Reptile & Amphibian Forums

I also think that with the large influx of people to the Ball Pyhon area (the last 2 years have been HUGE numerically), snakes like pastels will be coming down, dramatically, in price over the next couple of years.

The way I see it the average B.P. collector can't afford a pair of clowns or Pieds to breed but they can, and have been, buying male pastels for $600 to $700 bucks a pop. This coupled with the fact that they are co-dom. and you only need one leads me to think the market will be top-heavy in the next couple of years with this morph. I think that anyone that pays $1500.00 for a male pastel right now is crazy...wait a year or two and they are going to be $200.00. I am not going to buy anymore that have a price point above $600.00 thats for sure.

And I am not saying this when it comes to a terrific specimen or if you are breeding supers..so dont mistake me.

I don't think a pastel will be $200 in a year or two not with all the designer morphs being produced with pastels.

You get what you pay for. I have been told you should not expect to produce the best babies from an average male, yet if you have an above average male Pastel you should produce above average babies. I understand it is true many people did what you said and bought Pastels because they could not afford more expensive morphs. You still have to factor not everyone has success breeding these snakes and the new Pastel Combo morphs should help to keep the price from bottoming out. If you offered me a dull Pastel for 800 and a screamer for 1300 I personally would take the screamer. If the price dropped within a few years I would of course be a bit annoyed but the bottom line is if you were happy with a snake for the price you were willing to pay for it....stay happy. There are few investments on the face of earth that do not depreciate...roll a new car off the lot and it drops in price practically immediately. Picking morphs to invest in is not an easy thing for me to decide...I am on a low budget. But I will not settle for less, the quality of the animals I buy will reflect on the prices I hope to get for my offspring in the future. When the best of the best Pastel males are only a few hundred bucks....well then we will all most likely be buying other co doms we can't afford now that have also become more affordable. Tom Stevens

I think MALE pastel prices will drop to $500 or below, heck their already at $700 and below. I think $200 is a year or 2 away. Hard to imagine wasting a female clown or pinstripe on a pastel male, now the other way around is a differnet story. Female pastels will remain higher in price. Tom if take an average pastel male and breed it to nice light colored normal females you will get some smoking pastels, its just selective breeding. I'm sure if you bred an awesome male pastel to dark ugly mormal females you'd get some average pastel hatchlings. JMHO, Ron
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The Crawl Space

Well I guess I better get a killer male and a few awesome normals then. That would be a good game plan, but I apprecaite you pointing out the importance of having nice normal females. There's more than one way to look at things and sometimes people including myself miss another option staring me in the face.
Tom Stevens

N/P

n/p

I have loved working with colubrids and will continue to do so but I have been interested in these Pythons for a long while and finally I am getting involved. There's always a lot of discussion about market price on here....and since there seems to be so many options for people with different budgets I do not understand the grim outlook from many who post on here. This market seems to have a lot too offer and these morphs are off the charts in beauty. I look forward to my first project getting off the ground. 2.2 het Albinos from my good friend Matt Jablonski. I am happy to have these and hope to get some other projects going in the future. Tom Stevens

I also was big into Pits until recently. I was the guy that was selling the babies from the 8 foot Red Bulls, Scott Crumbly line. I know most of the guys on the Pit forum. So if you ever need a reference on me you can ask them, lol. I sold all my pits after they laid their clutches and then sold the clutches when they hatched. I will miss the pits but wanted to concentrate more on balls and hognose snakes. The only reason I know about the ugly pastel x preety normal is because I did it, lol. I also went the other way and regretted it. But thats how we learn. Welcome to addicting world of Balls. Ron
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The Crawl Space

Thanks Ron, you know I love my snakes but what I am first and for most is a morph fanatic. I am going to keep most of what I have had for the past 7 years but I may part with a few projects mainly because a few of my snakes[mainly Mexican Pines] are not thriving in my snake room with the rest of everything else. Seeing how much I am into morphs these Pythons were the obvious choice for me. My wife is an Ultra Sound tech to boot! Maybe I will be measuring follicles with her assistance here at home LOL. Best of luck with your projects Tom Stevens

Tom,
I've been dying to buy an Ultra Sound machine but I think it will have to wait until next year. My Mexican Pines were the first to go also. Last year the Gophers and other Pines went and this year finally the Bulls Good luck with everything. Balls are a great choice for a morph guy. Ron
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The Crawl Space

Given I am a newbie. Only 2 years in the business and just getting started on my projects. I don't know if the change will be that drastic. if the dealers hold to their guns and don't try to make the quick buck you won't see a drastic (1 year $500) drop in an animal. Its eventually going to drop. That is just basic business. But controlling the drop is the key. Just my opinion.

