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Simple question about "hets"

s2n Dec 11, 2008 04:52 PM

If I purchased a pair of "100% real hets" from a reputable breeder. Say and unrelated pair of "het for albino".

And these 2 regals, bred and laid say 6 eggs.

What would my chances be of getting at least one "albino"?

Thanks in advance for your input.

Respectfully,
Jarrett
"Away from the herp world for the past 7 years.... Thanks to the trouble in the Middle East"

0.0 anything..looking to rebuild my collection

Replies (9)

Danne Dec 11, 2008 05:03 PM

25% would be albino, 25% would be normal and 50% would be hets. So therefore if the odds play out about:

3 hets
1-2 normals
1-2 albinos

But those are odds, it could come out all albinos, all normals, or any combination of those. The normals would also be sold or labeled as 66% hets since you can't tell a het from a normal visually. So basically you'd expect to get 1-2 albinos and 4-5 66% hets.
-----
Danne
---------
1.0 '07 BRB "Monroe"
1.0 '08 BRB 66% het Anery "Ace"
1.0 '08 Pastel BP "Sebastian"
1.1 Leos "Bowser & Peach"
0.2 Dumbo (non-feeder) rats "Josie & Holly"

Email = dshoback@eden.rutgers.edu

kavo Dec 11, 2008 05:06 PM

Each egg will have a 25% of being an albino.

You could get 6 albinos.

You could get no albinos.

s2n Dec 11, 2008 06:12 PM

If anyone has tried this type of breeding with "hets". Would you please mind sharing your personal results?

Also....

How does someone new to "morphs" guarantee or as close as possible guarantee they are actually getting a real "het", and not simply just being ripped off by some guy claiming he has hets, when infact he's selling some "farm hatched fabulous bush baby fresh import"

Again thanks for your input.

Happy Holidays from our family to your's.

Respectfully,
Jarrett

toshamc Dec 11, 2008 06:44 PM

There are a lot of people that hit the odds and a lot of people that don't. The same pair that gives you nothing one year can make up for it the next.

The best place to buy real hets is from a reliable source - to find a reliable source -- ask around.

Sorry there just aren't any guarantees.

Good luck.
-----
Tosha
JET Pythons
Toshas Blog

exoticball Dec 12, 2008 01:04 AM

You have to find someone you can trust. If you are buying hets there is no way to tell for sure with out breeding so you are going to have to base your purchase off of how reliable the breeder presents him/her self. Some breeders will give you documentation and some will offer guarantees but none of them really mean anything if it is coming from an untrustworthy source. Take time, ask questions, if you feel something pulling in the back of your mind saying run, just listen and go, there are other breeders out there.

Also check into the blood lines, i think some recessive genes need to be the same line for them to show.

ssnakes Dec 12, 2008 12:38 PM

I bred 100% het Pied to 100% het Pied and take a look at what I got. These were terrific odds and odds that I certainly did not expect to get. But it does happen. This was a six egg clutch and I really expected to get 1-2 Pieds.

Paul Hollander Dec 12, 2008 09:02 AM

The probability of getting a normal from a het albino x het albino mating is 0.75. The probability of getting all normals from 6 eggs is 0.75^6. So the probability of getting at least one albino from 6 eggs is 1 - 0.75^6 = 1 - 0.18 = 0.82 or 82%.

82% is pretty good odds, but sometimes the luck of the draw goes against you. I would not give up on the parents until the odds of getting at least one albino was 99%, which takes 17 eggs, or around 3 clutches. Or if 3 clutches seems a long time, the odds from 12 eggs gives 97% probability of getting at least one albino.

Paul Hollander

Shawn_T Dec 12, 2008 09:26 AM

Paul, I dont think I have a chance against you in Arithmetic! lol
Hey everyone, I second what Paul said!

Happy Holidays everyone!
Shawn

Shawn_T Dec 12, 2008 09:17 AM

Hey Jarrett, first off thanks for your service! Feel free to contact me, and we can swap war stories and talk snakes. Hopefully I will be able to help you keep from making the mistakes I made!

Shawn Turnage
www.twistedconstrictors.com

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