One thing people seem to forget is if someone has a fascination with reptiles, they will always have a fascination with reptiles. They will always want to observe them, learn about them, go to shows, photograph them, keep more of them, breed them and share their knowledge about them. Those who jump ship, burn out or are forced out of the hobby will most likely be back at some level. So you have supply at all levels of reptile involvement.
In terms of the boa market, like Manny, I also believe the future is brighter than people think. The “hang over” of the initial boa rush is clearing up and people are building their collections again. There are now plenty of new up and coming breeders to contribute to the boa market that are working on some great existing and future projects. The boa market is now on the verge of multiple projects with new gene combinations coming to fruition. If you are at all like me you will not be able to stay away.
When I got into boas, ball pythons were blowing up. Then the BP market saturated and people jumped to boas. Then the housing market, which coincided with the rise of the boa and ball python markets crashed and everyone was hurting. An important side note is virtually ALL markets around the world crashed at this time, not just boas and BP’s. New gene combinations in ball pythons have been doing well. When the new BP gene combos are in adequate supply I suspect people will jump to the next hot thing again. As I already said there are a lot of new things coming in the boa world.
One very promising thing I have observed is many people have found ways to insulate themselves from market swings and are now keeping boas (morphs and localities), ball pythons and many are even getting into blood pythons. This diversification should do nothing but help the stability of the boa market and help reduce “fire sales” by individuals who didn’t figure out how to support their collection. Boas are not ball pythons and the market does not move at the same pace as the ball python market –patients is a must with boas. Hopefully more people will begin to realize this as many already have. Then maybe they will grow a pair and stand behind their work, applied knowledge, time, money invested, their boas and themselves.
In many areas the economy is stabilizing or improving. The boa ban will be put to rest soon. In 2013 we will have new government that will not be in grid lock the way they are now which will hopefully kick things in the ass a little, creating more disposable income for investors and removing some pressure from breeders to move inventory out of necessity as opposed to investment potential. Now is the time to hold firm on your projects because to a large extent we have seen the worst and things are about to change for the better.
Finally, I have noticed some people have this sense of impending doom that the worst possible scenario will occur, that there is no other option available and that once a market trend is set into motion things will only get worse. People see market prices drop and all of a sudden assume they have just “blown” their investment. For some reason they tend to forget that they just purchased a boa that can live 20 years and produce multiple litters. It might just take longer to recuperate their investment and/or turn a profit. They see litters produced and assume that the buyers will be successful at breeding the babies on their first attempt. They assume that females will not die during pregnancy and that females that were bred too early will produce consecutive litters. That all litters will have 20-30 babies with no slugs. That those litters will have the desired sex ratio and gene expression ratio. They assume that the offspring are not sold overseas. They forget their market base includes all the possible combinations that can be produced with the existing morphs and by selective breeding. These combinations create many, many options and ultimately, a very large and often underestimated market base.
In terms of any market, what goes up must come down and will go up again. Optimism, sticking with my goals and a little bit of luck has proved to be very productive in my life. I am getting pretty tired of all the negativity. I am going to stick with what has always worked for me and expect the best. In my opinion this is a better approach than the alternative……
Steve Ihrig - sdi