Reptile & Amphibian Forums

Which is a good thing as I would love a nice Pastel or two. But since producing Pastels tends to be a, relatively speaking, shorter and less expensive process than many other morphs and since the prices are already lower than some other morphs, will the supply of Pastels soon exceed the demand? For example (based on a clutch of 4 and assuming probable statistics):

Pastel X Normal = 50% Pastel (one breeding season)
Albino X Normal = All 100% het Albino (one breeding season)

3 year later, if you line breed, you can get:

Pastel X Pastel (2) = 8 Supers? or At least Pastels - 16K
Albino X 100 het Albino (2) = 4 Albinos - 10K

The number of Pastels will grow exponentially as compared to the Albino (could also be Pied, Spider, etc.).

So, will these factors push down the prices of Pastels to the point of?

Any opinions?
-----
Jay A. Martin

I really would have thought that Pastel prices would have dropped more this year, but here are a couple reasons I think the pastel gene is staying high in price and in demand.

First off like you said the Pastel is an "easy" money maker. For those who want the high priced animals, but can not afford them, the pastel helps make this possible. With a relatively small investment, you can quickly afford a pied or some other higher priced morph.

Second the pastel has proven to be a GREAT combination snake. The Bumble Bee, Pewter, Super, and many more are proving this to be true. So many people are thinking of the next "designer" snake.

With these reasons and that fact that Ball Pythons are the "hottest" snake out there, the Pastel is very attractive for anyone thinking of owning a morph. I think the price will fall, but don't expect it to fall too quickly. Demand is much higher than supply in almost all Ball Python morphs right now, and probably will be for the next few years, if not longer. Just my two cents.
Jason

Just wanted to point out a few flaws in your original premise. First off you are assuming that both pastel babies in the original clutch are female. Assuming probable statistics, you would have 1 female and 1 male. So in line breeding you would only have 1 female to cross back to dad three years later. And THEN you would have 1 clutch consisting of 1 super, 2 pastels and 1 normal. (think het to het breeding)

Whereas in the case of the albino to normal breeding, all offspring would be het, you would have on average 2 females which would produce 8 offspring 3 years later for 4 albinos.

As far as which ones will make you more money? Who knows? The prices of pastels have actually increased this year over their price from last year. And albinos haven't changed much if at all. (from what I've been able to see) You'ld probably do about the same either way.

Mark

>>For example (based on a clutch of 4 and assuming probable >>statistics):
>>
>>Pastel X Normal = 50% Pastel (one breeding season)
>>Albino X Normal = All 100% het Albino (one breeding season)
>>
>>3 year later, if you line breed, you can get:
>>
>>Pastel X Pastel (2) = 8 Supers? or At least Pastels - 16K
>>Albino X 100 het Albino (2) = 4 Albinos - 10K
>>
>>The number of Pastels will grow exponentially as compared to the Albino (could also be Pied, Spider, etc.).
>>
>>So, will these factors push down the prices of Pastels to the point of?
>>
>>Any opinions?
>>-----
>>Jay A. Martin

>>Just wanted to point out a few flaws in your original premise. >>First off you are assuming that both pastel babies in the >>original clutch are female. Assuming probable statistics, you >>would have 1 female and 1 male. So in line breeding you would

Out of a clutch of 4, I'm basing my ponderings on a clutch of 50% male, 50% female. Therefore, you have two females to breed. But I know what you are saying: 1 Pastel male and 1 Pastel female. This is even better. This Pastel male can breed sooner than the female and produce Pastels. Any way you slice it, you'll get a greater number of Pastels than say with the Albino.

>>only have 1 female to cross back to dad three years later. And >>THEN you would have 1 clutch consisting of 1 super, 2 pastels >>and 1 normal. (think het to het breeding)

I knew I was off on that one. That's why I based the price of 16K on plain old Pastels.

>>Whereas in the case of the albino to normal breeding, all >>offspring would be het, you would have on average 2 females >>which would produce 8 offspring 3 years later for 4 albinos.

Yep. You are right. But try selling Albino hets vs selling Pastels.

>>As far as which ones will make you more money? Who knows? The >>prices of pastels have actually increased this year over their >>price from last year. And albinos haven't changed much if at >>all. (from what I've been able to see) You'ld probably do >>about the same either way.

I'm not really concerned about making money. I was just curious as to what effect the visible het (Pastel) would do to itself in terms of pricing. There are tons of hets out there that few will buy. Just ask Ken F. and myself. But a Pastel on the other hand... It seems the market will soon be flooded.

