Patrick:
Not certain how to repond as I have done about all I can think of
by citing examples and using reasoned analogies.
"OTOH, I'm not sure what evidence you could have of rarity other than infrequent observation--unless you're in a position to find and mark every individual of a population (and who is?) that's as good as it gets."
With respect to your first comments above, there are essentially two ways to assess the status of species: 1) using non-scientific methods and 2) using science-based methods. If you consider the use of #1 as valid, end of discussion. If you believe as I do that accepted scientific methods are best,
then you should reject simple observations as being a valid means of assessing whether or not a species is rare, common, or somewhere inbetween.
When I was in college in the early to mid 1950's, conventional wisdom throughtout the herpetological community was that the Rubber Boa was a 'rare' species. The Southern Rubber Boa was listed as "RARE" in 1971 by the Calif. Dept. of F & G based on few observations and other types of anecdotal input by a number of herpetologists. As it has turned out, they were all wrong in their 'preceptions' that the SRB was rare.
To this day, the myth that the Rubber Boa is rare persists amongst many individuals including biologists with various wildlife agencies in the west where the species occurs. Just this summer, my son Ryan encountered a biologist with the Utah Wildlife agency that mentioned to him that the Rubber Boa was rare in Utah. Also in August, Brian Price of Elko, Nev. found 4 boas near that city. He told me that a Nev. biologist mentioned the species was rare. And in late Aug. we visited a couple near Skamania, Wash. (30 miles east of Portland, Ore.) that had boas come out of their attic. Not knowing what they were, they had a biologist identify the snake for them who also mentioned that the species was rare in Washington.
Concerning your second point, I agree. Species with narrow, specific habitat requirments are far more likely to be impacted by human activites and perhaps become truly rare than species that occur a broad array of habitat types.
I was not certain as to the point you were making in the last part of your post so cannot comment one way or the other. Let me once again urge you to try and obtain a reprint of the following published article:
"Perceptions of Species Abundance, Distribution, and Diversity: Lessons from Four Decades of Sampling on a Government-Managed Reserve' J. Whitfield Gibbons et. al. Environmental Management
Vol. 21. No. 2, pp.259-268
Richard F. Hoyer
P.S. Let me add that simply because studies are conducted in an acceptable scientific manner, that does not guarantee that the results obtained represent reality. My state's wildlife agency commissioned a 2 year herpetofauna study of the Oak-woodland habitat in four counties from south of Portland to just north of Eugene, Oregon. It was conducted by a private environmental consulting firm. The first year (started in May 1997) they used time constrained searches (transects) along with drift fence, pit fall and funnel traps. After the first 1997 season they had a reasonable sample of amphibian but almost no reptiles. They contacted Dr. Robert Mason (Ore.St U. herpetologist) and myself, and both of us recommended they deploy artifical cover objects. They did this at about half of their sites but only had time to monitor them 2 - 3 times during 1998.
When you read their methods section, you find that they conducted the vast majority of their searches and checks for reptiles during mid day and mid summer conditions. Thanks to the A/C, they did increase the number of reptiles but in one day, I could have found 2-3 times their entire sample. They collected one Sharp-tailed Snake (in a funnel trap). During the second year (1998), I had begun my study of the Sharp-tailed Snake and while they found the one specimen in their two year study across four counties, I found 129 in two of those four counties in just one year.
If you grasp the underlying consideration is my analogy of the gopher snake and worms in San Diego County, you may then understand why observations and perceptions can be in gross error. Understanding the biology of species and knowing when, where and how to conduct searches cannot be over emphasized.
RFH