predictions?
here's mine:
Bush will win WI, IA NV, CO, WV. Kerry will win PA, OH, MN, OR and NM. That leaves only Florida, a toss up.
Florida has conflicting forces acting on it. The hurricanes are a strike against Bush (research shows people tend to vote against those in office when subjected to bad weather - really!) But Bush got to wander through the state apparently handing out huge amounts of relief - made him look good - even if it was our tax dollars!
The flu vaccine problem. Bush looks bad here. We know that it was a problem building over years and he will get the blame by many. And he insists no cheap drugs will come through Canada - that hurts him among the old too.
Stem cell research. This is a net loss for Bush *in Florida*, maybe not nationally. Most understand the small clump of cells are produced by fertility clinics by the thousands and if there is not research done on them they are frozen or washed down the drain. For Bush to pander to the fundamentalist right on this works against him in Florida where lots of people are facing disease stem cell research could address.
Comments by Pat Robertson hurt Bush. He said God told him there would be bad casualties, Bush disagreed with Pat's God given message, and also displayed his ignorance on the aftermath of the war. Again - Bush loses.
Bush said last week that he plans to privatize social security. This was a clear statement to big money backers. This topic scares the beejeezus out of old people, and people with old parents who depend on social security.
Minorities in Florida who voted in the past have been largely Cubans - big Republican supporters. Not any more. Lots of non-Cubam minorities are now voting in Florida.
Pros for Bush:
His brother is a popular Gov. Jeb helped get Nadar on the ballot to dilute the Dem vote.
Voting in some areas of Florida is hard. Very large areas of Jacksonville, for example have very few polling places.
Military: Only about 30% of enlisted support Kerry when polled. (But how many will vote for Kerry in the hopes that he won't get us involved in more wars once they get into the polling station?)
Young people: 18 - 30 yo's are scared about the draft, but they don't typically vote and other demographics dominate Florida.
A good economy. Florida has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. While much of the rest of the country is slipping toward stag-flation, Florida is doing pretty well.
So what the net? In my opinion Kerry will win Florida by a higher margin then predicted and therefore take the national election. It will be tied up in the courts for a few months by sore loser Republicans.
Something else to think about:
When it becomes apparent Bush is going to lose, can you imagine some wingnut sending envelopes with white powder to Democratic polling stations in order to suppress the Dem vote?
When that happens, who decides what to do about it?
Hint: Who was appointed and by whom to address future voting irregularities after the 2000 Florida debacle?
