Reptile & Amphibian Forums

my western female reputed to be het albino bred with a reputed het albino male also reputed 'het for red.' the 18 good eggs were laid about 50 days ago. first pip was last pm. second pip last PM at bedtime both with half the snake out. two babies out of egg this am and laying next to their eggs. two more out with two other pipping this evening. so far all normals. 2.2 so far, males slightly bigger thqan females so far.

until am check, what are the odds that all 18 hatch as normals if both paents were really hets for albino? i am too tired to do the math tonight.

thanks

winslow

My brain is a bit mush right now, but if I remember my genetics correctly, you have a 1 in 4 shot per egg, not for the entire clutch.
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Jenea
Guardian Reptiles

"When your memories are bigger than your dreams, you're headed for the grave" Author unknown

With 18 goods eggs, genetics predicts you would get about 4 albinos. Good luck and let us know the final tally!

Robert
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Robert Charvat
1.1 het albino Western Hognose

But the odds are per egg, not per clutch, so that is not really correct is it?
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Jenea
Guardian Reptiles

"When your memories are bigger than your dreams, you're headed for the grave" Author unknown

You are correct. Each egg has a 25% chance of producing an albino. The statistics are based on each egg and not the clutch.

However, as a breeder don't you want more eggs? more chances of producing an albino?

If a breeder sells a pair of hets and the buyer fails to produce an albino with a small clutch, say 12 eggs, the buyer is going to feel like he got ripped off.
It seems that the standard answer from many breeders is "you just missed the odds. Try again next yesr."

Over the years, my breedings of het x het and visual x het have yielded the same percentage chance that each egg has for the entire clutch. Not always in the first breeding but over a couple of clutches. The het x het and visual x het have given me approx. 25% or 50% of clutch as the visual morph.

Not directed at you or anybody on this forum. Not an attack. Just a couple of comments.

As stated by the others, the "odds" of 1 in 4 do not have to be close to the reality for a single clutch. For 1000 babies, well perhaps. Still, with 18 eggs, one would think you'd see at least 1 albino.

May your adults truly be hets.. (as you know in this business as well as in any business, there are those that lie and those that do not and those that make honest mistakes, and everything inbetween.)
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Mark

well,

i guess no statistics majors out there so far.

i recall from thirty or so years ago when i was in school some equation to figure out the odds that with 1 in 4 chance of an event occurring and having x number of events, in this case x = 18 and that you have a bell curve with standards of deviation. there was also a probability set of any combo occurring as well.

so far 12 hatched or pipped, all normals so far. interestingly these eggs have not shown any denting immediately pre hatch, and the babies are chunky little monkeys. i can definitely tell males from females when vents are side by side. and is it just my imagination, or are the male neonates generally a tad bigger than the females?

update tomorrow

winslow

>>
"what are the odds that all 18 hatch as normals if both parents were really hets for albino?"

three quarters raised to the 18th power = very tiny chance

(the odds of any one of them being normal phenotype is 75%, the odds of two out of two is (0.75 x 0.75), the odds of three out of three is (0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75), etc

HOGNOSE.COM

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Lindsay Pike
Urotopia Uromastyx

The odds of them all turning out normal are 0.0056377101 or about 1 in 175 chance (if my calculations are right).

It is true that each egg has a 1 in 4 chance of being albino, but this holds true for the clutch rate as well. As someone mentioned there is a bell curve, and the greater number of eggs that hatch, the closer to the 1 in 4 albino clutch rate is observed. Simple statistics dictate that the greater the N value the closer the actual outcome gets to the theoretical outcome.
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Robert Charvat
1.1 het albino Western Hognose

Lindsey, I hope you mean statistics and NOT sadistics....LOL...M. De Sade....LOL....TC

"Lindsey, I hope you mean statistics and NOT sadistics....LOL...M. De Sade....LOL....TC"

Well, if you had met the instuctor ... must've been a direct descendant of the Marquis.
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Lindsay Pike
Urotopia Uromastyx