The gold star goes to Jeff "Mr. Smarty Pants" Ronne for his "Option Number 1" reply!
Some additional info...
1. Grandpa (coral albino) was produced here, and with all the other breedings we had done with his parents and relatives without a single anery popping up along the way, it seemed highly unlikely that Grandpa was het-anery.
2. The two other anerys (in addition to Mom) in Grandma’s 2006 litter were small, had kinks, and died shortly after birth – with the combination of size and kinks, I was unable to sex them.
3. The rest of Grandma’s litter contained 20 males and 11 females – clearly the majority of this litter was NOT partho (unless current partho theory is off and you actually can get partho males, but that seems extremely unlikely at this point).
4. There were two other ladder tails in the litter, both females. One was small with large belly and died soon after birth; the other I still have, and I expect her to breed for the first time this coming season – that will be interesting...
MOM’s SISTER
5. The probability of breeding het-anery x het-anery and getting 3 anerys in a litter of 33 is an interesting question, and one that must be phrased carefully because the answer to that exact question – the probability of getting exactly 3 – is about 1.5% (1.5 in 100). However, the proper way to phrase the question from a statistics standpoint is: what is the probability of producing a number of anerys that is at least that far from the most likely result? What the heck does that mean, you ask? The chart below shows the probability distribution for the number of anerys in a litter of 33. The most likely result is 8 (mathematically it is 33/4 = 8.25, but we don’t want to deal in fractional boas...like the average American family with 2.3 kids, and no, that’s NOT 2 male and 3 female kids!
). Our result of 3 anerys is 5 less than the most likely result; 13 would be 5 more than the most likely result. So, to figure out the probability of a result that is at least as unlikely as 3 anerys in 33 babies, we add up the probabilities from 0 to 3, and from 13 to 33 (the green shaded parts of the chart, most of which are very small numbers) – that total is 6.9%. So, the probability of breeding het-anery x het-anery and getting a number of anerys at least as improbable as 3 in a litter of 33 is 6.9 in 100. Not crazy bad odds by any means, but certainly enough to have made me suspicious, especially when coupled with the other info above.
6. The probability of Mom being het-albino, being bred by an albino male, and producing a litter of 20 without a single white baby is less than 1 in a million (the actual calculation is 1/2^20).
Based on all of the above, I conclude it is most likely that:
1. Grandma is het-anery, and Grandpa is not.
2. Mom is partho, and was produced in a litter in which a few siblings may also be partho, but of which most are not partho.
3. Mom is not het-albino.
4. Bred by a coral albino het-anery, Mom’s 2011 litter consisted of anery het snows and double-het snows that were produced sexually.
I still have Mom here and she is doing great. I also still have Grandpa, and I have a shed skin from him ready to go because, ironically Dr. Booth, he also was the “father” of the first of my two likely partho Supermotley litters – I actually have all of the potentially relevant shed skins in association with those litters ready for you and just need sampling kits for the few DOAs I still have in the freezer. Dad is also still here and doing great – I will likely breed him to Mom’s sister (pictured above) this coming season.
There are unfortunately a few puzzle pieces missing. Grandma died a few years ago due to complications from a growth in her throat. The 2011 babies I already sold to a local wholesaler. And now the REALLY embarrassing part of the story
...I was in such a hurry that I never sexed the 2011 babies! I am normally such a stickler for detail and documentation – it is literally the first ever boa litter that I have not sexed! The minute I saw the litter, I was sold that Mom is partho, and having been convinced in my mind I didn’t give it much more thought, life got busy, got in a hurry to make the delivery time... I want to say that in packaging them up for delivery I sexed at least several of them and recall it being a mix of males and females (I certainly would have noticed and kept checking if I were seeing all females), but I wasn’t specifically thinking about the partho thing at the time and didn’t document it at all. It’s even possible that I could be remembering packaging up a different load of boas, though there wouldn’t have been need for sexing during packaging since I did sex everything else I produced this year. Regardless, that further evidence unfortunately goes by the wayside due to a rare lapse in diligence on my part.
Oh, and by the way, the 8 females from the 2006 litter (Mom’s sisters) that we did sell all went to one customer from whom we have not heard of any strange results. I do plan to try to contact him specifically to ask that question, but my sense is that those females likely were non-partho het-albinos. Interesting, though, to think that perhaps back in the olden days, before parthenogenesis in boas was accepted (like only a very few years ago, really!), that some of the stories of people being ripped off buying hets that weren’t could have been a result of such a scenario – one that I myself may have avoided only through good fortune and the accidental wisdom in having kept the weird ones!
So, Dr. Booth, anything useful to do with the boas that I do still have that are associated with this 2011 litter (Grandpa, Mom and Sister)? At the least, we should figure out the sampling kits so I can wrap that up and send you a package with the skins/samples from my two likely partho Supermotley litters. Let’s talk soon!
Thanks to everyone for playing – I hope it was entertaining and informative.
Steve Reiners
www.BoaMorph.com
