Terry wrote:
E. kansensis dates from mid Miocene, which is around 14-15 ma, at least, and dies out around the time that E. vulpina and E. obsoleta are getting started, around 5-6 ma, according to what I've read. This species could definately have been the ancestor of vulpina or obsoleta, but so could have E. buisi, or E. pliocenica. I believe it was, "Out with the old, and in with the new."
My response:
It would be an anachronism for either E. buisi or E. pliocenica to be ancestral to E. vulpina and E. obsoleta. It would be analogous to E. obsoleta being ancestral to E. kansensis. Besides, E. kansensis may well be conspecific with either E. vulpina or E. obsoleta since they are distinguished by differences in their vertebra, and since this character varies as much within L. getulus as it does between different genera of some snakes.
Terry wrote: You probably know about the orogenies of N.A. mtn. ranges. The continent was pretty flat when the colubrid ancestors invaded. The Rocky Mtn. orogeny was partly what caused the great climate changes throughout the Miocene, which led to the great radiation of the Lampropeltini. There's very few early Miocene colubrid fossils and it's very possible that Elaphe was already present as early as 24 ma at the start of the Miocene. The invading species probably weren't E. kansensis or E. buisi.
My response:
The Rocky Mountains were around before the Old World species of Elaphe entered the New World. I agree that this species of Elaphe was around at the start of the Miocene. In fact, I said that it could have been around in the late Oligocene. Because most of the early to mid Tertiary faunal exchanges between Palearctic and Neartic occurred via the Thulean land bridge, I suggested that the ancestor of New World Elaphe also came this way. You disagreed and claimed that it came through the Beringia land bridge. I am glad you finally come around and agree with me that Elaphe could have been around in the early Miocene.
Terry wrote:
The fossil is from mid-Pliocene. That doesn't mean that the species only existed then. It probably died out at that time, and there weren't any other fossils of this old species.
My response:
I would not call Elaphe pliocenica “old.” That is an unsupported assumption. E. vulpina and E. obsoleta are older since both have been found in the late Miocene.
Terry wrote:
Sure, scientists base conclusions on evidence, but if they didn't ever speculate, how would they ever develop theories.
My response:
Of course scientists speculate, but they do so only when there is insufficient data. When there are facts, scientists do not speculate but must base their conclusions on known facts.
Terry wrote:
Ya know, I'll give you credit for coming up with the Thulean land bridge. I'm not going to say there isn't a chance that Elaphe ancestors came that way. I'm still thinking about it as a matter of fact. But I'm sure not going to put all my eggs in one basket and rule out all other possibilities. I think there's a good chance there was an Asian species crossing the Bering land bridge. I would even vote for an Elaphe schrencki or E. dione, if they weren't such young species.
My response:
I base my speculation on the distribution of New World Elaphe and water snakes. I had heard about a Europe-North America land bridge in the past but did not pay much attention to it. I only had vague memory of this land bridge when I started our discussion. There is of course the possibility that another species of Elaphe either came across the Thulean or even Beringia land bridge, and Elaphe flavirufa may well be this species. The other species of North American Elaphe no doubt are closely related, along with their close relatives in Arizona, Pituophis and Bogertophis. The Thulean land bridge is not well known even among scientists but several recent papers should change that. These papers show that some mammals, many plants and many groups of animals (including turtles) migrated through this route.
Terry wrote: I don't know why you insist that E. obsoleta could be the Elaphe ancestor from Eurasia. This is a late Miocene species that is still alive today and well adapted to the modern world. And E. buisi was an older species. I doubt seriously obsoleta could have evolved into that species.
My response:
E. buisi is NOT older. It is early Pliocene Oklahoma in distribution. E. obsoleta is late Miocene and farther north in Nebraska. E. obsoleta is close relative of the older E. kansensis, which is possibly conspecific with E. obsoleta, considering the fact that intraspecific differences in vertebra can be quite extensive within a species.
Terry wrote: Are we to believe Utiger et al. are like god on all the other species they tested and not even close with Senticolis? I understand why you don't like the placement of Senticolis, but according to the molecular data of Utiger et al., Senticolis is closer to the Lampropeltini than E. scalaris is. If I'm going to use their data as evidence of branching order, I have to consider where they put Senticolis. And if Senticolis is a racer, why doesn't it branch closer to the racers, or even Ptyas, then to the Lampropeltini?
