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mystic potion probability

magicalmorphs Jun 28, 2011 05:42 PM

What are the percentages of results of a mystic x mojave clutch. The person I bought my mystic from said he got 2 mystic potions out of 25 eggs.
25% normal
25% mojave
25% mystic
25% mystic potion

Is it this simple or is there something else involved?
Thanks Chris Hall

Replies (9)

JYohe Jun 28, 2011 05:44 PM

from 25 eggs you could get just 2......

you could also get 15.....

.odds........like you posted....it's luck of the draw --25% PER EACH egg......

....
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........JY

Bolitochrome Jun 28, 2011 06:12 PM

Those percentages are PER EGG. Your chances of getting a particular morph in a clutch does go up with number of eggs.
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Lincoln, NE
Ball Pythons - 0.1 Pastel, 1.0 Pastel het Pied, 0.1 Pied, 0.1 Cinn, 1.0 Black Pewter, 1.0 Woma (hidden gene?), 0.1 Yellowbelly
2.1 Normals
Kingsnakes - 1.0 L. m. thayeri, 0.1 L. m. thayeri X L. alterna, 1.0 L. g. californiae
Other - 0.1 Whitesided P. catenifer sayi, 1.0 H. nascicus, ?.? Chrysemys picta, 0.1 crazy cat, 1.0 husband

lairofdragons Jun 28, 2011 09:32 PM

Actually the odds are based off a 32 egg count when figuring the law of genetics...so out of 32 eggs you should get( no guarantee ) 8, 8, 8, and 8...but with BP's you are not getting 32 eggs so that's where the odds of 25% come in..some get lucky and hit all super morphs and some can go years before the morph proves out...

Hope this helps

Travis
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LAIR OF DRAGONS

JYohe Jun 30, 2011 03:52 PM

it's a throw of the dice with each egg....you could get all morphs or all males or all normals....etc...

.ask me....last year spider x lesser...first eggs...Lbee,Lbee,Lbee paradox ,Lbee....cool....lesser dead lesser alive and a normal...

this year lesser x different spider....dead egg, dead egg due to the first-(Lesserbee screamer dead), normal, spider, spider,spider,spider....LOL...2 eggs yet...pray......

........think of it as throwing dice twice or even three times per egg....is it male?....is it morph A ? is it morph B? etc...

...
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........JY

muddoc Jun 29, 2011 08:36 AM

So far I have only hit 1 out of 32 eggs. I am hoping that the one clutch I tried it on this year will be a bit better. However, this is probably the last year I try for it.
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Tim and Monica Bailey
Bailey & Bailey Reptiles

chongorojo Jun 29, 2011 09:08 AM

Bah that sucks! Sounds like my first year with spiders! Hopefully you will hit those missing odds else where! Good luck I hope you find your potions this year.
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Brian Hettinger, Owner
Colten Jones, Operations Manager
480 Pythons
480pythons@gmail.com

magicalmorphs Jun 29, 2011 07:12 PM

Tim I was actually refering to you I just had my numbers wrong. I purchased a mystic from you this Feb at the Arlington show. That little guy was only 200g when I got him and he fathered 2 clutches for me this year. He's now over 700g. Thanks for the great snake. Now he's warmed up for my mojo girls this coming season! Hope you're having a great season. Chris Hall

anthony james mc Jun 30, 2011 06:29 PM

Wow Tim I didn't know your odds were off that much on that stuff! I actually did pretty well that first season making Potions, I had like 20 eggs, 21 eggs tops and made 6 Potions and one white Potion that still has me scratching my head how he came about (looks alot like a odd Super Mojave BUT can't be that as his dad is the Sire of my Super Mystic, and Mystic Fire so he's proven and then some to be a Mystic)..

Alot of it is pure luck when it comes to hitting the odds. Sometimes when I get a pile of 7-9 eggs I don't make nearly what I think I should be able to hit on. Other times I get 2 or 3 eggs and hit stuff when I surely doubt anything will line up. You can scratch it out all day long on paper and that often times is NOT what you end up with anyway.

Luck this year hasn't been all that great so must be paybacks for all those het x het clutches that scored big in the past for me. Would think using the visual morph or Supers will double you results , not always the case, don't ask me why/how , just can easily end up that way I guess...

Anthony McCain
McCain Reptiles

georget22 Jun 29, 2011 05:19 PM

Wow after reading some of the previous posts, i feel really fortunate to have hit on 2 out of 5 eggs last season. George

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