I'm not sure on the pricing. It's still in flux. I have seen '03 Pastels from 1K to 4K. There certainly are differences in quaility. Albinos have dropped at least a 1/3 in price over the last two years. Pieds as well but I have not tracked those prices.

Thanks for the input and corrections.

>>For example (based on a clutch of 4 and assuming probable >>statistics):
>>
>>Pastel X Normal = 50% Pastel (one breeding season)
>>Albino X Normal = All 100% het Albino (one breeding season)
>>
>>3 year later, if you line breed, you can get:
>>
>>Pastel X Pastel (2) = 8 Supers? or At least Pastels - 16K
>>Albino X 100 het Albino (2) = 4 Albinos - 10K
>>
>>The number of Pastels will grow exponentially as compared to the Albino (could also be Pied, Spider, etc.).
>>
>>So, will these factors push down the prices of Pastels to the point of?
>>
>>Any opinions?
>>-----
>>Jay A. Martin
-----
Jay A. Martin

Look at all the posts on here about people who have pastels. I don't know if the market will get saturated any time soon, but I do think the price will drop next year to around $500 each for males. Males could be had for $800 this year, so they might even drop further than $500. I think that females will stay relatively high because of the combos you can make with them.

Once pastel males do hit around $500, I think they'll stay there for quite a while. I think that the demand will be very great once pastels reach this price; an incredible amount of people will then be able to afford them. In fact, I think that the low price for males now has added fuel to the pastel's demand. People are always commenting on here about how the pastel is their favorite morph. Oftentimes, it just so happens that they own one because it's the only morph they could afford.

Jake

I feel that the demand for pastels will be greater than ever, with the price drop; this will make the pastel more attainable for people who want a morph and still don't want to pay $2500 for an albino. The market won't be saturated for many years to come, BP's still have small clutches comparatively speaking, and only half of that small clutch will be pastel. BTW, if it were as easy as you say to get a super, they wouldn't be $20,000. Just because there is a 25% chance of hatching a super, does not mean that out of every 4 eggs that pip will have a super inside. The odds are per egg, that's 25% PER EGG that there might be a super inside. Odds of getting one aren't really that good if you own just a few.

As the price falls, the number of people whom can afford them at the lower price increases so dramatically it isn't even funny. And at $500 there are sooooo many people that would want one. So in my opinion, as the price falls, it will fall slower and slower. That's the beauty.

Also, Balls have small clutches. So the supply will never really be that great.
-----

there are a lot of people who breed 6, 7, or 8 females to their males. I think that historically species with big clutches, i.e. burms, haven't been bred with multiple females like this. Therefore, I think that while each female has small clutches, total output is still fairly high.

Jake

You're right it is possible to produce tons of balls by breeding many females... but there is a space and time issue for your average breeder.

Housing large numbers of females isn't a problem for your full time breeder, but the vast majority of breeders are "basement/bedroom" breeders, most of which work a full time job and probably do not have the space or time to take care of an extremely large collection. Not to mention the fact that your females are probably not going to lay every single year.

I still think the small clutch sizes play a significant role in limiting mass production, thus helping to keep prices high.
-----
-Ross Payan - www.LeosAnonymous.com

Leos Anonymous

Ball Pythons, Red Striped Leos, W.Hognose and Screaming AFT's

If you use this logic though, Burmese prices wouldn't fall so quickly because of the space requirements they have. Think about how many female balls you could fit into the space a pair of burms would require(the one additional male ball's cage would need to be included as well).

Jake

I disagree with the price hitting 500 I am still seeing people getting 1500 for males and as far as females go if you have ANY available that or 01 or 02 animals get in touch with me I will but everyone My "normal" pastel is actually my favorite animal and I have quite a few other morphs including a spider..

Bryan

Link

Just because you've seen really nice ones going for $1500 this year doesn't mean that they won't drop down to $500 next year. I'm not talking about the most expensive price. I'm talking about the normal, or average price. This year, the normal price for males was $800-$1000. I still think that they'll drop down to $500 next year. BTW, the most expensive male pastels I've seen this year were $1200 for exceptional ones from Greg Graziani.