-Bill

Plus I have a pastel project going on and am a bit bias.

I am not going to buy anymore that have a price point above $600.00 thats for sure.

Why would you buy more than one male to begin with anyways??

When you take into consideration the length of time it takes to get MOST females up to breeding size, the low numbers of offspring per clutch and the fact that your females will just NOT breed every year no matter how much you beg. I seriously doubt that you will EVER see any VISUAL morph as low as $200.00 (unless someone panics and has a fire sale of course, but that would be the exception rather then the rule)

Quite frankly, If it weren't for the easy availability of cheap imports, I seriously doubt that you would see normals for less then $200.00 But then again if it weren't for the easy availability of cheap imports, ball pythons wouldn't be as popular as they are either.

Mark

>>I also think that with the large influx of people to the Ball Pyhon area (the last 2 years have been HUGE numerically), snakes like pastels will be coming down, dramatically, in price over the next couple of years.
>>
>>The way I see it the average B.P. collector can't afford a pair of clowns or Pieds to breed but they can, and have been, buying male pastels for $600 to $700 bucks a pop. This coupled with the fact that they are co-dom. and you only need one leads me to think the market will be top-heavy in the next couple of years with this morph. I think that anyone that pays $1500.00 for a male pastel right now is crazy...wait a year or two and they are going to be $200.00. I am not going to buy anymore that have a price point above $600.00 thats for sure.
>>
>>And I am not saying this when it comes to a terrific specimen or if you are breeding supers..so dont mistake me.

I know this sounds bad but are you always this negative ? Pastels are comming down in price,female balls are priced too high ! Terry

zefdin made this statement in the origional post:

"I think that anyone that pays $1500.00 for a male pastel right now is crazy...wait a year or two and they are going to be $200.00"

I used to think alot like that with regard to my tv. All these new plasma televisions have came out and more and more they have completely flooded the market, so assuming that sometime it will (in your words) crash in a couple of years, I have elected to hang on to my Black and White Curtis Mathis television until the plasma comes down to 200 bucks as well. Problem with that is, I am running out of hangers and alluminum foil at an attempt to increase my channel selection and reception
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When plasmas first came out they were in the thousands, now you can pick them up for the hundreds. If anything, it helped illustrate the original posters claims.

Now, where the market price bottoms out is up for debate, and I suspect, we will know for sure in a few years.
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Jay A. Martin
Jay Martin Reptiles

"If anything, it helped illustrate the original posters claims"

Certainly Jay you read way more into the post than was meant. It in no way helped solidify his claim and if you can in fact get plasma's for hundreds, send me a link as they are still thousands. I put up that analogy to show how ridiculous the thread starter's claims were from pastels bottoming out to overpriced females. I just assumed that most would get a laugh either from the black and white curtis mathis (which is no longer made and hasn't been for decades) or the alluminum foil and hangers. And if you still couldn't get it after those two, I even put up a smiley face.

Since we are being serious, it is supply and demand, the foundation of business and simple math. The more that is produced and the more producers there are, the lower the cost of the item being purchased. So is it realistic to assume that people will sell pastels at 200 bucks, absolutely. You may not, but the new guy in this business that cannot compete with a bigger breeders prices will definately drop the price. Not only to get it sold, but he won't have the inverntory to just sit and wait. Then it is going to come down to quality and how nice an animal you want. From the Blondes to Lemons, to Super Blushers and so on. You have already seen this happen anyway. Spiders 3 years ago were 25K, what are they at now???? 3K, so it is safe to assume that supply and demand applies now??? What about Mojaves?? You can get one at 5K on either sex, remember what it was 2 years ago?? Again 25K. It wont happen to everything, and the more you produce personally only gurantees the inevitable. Inevitable in no way means crashing just another definition for the terms supply and demand.

