This is a good question that nobody really knows the answer to or nobody dares to find out. A couple of other breeders and I were talking about this very subject a couple of days ago.
We where talking about the lowest temps we ever had and the animals survive. I personaly have read temperatures around 56 degrees in 1 of my Nile ponds and 57 degrees in my Siamese pond when the well pump quit for a night last winter. It was quickly fixed and the temps brought back up and all are doing fine now but I was sweating it all summer.
Another breeder told me his Cuban pond got to 56 degrees and he thought they where dead. When he went to grab one out of the water it almost got him and they are fine now also.
I am D@#N sure not saying these temps are okay just that with my experiance I have found them to be able to survive in water that is in the mid to high 50's. Remember also that these were adult animals nothing under 6 foot so them being adults they might be able to stand the cooler water better than small ones.
I do know gator breeders who don't heat there water at all and they live north of me so I would say the gators are the most tolerent of the cooler water. In my experiance..
The bottom line being that I don't think anyone knows for sure that if the water gets below X degrees than all will die because nobody wants to find out what X is.
In my ponds I run the well in the winter and they seem to stay around 68 degrees, 65 degrees when it is in the 30's and I have no problems. If the water goes below 65 there is a problem and I scramble to get it back up as I personally don't feel confortable if the water gets below 65. I have way to much invested to risk loosing any.
If anyone else has some low temp stories why don't you share??
Hope this helped...