Jake

here is what I posted below - Pastels vs Albinos

Okay 1.5 Pastels at $750 and $1,500 = $8,250
1.5 Albinos at $2,000 and $2,000 = $12,000
1.0 Albino at $2,000 and .05 het Albinos at $650 = $5,250

As Adults with 4 good eggs each
*Pastels - 5 Supers $15,000 each and 10 pastels at $2,250
pair. Total $86,250
*Albinos - 20 Albinos at $2,000 each. Total $40,000
*Hets Albinos - 10 Albinos at 2,000 each. Total $20,000
These are sell out prices this year

If you think that every one of your females will be laying 4 eggs every year...think again. This is especially true of someone who appears to just be flirting with the idea of breeding. If the numbers you were throwing out seem right to you, and if you think prices will stay level over the next three years... let me offer some advice to you. People don't get in to breeding ball pythons and suddenly become rich. It takes patience and experience to make it in this business...start out with a breeding pair or a trio first to see if this is going to be a commitment you can make. After that you can talk about risking $10K on some snakes.

Do you know who I am? NO. Do you know what I have? NO. So get some coffee and think before you start running your mouth. I made a presentation of what each Pastel and Albino would make and with only 4 good eggs(not much to be expected). This was all things being equal. And had you used your imagination you would have considered that you bought these 2-3 years ago and now producing this year. Or if you wish, consider buying them now and see what you get in 2-3 years from each. Ill even challenge you go buy 1.5 Albinos and see what you make your first year of breeding compared to 1.5 Pastels. THINK before responding too loudly. With a Spider male in 2 years you could make (2) Spiders/het Albino from each female producing 4 good eggs. And with this same Spider male you could produce 1 BumbleBee and 1 Spider from each Pastel female. Do you still wish to race and put your money where your mouth is?

Up until this point, all of your posts have been in a hypothetical tone. From this I deduced your "breeding business" was hypothetical. The use of general multiplication formulas does not apply to this business. If you had been in the business, you would have known this, and left them from your posts. Both pastels and albinos are good investments, each for different reasons. Multiplying some numbers using today's prices will not prove your point. Take a deep breath and lets get back to the reason we are here...the snakes.

"Multiplying some numbers using today's prices will not prove your point." - I guess you didnt read where I said with all things being equal.
I certainly feel that you will not take up my challenge even though I know that you are protecting the prices of the precious Albinos you have already. Do you have that 1.5 ready - babies, sub-adults, or adults ready to breed? I can get 1.5 Pastels and race you to $50,000

No...I do not have 1.5 albinos. And no breeder on this board would agree to your uniformed, egotistical, and simply unrealistic "race". First of all, any informed hobbyist would know that the most economical way to start an albino colony is through 1 male and multiple het females. Buying 5 female albino ball pythons for breeding to a male albino is simply not done. (Maybe to a couple of axanthic males.) Listen uranoddball, I DON'T CARE what you wish you could buy and how much money you wish you could squeeze out of them. What I do know is that the pastel price will be dropping significantly faster than the albino price, despite the supers and possible combinations. They are BOTH good investments right now. Educate yourself before throwing out 5 figure numbers about snakes you don't have.

I was all the willing to put my theory to the test, but you obviously was only willing to challenge this with your hollow words and hollow wallet. I have no egg on my face nor do I have my tail inbetween my legs running. My point is clear as day and everyone with a great mind knows that Pastel adult females are worth far more than Albino adult females because their potential. Conclusion... Pastel female babies are worth more than Albino female babies.
And let us not even go to adult Pastel male making half Pastels x to normal adult female VS adult Albino male x to normal adult females making hets that everyone and their mother is selling and cannot.
The market for these 2 animals are off, end of story.

np

"great minds" ....lol

Posted by: uraoddball at Fri Sep 5 23:33:50 2003

I am new to all this, maybe I am crazy, but why is a Pastel pair cheaper than an Albino pair? Normally a Pastel female is cheaper than an Albino female, this is puzzling to me. As adults Pastel females are far more valuable than an Albino females.

---Never thought anyone would read this page multiple days in a row? lol

If you want to get the right answer you should ask the right question! And here the question is not about maths, but about fashion!
It make me laught when I see what price are asked today for some morphs. For the moment there's a big interest everywhere into breeding snakes and trying to get a new morph supposed to turn crazy everybody's head.
Well... ten years ago it was about Swatchs (ya, the clocks!), and twenty years ago about pins! I've seen some people pay $30,000 for a Picasso Swatch and almost fight to get it, and today this 'thing" is priced around $100...
So, before thinking about becoming rich or poor with a new color or pattern, you should ask yourself about the value of a super-pastel-spider-ghost-mojave in 10 years when everybody will probably not care anymore about all that...
It seems to me better to care first about animals, and who care if it's a ugly double-het or a marvelous common morph? The point is to take a good care of both, and there's no reason to like the first more than the second!
I mean, if your are a real herpotologist, of course...

