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What are albino western hognoses usually priced at???

I'm looking for a reasonable price...does anyone know how much they go for on average?

Thanks.
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Chris Vanderwees

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$1000 is about average. You may be able to find some a little cheaper but Im not even sure how many are available. I dont think many so the price will probably not be any cheaper.

EP
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I have just bought a pair of western hognoses and both are 66% possible het for albino so what are the chances in producing albino babies?

Also what do possible hets usually get priced at? I bought these two for $90 each american funds.

Thanks.
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Chris Vanderwees

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I have just bought a pair of western hognoses and both are 66% possible het for albino so what are the chances in producing albino babies?

I'm no statistician, but the odds of producing an albino from that pairing should work as follows -
You are basically calculating the odds of
1. the first snake being het (0.667) and
2. the second snake being het (0.667) and
3. them producing an albino baby (0.25).

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Chris Harrison

If they are actually 66% chance of het, the odds of producing an albino should be about 44%.

.66 X .66 = .4356 or roughly 44% chance of each offspring being albino. Obviously, with these odds, the more offspring, the higher the chances of getting an albino hatchling.

I'm no math whiz so I actually don't know if this is right but I thought your calculation would be if both of the hognoses are het for albino.

Both of them are 66% possible hets for albino so I thought that because they are not for sure hets...the chances would be less.

I could be wrong.
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Chris Vanderwees

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If they are actually 66% chance of het, the odds of producing an albino should be about 44%.
>>
>>.66 X .66 = .4356 or roughly 44% chance of each offspring being albino. Obviously, with these odds, the more offspring, the higher the chances of getting an albino hatchling.

What you are calculating is the probability of both snakes actually being heterozygous. There is a 44% chance that both snakes are hets, that is true.

So the probability is your 44% multiplied by the chance that two hets will produce an albino (25%) for an overall probability of 11%.

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Chris Harrison

Now thats the kind of information that is lacking in published text these days!

Fantastic Job!

>>I have just bought a pair of western hognoses and both are 66% possible het for albino so what are the chances in producing albino babies? >>

It's a 44% of EVER producing ANY albinos from that pairing (i.e. both tun out to be hets). For now, until after you've bred them (and thus gained more information to predict with) it's an 11% chance for any particular egg from that pairing to hatch an albino.

Ok, I understand now. Numbers are hard.
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Chris Vanderwees

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It's a 44% of EVER producing ANY albinos from that pairing (i.e. both tun out to be hets).

Only if you accept (incorrectly) that two hets have a 100% chance of ever producing albinos. Theoretically, they don't. They only have a 25% chance of ever producing albinos. Of course, when you factor in several clutches over 20 years, your odds improve of ever producing an albino.

However, it is correct to say that there is at least a 56% chance of never producing any albinos from this clutch.

This reminds me of the argument on the BP forum a few years ago about whether it improved your odds of getting hets if you bought two animals from the same 66% possible clutch. It doesn't, but some people really believe in their hearts that it does, and didn't want to be convinced otherwise.
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Chris Harrison

>>It's a 44% of EVER producing ANY albinos from that pairing (i.e. both turn out to be hets).>>

>>Only if you accept (incorrectly) that two hets have a 100% chance of ever producing albinos. >>

Yes, that is the assumption I used for the calculation. I still think it is a valid one for the situation where a "large number" of eggs are produced from the same pairing. The likelihood of a pair of definite hets ever producing even one albino approaches 100% the higher the number of eggs gets. But you're right, it never becomes a certainty. I believe it exceeds 99% probablility for over a dozen eggs. For me that's good enough for all practical considerations.

I am certainly no expert on statistics and don't claim to understand the laws of convergence or large number theory, but I guess we have shown that the probability starts at 11% for the first egg and approaches 44% (100% x 66% x 66%) as the sample size increases.

Of course, if you hatch an albino, your probabilities change as you are no longer dealing with a conditional probability (prob of both being hets).

Something about this still bugs me from a probabilistic standpoint. The probability of either one NOT being a het is 0.33. So therefore, isn't the probability of not having two hets equal to the probability of one not being het or the other not being het? So the odds of having either snake be a non-het should be 66%.

Therefore 2/3 of the time, you have 0% chance of producing an albino. Then for the other 1/3 of the time, you still only have a 1/4 chance of getting an albino baby from given egg, giving 1/12 probability of having an albino baby? Now I am really confusing myself!

I need to go back and reread my conditional probabilities!
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Chris Harrison

Trying to factor in the 66% is a waste of time I would think.

They are either a het or not a het. The 66% chance shouldn't account for the probability percentage of the offspring.

If one or both are not het then your chance of producing an albino from them is 0%.

If they are both Het than you have a 25% chance.
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