My response
Some of their nodes are better supported than others. The node where they place Senticolis has a bootstrap value of 30. That is dismal statistical support and indeed, protein electrophoresis data places Senticolis outside of Elaphe (Old World and New World). So this part of their tree is not only weakly supported by their data, it is contradicted by other people’s molecular data and by morphology (hemipenial structure and intrapulmonary bronchus for example). The systematic position of E. mandarina is supported by earlier findings and by Tong et al. (Acta Zoologica Sininca) so this part of the tree is more robust. Utiger et al. find E. scalaris basal to New World Elaphe. The same finding has been obtained earlier by Lopez and Maxson. If multiple independent studies arrive at the same conclusion, the chance that it is close to scientific truth increases. If there is weak support and multiple independent studies contradicting the placement of Senticolis near the Lampropeltini, then it is probably not a part of the Lampropeltini.
Terry wrote:
Obviously, this is not the last word on Senticolis, and as we've said before, more testing needs to be done. Of course, I have another reason for responding to your Senticolis statements. I don't think we know enough about how the Southwestern U.S. and Mexican species have evolved. That will take some more research.
My response:
I welcome more studies on Senticolis. Both Utiger et al. and Rodriguez-Robles seem to have the preconception that this species is part of the Lampropeltini and they both prefer trees that show such a relationship. An author who is more objective may be able to determine the true affinity of Senticolis. Personally I do not care whether it is a racer or a ratsnake. I just want to find out which of this group it actually belongs. It appears to me that it is almost certainly not a ratsnake (not closely related to any of the 30 odd species of Old or New World Elaphe)
Terry wrote: As long as we're speculating here, how come you didn't include E. schrencki, or for that matter E. dione, as possible ancestors for the Lampropeltini? Actually these species seem to resemble New World Elaphe very closely, and I remember my first look at schrencki and thinking it looked just like Lampropeltis g. getula. I don't think E. scalaris could be the Elaphe ancestor of the Lampropeltini. Since the Thulean land bridge broke up by the early Miocene, the ancestor would have had to have been on Iceland by then, and scalaris is way too young for that.
My response:
Sorry it is not speculation but multiple independent studies which show E. scalaris as the closest relative of New World Elaphe and the lampropeltine genera. You keep insisting that E. scalaris is too young but you have no data to support that claim. E. scalaris comes out both basal and closest to the New World Elaphe in both Utiger et al. and Lopez and Maxson’s independent studies. Lenk et al., which use Lampropeltis as the outgroup(!) for their analysis of European ratsnake relationships, find that E. scalaris is the closest species to Lampropeltis triangulum. Even a weird analysis like Lenk et al.’s, which use a derived species of the Elaphe clade (L. triangulum) as the outgroup, still comes out with E. scalaris closest to Lampropeltis.
Terry wrote:
The Elaphe ancestor could have entered the New World from Iceland in the Miocene, but would have been an archaic Elaphe, not scalaris, or a scalaris ancestor.
My response:
E. scalaris is pretty “archaic.” It is basal not only to New World Elaphe and the lampropeltine genera, it is also basal to a large number of other Elaphe species, if you look at Utiger et al.’s tree more closely.
Terry wrote:
Another possibility is that the archaic Elaphe ancestor was E. kansensis, E. buisi, or E. pliocenica, which may have been a Eurasian species also. I don't know anything about the Eurasian fossils, yet, but it sounds like a future project.
My response:
E. buisi and E. pliocenica, your “pet” fossil species, are simply not old enough to be ancestral to New World Elaphe. As for European fossils, good luck with them. Perhaps you can prove that E. scalaris is a young species but it is not a good idea looking for fossil evidence, because Miocene age E. scalaris just may turn up in your search. Your best bet is molecular data. A young species has very little genetic variation among different populations. An old species has a great deal of intraspecific genetic variation. Elaphe obsoleta has a great deal of intraspecific genetic variation. It is an old species.