>>If you want to get the right answer you should ask the right >>question! And here the question is not about maths, but about >>fashion!

Sure. Today the Pastel is all the rave. Tomorrow it will be the Birdfeather Flying Ball and the Pastel will be silently placed on a shelf of has beens. Well to an extent anyway. But that's what I'm trying to ask. The longer an animal is "out of reach" (like the Pied) the longer it will/can hold its value. Since the Pastel is within reach of almost everyone, one would argue that the price will come down - faster than the harder to aquire morphs.

>>It make me laught when I see what price are asked today for >>some morphs. For the moment there's a big interest everywhere

Laugh all you want. There are many who are laughing all the way to the bank. And there are still others (myself included) that just enjoy whatever we can get, including "normals".

>>into breeding snakes and trying to get a new morph supposed to >>turn crazy everybody's head.
>>Well... ten years ago it was about Swatchs (ya, the clocks!), >>and twenty years ago about pins! I've seen some people pay >>$30,000 for a Picasso Swatch and almost fight to get it, and >>today this 'thing" is priced around $100...

Personally, I don't see this fad ending anytime soon. But like most good things, I'm sure it will change.

>>So, before thinking about becoming rich or poor with a new

I don't do this for the money. If I did, I would be living in a box by now.

>>color or pattern, you should ask yourself about the value of a >>super-pastel-spider-ghost-mojave in 10 years when everybody >>will probably not care anymore about all that...
>>It seems to me better to care first about animals, and who >>care if it's a ugly double-het or a marvelous common morph? >>The point is to take a good care of both, and there's no >>reason to like the first more than the second!
>>I mean, if your are a real herpotologist, of course...

I'm not sure where this fits into this conversation. I have morphs and I have normals. All are treated equally well.

Again, this thread was not about getting rich. It was started to explore how the relative easy supply and low price of Pastels will effect itself in the long run.

-----
Jay A. Martin

Cool... My intention was not to agress you, and my answer was more general than specially directed on you.

I've started with snakes in 1982, that's not yesterday, and I can tell you that in those times it was pretty confidential as hobby! We had to use aquiarium stuff for terrariums, that was pretty funny, in fact! Add to that that I'm french, and France is a little maket compared to the US, and you'll understand what I'm talking about.

Today there's clearly a fashion about morphs. As always in this kind of stuff the firsts to do it are making , always for a limited time, some money, and the lasts to get into the business are [bleep]ed deep in the ass by the firsts.
So let's say the right question is at what point are we today? For sure not the beginning and as you need around 3 years to breed a baby it could happen that before you get those valuable animals the fashion has gone...

It seems to me that some breeders are now taking outrageous advantage of morph fashion and play a game that I refuse. My view is that it's may be not necessary to keep running after what the others are not supposed to have, that's all.
But obviously every body is free to act as he want.

Don't feel bad about my words, I was just doing here a bit of philosophy about fashion. Regarding morphs and even herp in general I'll be very surprised if all that is still to today's point in a few years... But here also evebody has the right to predict the opposite... We'll see in the future how things will turn... I hope you'll get what you looking after and anyway, as I've said before, the main goal is to take good care of all kind of animals and to find pleasure at it. It seems that it's the case for both of us, so keep enjoy it, as I will.

Ps : For the laughing money at the bank I personnaly have a better way than breeding snakes. There's no fashion at stock exchange and here, for sure, maths help a lot!

I didn't take anything personal and neither should you

While reading your post, it struck me that in 1982 computers and internet communication were not, well, as prolific as it is now. I wonder how much this medium has helped to make this "fashion" what it is today.
-----
Jay A. Martin

Right! New mediums bring new businesses and new standards...
And I think that we can tell that more than just help, the web has entirely made this one, because I can't see how it could be possible to trade morphs at this scale out of the Internet, excepted to a very few people around you.
I remember that in the beginning 80's I've bought an adult ball with green eyes and light colors (probably a WC Jungle) and everybody around me was stupefied about him. Today such a jungle would probably be considered as a very basic, almost common one... Things change.

Have a nice day.
Pascal