As I said my reply was meant for some small form of comical relief and in no way meant to be serious.

Jeff
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about the "rabbit" ears. My mistake.
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Jay A. Martin
Jay Martin Reptiles

LOL, indeed, that part was serious
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It was a good analogy in the fact that although the price of plasma tv's will stabilize, they will still be expensive due to their manufacturing process and demand. My 19" still works!

I`ve been reading posts just like this for three years now and the prices haven`t dropped much.Supply and demand: you`re right people can`t afford the pricier morphs, therefore ALOT of people are STILL buying Pastels.

id love to know where you got pastels three years ago for 600 dollars...............the price HAS dropped MORE percentage wise then any otgher three year time frame in their history........01' pastels bought in 02 were still over 2000 for MALES and 3500 for females onaverage...........with lemons being 4000-6000...........what percentage of that is 600 dollars????????????

This is one topic that annoys me more everytime I see someone starting a thread about it.

A few years back it was threads like this that made me think twice about some of my investments. After a while I actually took the time to really think about the state of the game and came to a few conclusions about a few of the "market" topics that always seem to be misconstrued:

1. The "big" breeders do charge more for the same morph than the "little" guy. BUT this is a good thing. By keeping their prices up to a level they feel their morphs are valued at will allow the smaller breeders to either ask the same price (most don't) or to bring their prices up to just below that of the big breeders without being questioned.

2. The fact that new morphs (and combos) cost so much initially is a good thing. It gives the morph some financial "padding" allowing early investors to recoup their investment even though the price will be at a decline from day one (with the occaisional bump various reasons). Subsequent investors can jump on the bandwagon a little bit later and also...still make money. Not as much but the potential is there.

Look at it like this: What would have happened if Ralph had priced Platinums at $200 each? (Forget supply and demand increasing the price for just a minute) Everyone who invested in them would have had a much harder time making their money back. Year two and three would have seen the morph drop to $175-$150, the following year it would be $100...where I live that is Petstore pricing. And once a morph starts low it is hard to justify raising the price....at least not without people questioning the hell out of it.

Don't believe me? Look at Mojave's they have been on a yo-yo path since day one. And most (or at least some) of you will remember that after they were found to produce a "white snake" the price sky rocketed to about $50,000. Even after being able to produce one of the most coveted morphs in this trade the price increase was questioned and people were not happy (unless they owned one). Eventually, the market takes care of itself and the prices have been leveling off at a (fairly) normal pace.

3. These morphs will NEVER be at petstore prices..at least not for a few DECADES. Ball python clutches are small, the females take a long time to reach sexual maturity and the demand is way too high for the price to drop that low for a very long time.

If tomorrow everyone of us got together and decided to drop the price on Pastels to $200 a piece (this could be any morph...I'm just picking Pastels because they seem to be the forsaken morph this season)...if we all dropped that price...we would see those people who simply cannot justify or afford a $500-$1000 snake come out of the woodwork. The DEMAND would greatly EXCEED the SUPPLY...come on people this is basic economics here. The price would have to go back up to keep the market stable. And the price would increase slow enough to where supply and demand reach equalibrium.

For every snake that costs $10,000 you have 100 able customers.
For every snake that costs $5000 you have 1000 able customers.
For every snake that costs $1000 you have 10,000 able customers.
For every snake that costs $100 you have 100,000 able customers.

(just a little guide line to help visualize the concept...the numbers are not completely accurate but they do convey the point)

4. At the beginning of every (selling) season (roughly April) morphs are generally cheaper than they will be at the end of that same season. This is caused by a couple of factors.

1. The snakes are younger. As they age the price (and value) will increase.
2. There are more for sale (supply) and many people are competing to sell off their stock. This drives the price down.

As the season goes on, less people are selling any particular morph at any given time. This allows the market to "breathe" and for currently undervalued morphs to go back to what should be their true market value. Holding back your stock for a few months is not a bad idea (unless you actually pay attention to the "chicken littles" of this market). Hold backs will not need to compete with the seasonal market flood that occurs at the beginning of the hatching season and will also see an increase in value due to their age and larger size.

