler, yet survivable climates like their northern conspecifics.
>>
>>The second issue is the obvious mapping error with regards to the northern extent to which the burmese pythons might be expected to move north out of Florida. This is where it was obvious that they took the easy way out and made little effort to try and extrapolate the geographical climate data from the natural range distribution of this species. No disrespect intended, and I know he is not fully responsible for how the study was completed, but I would completely disagree with the comment in Mr. Rodda’s letter that “a rational process was used to derive the climate envelope that was then mapped onto the US”. Furthermore, contrary to what the say on the USGS website, these new “climate match” range maps definitely do not “show where climate in the U.S. is similar to places in which Burmese pythons live naturally”. That is purely bad science. I do not know who constructed this map, but I do know exactly how they came up with it. It appears that all they did was take the most current weather data on the average annual monthly daily low temp for city’s across the U.S. that corresponded to about 32 F, and then overlay that line on a U.S. map. I downloaded the weather data for numerous cities’s across the U.S. and mapped it myself. My map was very close to theirs except in the Oklahoma area where my line went across the southern portion of that state instead of the northern area as in their map. Apparently the scientists working on this project are under the erroneous assumption that P.m.bivattatus can survive anywhere the average daily low winter temps don’t drop below freezing. That shows a complete lack of understanding regarding the autecology of this species.
>>
>>When I mapped for survivability of P.m.molurus based on climate data alone from their northern most range in Pakistan, I had a maximum northern range line in the U.S. from Savannah, GA to Mobile, AL to Baton Rouge, LA to San Antonio, TX. However, this was based solely on average temperatures and did not take into account suitable available habitat throughout the range, and did not take into account unusually cool years where temps would still fall below lethal limits. When putting together this same map from data for the burmese python, the survivability line is much farther south into Florida. I personally do not believe from this data that the burmese python could maintain a long-term viable, self-sustaining population, anywhere north of an east-west line through about Sarasota. I also intend to contact Mr. Rodda and express my concerns about how the data was compiled and interpreted in their study.
>>
>>Kelly

You are quite correct in that burmese pythons show the greatest incidence of RI than any other python species in captivity. I see two main reasons behind this. The first goes back to my statement that most of the original stock in the US can be traced back to lower latitude southeast asian specimens that are not cool climate adapted to any degree. Very few if any cooler climate adapted specimens from extreme northern Myanmar or southern China have made it to US collections in the last 30 years.

Secondly, I started keeping burmese in the mid-1970's and RI issues were almost unheard of back then, and we were not near as careful with our daily temperature regimes as people are today. A few years later I ran into Bob Clark in Graduate school at the Univ. of Kansas and he got me started thinking about breeding them after I had seen the success he had with them. I then started producing young in the late 1970's. My point is that in the late 70's and into the mid 80's I was cooling adult male and female burmese into the mid to upper 60's at night and only back up into the low 80's as a daytime high during the breeding season. I never once had an issue with RI and the young produced were just as hardy. If you cooled burmese down like that today, you would definitely see RI issues in the majority of the specimens. Additionally, all my breeders were unrelated. I believe that the problem with RI in burmese over the last 15 years or so is linked to a very large degree to inbreeding and to a much lesser degree to overly high gestating temps. I think many people have also been seeing this same inbreeding - RI connection with boa constrictors as well over the last 10 years or so. This is especially so when attempting to create new morphs, and it's just part of the game, as it's the only way to do it. At this point in time it would be next to impossible to outbreed burmese to the point that the RI issue could be reversed, and furthermore, the market for these larger boids has shrunk considerably over the last decade making it less feasible.
It just requires greater attention to temperature regimes with burmese than in the past.

Kelly

iv been following this thread and read the many valid points, i havent seem any mention of future climate change and the effect that will have on large pythons and boas abilitys to survive and reproduce in areas where its currently not possible. if even some of the scary climate shifts occur that ur US agencys predict will occur then i think this nitpicking over lines on maps and there accuracy will be null and void.

Rgds
Fea

Not really.

Global warming/climate change projections are junk science whether you believe it is going on or not. The models they use are unable to come even close to being able to predict past weather conditions for which we have all the data and the outcomes. Thats not to mention that if the models worked we would have much more accurate weather forcasts for each day/season/year then we currently have.

Even if you accept some of the climate change predictions the rising water would disrupt/end the current ocean water movement patterns which are responsible for much of our warm weather. The net result would(given the climate change predictions) be much cooler temperatures across North America.

Personally I am undecided but suspect that most climate change is the result of long terms seasonal changes that are natural. Especially when you consider we know that the suns temperature is up and fluctating slightly from what it was earlier in the last century, the temperature of mars has also been going up, and the fact that earth has been warming ever since the last ice age. That doesn't mean we don't have global warming or even man made global warming but we definitely do not have enough information to make any kind of informed assertion.

Sean
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1.1 BRB
1.1 Triple Het TPRS's
0.1 Silver TPRS
1.1 Amel Bloodred Corns
0.1 Abbott Okeetee Corn
0.1 Blizzard Bloodred Corn
1.1 Thayeri Kingsnakes
0.1 Reeve's Turtle
0.2 Amstaff's
1.0 Pudytat

mars!? no wonder u people are in the mess ur in, u bury ur heads in the sand when it suits you, our view from across the pond is, its a mess of ur doing, u allowed it to happen, denied the existence of any problems or didnt care, basically a lot of us think u deserve what u get.

sorry to be the unpopular view

fea

Huh? With this flawless logic, excellent debating style and scientific prowess, I think there is an opening for you at the US Fish and Wildlife service!

Look at the maps again, the global warming issue is irrelevant.
The global warming speculation only means the snakes can survive in New Jersey rather than only as far north as Maryland. Either way it's ludicrous.

Thanks,
Ed

>>mars!? no wonder u people are in the mess ur in, u bury ur heads in the sand when it suits you, our view from across the pond is, its a mess of ur doing, u allowed it to happen, denied the existence of any problems or didnt care, basically a lot of us think u deserve what u get.
>>
>>sorry to be the unpopular view
>>
>>fea

Well I'm not sure exactly what you meant but you clearly misunderstood what I was saying.

I did not say global warming is happening or that it is not happening. I mearly said we have not yet been able to confirm any causal connection to the hypothesis of gloabal warming/climate change. All that is out there is, at this point, pure speculation.

Secondly I made the point that even if you allow for global warming most models which take into account ocean currents project a net cooling in north american due to a loss of the warming currents. Basically some areas like north america would get colder and others would get warmer. As a result even global warming wouldn't make the USA habitable by tropical species with the exception of south florida and maybe a couple other southern coast locals.

I did not mean to offend and am sorry if I did so. I just wanted to point out some of the fallacies of the arguments for the proposed bann.

Sean.
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1.1 BRB
1.1 Triple Het TPRS's
0.1 Silver TPRS
1.1 Amel Bloodred Corns
0.1 Abbott Okeetee Corn
0.1 Blizzard Bloodred Corn
1.1 Thayeri Kingsnakes
0.1 Reeve's Turtle
0.2 Amstaff's
1.0 Pudytat

the best post i've ever read. You've explained your science behind your findings clearly and effectively...i just hope it reaches their ears and minds before a decision is made.

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