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advice on odds

JonathanPG Sep 23, 2009 11:15 PM

ok i have a female pied that bred with a male pied and i also threw in a spider 66% pos. het pied, she laid 8 eggs, what are my odds of my outcome? much info is highly appreciated!

Replies (5)

Doogie Sep 24, 2009 08:45 AM

Well, if the male pied successfully bred her then you would get 100% pied babies.

If the spider possible het pied successfully bred her there are several possible outcomes. If he is het pied you have a 50% chance of pieds and a 50% chance of normals het pied. Just like there is a 50% chance of spiders and a 50% chance of normals. So mixing the two genes the chance of a spider pied would be 25%, pied alone 25%, spider het pied 25% and normal het pied 25%. If he is not het pied you will get a 50% chance of spiders het pied and a 50% chance of normal het pieds.

As for odds if she was successfully bred by both there is no way to figure them well because who knows what eggs get fertilized by which sperm. But all will be het pieds.

Good luck.

Bolitochrome Sep 24, 2009 09:20 AM

Yep, as above, summary:

Pied X Pied = 100% pieds

Pied X Spider het pied =
25% Spider
25% Normal
25% Spider Pied
25% Pied
-----
Lincoln, NE
0.1 Pastel, 1.0 Pastel het Pied, 0.1 Pied, 0.1 Cinn, 1.0 Black Pewter, 1.1 Normals, 1.0 Thayeri, 0.1 Thayeri X Alterna, 0.1 crazy cat, 1.0 husband

morphine Sep 24, 2009 10:20 AM

Spider Pied = Knowing your Spider is 100% Het.

No Pieds, Some Spiders = Very likely your Spider is not Het. Pied.

Any other combination doesn't rule anything out. Even if you had all Pieds you couldn't be sure that some weren't fathered by a Spider Het Pied.

Paul Hollander Sep 24, 2009 06:54 PM

Pied X Pied = 100% pieds

Pied X Spider het pied =
25% Spider
25% Normal
25% Spider Pied
25% Pied

Right. So there is no way to tell which male sired the pied babies. Spider, normal, and spider pied babies had to be sired by the spider male. If there are spider pied babies, then you know that the spider male must be het pied, too. If there are no spider pied babies, then the spider male remains a 66% probability het pied.

Paul Hollander

JonathanPG Sep 24, 2009 11:32 PM

thanks for all your input, i highly appreciate it!

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