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The odds got worse

JPCONS Apr 20, 2009 07:32 PM

I took the babies out of the cage tonight from my stripe litter. The final total was 37 babies(6 were hiding in the aspen) 36 with stripes and one and only one albino. This really has my mind wondering. Here are some updated photos.





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www.jpcboas.com

Replies (14)

Guy Scavone II Apr 20, 2009 07:57 PM

bummer on the odds, but look at the bright side, those are some smoking striped babies!!!! Nice work.

mike_panic Apr 20, 2009 08:10 PM

any chance he(the albino is a paradox? Nice litter. Best of luck with them. Mike Panichi
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honesty is my only policy

Randall_Turner Apr 20, 2009 08:11 PM

Even though you had terrible odds(depending how ya look at it lol) on the albinos, those stripes are beauties.
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Randall L Turner Jr.
Boas make the world go round.

symetryexotics Apr 20, 2009 09:36 PM

Hey there. That is weird aboutthe odds, but the odds of the
stripes sure worked out huh!? lol!! Very nice

Explicit_Reptiles Apr 20, 2009 09:50 PM

Those are some crazy odds but on a side note that is one nice litter and one nice Albino. I say try that breeding again next year and see what you come out with. I dont really see 2 snakes being mistaken for normals when there not. Where they purchased from 2 different breeders?
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Chris Farmer
Explicit Reptiles
www.ExplicitReptiles.com

snowboas Apr 20, 2009 10:36 PM

the parents are both het for albinos...
With 1 out of 37 babies, it would be a
1/137,438,953,472 chance to only get 1 albino out of that clutch.

this makes me think it's more likely a new mutation (not necessarily new morph) caused this...any other thoughts?
Jeremy

mike_panic Apr 20, 2009 10:49 PM

which is kind of why I asked if it could be a paradox. Unless its the photos, to me, it looks different than other albinos. Mike Panichi
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honesty is my only policy

patoquack Apr 20, 2009 11:25 PM

if there's even a very small chance - as you are saying, then how can it be "statistically impossible"?? statistically improbable perhaps, but not impossible. just wanted to throw that out. but good job on the math. I wouldn't even be able to guess at how to do that.

Patrick
Image

LarM Apr 21, 2009 12:00 AM

I was thinking and said the same thing.Makes you wonder if it
wasn't a spontaneous mutation.
This breeding has to be repeated ! LOL
I demand it ! LOL

. . . Lar M
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Boas By Klevitz
Boas By Klevitz

Carlos F. Apr 21, 2009 01:13 AM

It would be like picking a number between 1, 2, 3, and 4 and having a stranger guess what it is. Then picking again and having the stranger guess again. Then repeating the process for a total of 37 times and the stranger only guessing right once. Although it would be improbable it is not impossible.

I also think your math might be off but I'm not smart enough to figure out what the right math is. In a het to het breeding...

1 albino out of 1 offspring = 1/4

1 albino out of 2 offspring = 3/8 (6/16)

1 albino out of 3 offspring = 25/64

I'm not sure how you got to the 1/137,438,953,472 figure but it doesn't seem right. I know 137,438,953,472 is the square root of 18,889,465,931,478,580,854,784 which is the total number of possible outcomes there is a single gene, het x het breeding with 37 babies but I don't see how that relationship plays a part.

snowboas Apr 21, 2009 08:34 AM

math was simple....at least this is how I did it....
Actally, numbers would be lower b/c I ran off of 50% prob...my error rather than 25% odds at hitting a visual...

chances of getting a nonvisual 36 times in a row would be the
3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 (36 times out)...it would come out to a .0000238% chance or 238/10,000,000...you can then simplify it out...

I guess that's a lot better odds. Regardless, it's pretty amazing (not impossible)

kirby Apr 21, 2009 06:00 AM

In the last few years several people have posted results like this with known hets that only produced one visible morph out of I believe in one case over 40 babies. Unless this albino is not genetically compatible with the Kahl strain I think it may be hard to prove that this is a mutation other than breeding each parent with known hets or albinos.
Bill Kirby

dan80woma Apr 21, 2009 07:29 AM

I know someone who had a het to het (proven) have a 20 plus litter with no albinos. I know its rare, but it happens.

henke2 Apr 22, 2009 11:36 AM

Hi

I got 19 babies from a het leopard* het leopard breeding last year, and only 1 leopard and it was stillborn.

Sometimes the odds are just bad.

Regards Henke

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