Reptile & Amphibian Forums

I have a Het pied female that bred with a male pastel.
I hatched 7 babies, waiting for a shed now..
I am wanting to know about how many are het pied and if there is any other way other than to look for the traits and prove it out to be sure?
-----
My collection...

Albino and albino het ball pair
Trio yellow belly balls
Pair Het pieds
2 Mojave Female balls
1 Unidentified ball morph
1 Suriname red tail

Basically you have a 50/50 shot of them being het pied, so...you pretty much have to grow them up, breed them, and hope for the best.
-----
"What is man without the beasts?
If all the beasts were gone,
men would die from great loneliness of spirit.
For what happens to the beasts,
soon happens to men.
All things are connected."

-Chief Seattle (Duwamish Tribe)

Exactly for each one you have 1 chance in 2 that it's a het.

But your question, is probably, how much chance I have a pastel het pied ? isn't it ?

Let's say that all 7 are pastel (probably not).

Let's say N is for normal and P for pied

so what are the possible combination between those 7 snake

PPPPPPP (all het pieds)
PNNNNNN (first is pied)
NPNNNNN (second is pied)
NNPNNNN
NNNPNNN
NNNNPNN
NNNNNPN
NNNNNNP
PPNNNNN (the first two are het pieds)
.... etc....
NNNNNNN (all normals)

So how many possibilities there is at least one het pied ? well it's the possibility that none are het pieds (all normals).

Actually, since you have 7 snake, you have 49 total combination (if I am right it's 7^2 = 49).

So the probability of having a het pied in those is 1 - (1/49) = 97.95%

The formula could be : Number of possible desired combination / total number of combinations

Hope this help
-----
love this world, don't hate it.

Hey, sounds like you are using statistics to give false hope The one thing all those numbers don't seem to take into account is a great natural factor: LUCK. A dirty word in the math field, I know...
-----
3.4 ball pythons
1.1 kingsnakes
0.1 crazy cat
?!.?! ASFs
1.0 husband

The probability of having at least one het is 1 minus the probability of having all the babies be normals.

The probability of having all normals is 0.5^n, where n = number of babies. If there are two babies, the probability of having all normals is 0.5^2 = 0.25 or 25%. Because there are 4 possibilities -- two normals, the first a het and the second a normal, the first a normal and the second a het, or two hets. So with two babies, there is a 75% probability that there is at least one het.

The probability of having at least one het in 7 babies is 1-(0.5^7), which is 127/128, which is a bit over 99%.

Paul Hollander

I might be wrong...

But with your calculation, what's the probability of having at least 2 het ?
-----
love this world, don't hate it.

I think we can take Paul's formula which above fines the chance of at least one het pied and also use it to find the chance of having at least one pastel het pied.

Each baby from pastel to het pied has a 1/2 chance of being het pied and an independent 1/2 chance of being pastel for a combined 1/4 chance of being a pastel het pied. So each ends up with a 3/4 chance of NOT being both pastel and het pied for a combined chance of (3/4)^5 = 243/1024 = 23.7% chance of NOT getting any pastel het pied if all 5 hatch or a 76.3% chance of getting at least one. So over 3 times as likely to get at least one as none.

And that is about the limit of what I know from one semester of statistics about 20 years ago. Sure there are no guarantees but learning to figure the odds I think would help breeders. I think a lot of people are afraid to try things because the mistakenly think the odds are a lot worse than they really are.

So how hard is it to see the het pied belly in a pastel given that pastels are clear belly anyway? Is it next to impossible in an albino?

yeah, your math is wrong. Paul's is correct.

My brain just exploded! Where were you when I was flunking math? lol I humbly kneel to your brain power.
-----
Snakes
Lizards
Tortoises
Dogs
Cats
Fish
Horses
Teenagers
DH who puts up with it all

they don't even come into play as one has no idea what so ever if any of the snakes are hets. understand you are dealing with something you cannot control.....nature.

the only thing one can be sure of is that the each hatchling has a 50% chance of being a het whether it's a normal or pastel.

the only way to find out is to grow them up and breed them out.

pied markers are not true markers in my opinion. just like Lessers and Butters are the same morph!

Pitoon

What he said except butter and lessers are not the same... Apples and orange can both make juice but it doesn't taste the same.. : )

het pied markers are not true markers even though they come through in visual morphs? even though they have been proven to be markers by hundreds of breedings? I sold possible hets that I produced which had markers and they produced pieds. I produced pastels with markers and they are hets. you throw up statements on every thread posted. this time you are wrong. either you have not done the breeding or you just want to see your text posted. The het pied markers are an extremely valuable tool in saving years on breeding projects. Not all het pieds have the markers but the large majority sure do!

I do have a few royals in my collection that have this so called "marker". Are they het pieds???? Unless they were descendants of a pied breeding somewhere back in their generation, i highly doubt it. I’ve even tried one time breeding two together….results…….no pieds. I’ve even got a Spider sib with a “super marker” but I know she’s no het pied.

………………………and yes i write on here every so often.

Do I type false information????
Do I not know what I’m talking about?
Do you really think I like to see my posts on the forum?

My question is why would you write something like that? If you don’t like me or my posts, that’s fine. Just ignore me and my posts and drive on.

……………………and for everyone else who wants to buy a Butter at a higher price than a Lesser, go ahead and spend the money. You’re just buying an overpriced Lesser.

Pitoon

You make things personal insulting people in your posts. I am just stating facts. I rarely post on here but when I see somebody answer a question with something that is not true, I choose to correct it sometimes.

Yes animals that are not het pieds can have similar markings but they are different. When you breed pied x het or het x het it is invaluable to have the markers to help you increase your odds by a huge proportion on knowing which is a het and which is not. It is acurate nearly all of the time. Ask Pete Kahl who likely has more het pied females than anyone else and I believe he will affirm for you (as friends of mine have had the conversation with him) that the large majority have the markers. If you know what you breed it helps out big time. Looking to produce pieds from animals that you do not have any reason to think are hets just because they have belly markers is pretty silly.

It is a huge marker with pastels since they do not have the marker unless they are het pied. The pied gene even made my het pied pinstripes obvious from normal pins. It exists and is a great help to breeders. You can say what you like but it is a fact and people who work with pieds and hets will back me up on that.

Belly markers have proved invaluable in several genes now. They exist for a reason.

Did I insult anyone? Did you? We’re just writing on a forum from two different continents expressing each others thoughts publicly. People especially on forums always want to make things so personal!?!?!?!?!?!

There’s nothing wrong with wanting to believe in something……..why do you think there’s so many different religions. I have my conclusions on the het pied marker and you have yours. Can we leave it at that?

If you would be so kind as to post the pastels and pins with the het marker I would love to see the “marker” on these morphs. How about even starting a new thread on just “het pied markers”. And no I’m not being sarcastic……I would really like to see it.

Oh on a last note……when you wrote “Belly markers have proved invaluable in several genes now. They exist for a reason” i agree with you 100% however we (or i at least) is debating on the “het pied marker”. Breeding is never, ever ever silly.

Pitoon

"When you breed pied x het or het x het it is invaluable to have the markers to help you increase your odds by a huge proportion on knowing which is a het and which is not."

If you're going to be "correcting" people and be insulting about it, then at least get your facts straight. A pied x het produces pieds and hets, lotta good those markers will do you!

I typed it incorrectly but even with my typo, It does a ton of good. 1) they do not get confused with normals in your collection. I can not even tell you how many people I know have sold hets as normals and normals as hets because they lost track of which was which. 2) the vast majority of buyers for possible het pieds or het pieds feel much better about their purchase when they see the markers regardless of who produced them or what you say. But thanks, nobody can make a simple error at 4am without you catching it and being a jerk about it.

"I typed it incorrectly but even with my typo, It does a ton of good. 1) they do not get confused with normals in your collection. I can not even tell you how many people I know have sold hets as normals and normals as hets because they lost track of which was which. 2) the vast majority of buyers for possible het pieds or het pieds feel much better about their purchase when they see the markers regardless of who produced them or what you say. But thanks, nobody can make a simple error at 4am without you catching it and being a jerk about it."

just read your points again...............this was the main reason why i tried that prticular breeding with my snakes. you just never know, take Markus for instance he got an axanthic pied from a breeding he had no idea about on the background. things happen............that's just how it is.

dude just relax. it's just words and this is a forum on the internet.

i would still like to see them pics!!!

Pitoon

Pitoon

Just because you have produced a few het pieds with markers does not mean that all animals with markers are het for pied. It may be the case that markers show up more often on het pieds, but just because it happens to be the case with you is statistically meaningless. Don't come on here preaching as though it is fact, when it's not. It's simply your experience.

If you think markers is a sure way to make sure which animals are het pieds and which are normals in a collection, I feel sorry for you and would never buy anything from you.

I have a pair of het pieds, they are proven. Guess what? Neither have markers.

Just wanted to point out that the "pied markers" are often found and passed down genetically through normals as much as they are through pieds. I believe that it's just another phenotype that got mixed into the pied line more that it's a tell of the genes that the animal is carrying. If I were to have to pick a possible het pied for a project yeah I'd probably look for one that had that look -- but would I stake my reputation on the probability that a ph pied with markers was a het - nope.
-----
Tosha
JET Pythons
Toshas Blog

Herp Medicine does not equal a bottle of Baytril - Dr. Scott Stahl