5. Often, it seems, the same people who start rumors about the "market crashing" are the same people who are undervaluing their own animals. By selling an animal at 25-40% below the market value they are, in fact, causing the same "crash" they are worried about. They cause others to follow suit and soon the price is reduced to the point that any noticable increase in market price is shunned.

I have been watching the market price. Perhaps, closer than most. And I can tell you this: the average market price for most morphs has fallen very little over the course of the season.

I will continue to watch the market. I don't remember who it was that mentioned we should have a "Ball Street Journal" a couple of weeks ago...but I do have a Morph Market Price list on my site and will update it monthly. I may even change the name to the Ball Street Journal...I really like that.
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Current Morph Market Prices

Economics you may be good at, but ball prices you are not. You said lets forget about supply and demand, clearly you would have to with the numbers you have provided all to see.

Every business man loves a buyer like you. Your morph pricing list is a bit out of whack and from a sellers standpoint, fantastic. 2% command or broker a great deal, 48% just want a little better than list, and 50% pay what is asked per a reflection on your pricing list. Is your pricing list based on percentages of all available animals, or just from actual listing prices with top sellers? Although larger breeders command a great price, do you actually believe everyone is paying retail?

I tell you what, the very next time you buy anything over the lower end morphs, let me broker the deal. A broker could make a fortune off of you.

I read that post twice and still can't figure out the jest of your comments. You seem to believe that prices will go no where, yet the Blonde pastel, Spider, and Mojave are evident of that. Even armed with that infomation, you look it in the eye and say it isn't so.

Clearly, I do not agree that the ball market will crash, as it is not going anywhere for quite some time or ever for that matter. On the other hand you say at some point through the season, it balances out. Where do all of those baby balls go? You figure enough die off to allow the market to fluctuate properly? You have got to be kidding me.

I will tell you this, put your money where your mouth is. In front of all that read this, I bet you $100 bucks payable in full through paypal, credit card, personal check, or money order, that exactly one year from today I will find a pastel (which started this) closer to $200 bucks than closer to 1k, since you believe prices even out. I am NOT saying an awesome bell, blonde, or lemon line, just a standard pastel. I am also NOT saying that pastels will sell for $200, realistically closer to 4 or 500 next season. Which puts you 500 away and 200 away for me from purchase price.

I do not wish to go back and forth on this, and you can amaze and mislead anyone you wish with that inflamed price list, but as I said before, call me on your next purchase I would love to have your business. Either that, or accept my bet.

Jeff
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Whoa...I guess I did not make myself clear enough in either the post or on my site as to what the numbers represent or how they are figured.

I apologize for any confusion I may have caused.

The numbers posted are averages of the current month's posted (or asking) prices gathered from many breeders.

The prices used were the prices a buyer would see either advertised on a website or classified ad or posted in a breeder's pricelist. Of course, many people are willing to accept offers and will drop the final sale price for a variety of reasons but the posted price remains the same. Click over to the classifieds right now and you'll see plenty of animals that are "over priced" but call almost any of the people listing those ads and most likely they will bring their price down for a "serious buyer".

I post and figure these averages to help people get a rough estimate of how much the asking price could be on any particular morph and to help alleviate some of the "sky is falling (market is crashing)" paranoia. Hopefully, by comparing the current months prices against previous prices a person can see that the asking price for any particular morph is not falling as fast as some of the "fire sales" in the ads would have a person believe.

When I figure the numbers I give equal weight to all breeders. Meaning if Breeder X has 100 Purple balls that he is selling for $2000 each and Breeder B has 10 Purple balls for $1500 each, I do not take into consideration every single ball python. I merely take note that one guy is asking $2000 and another is asking $1500. The resulting average asking price is $1750. This way everyone who is breeding and posting prices or sending me pricelists has some say as to what the morph is offered for.

The bigger breeders (who traditionally do have higher asking prices) help keep the prices up while the smaller breeders (who generally ask for less due to their "status" and general lack of public recognition) help bring the prices down. Generally, there is a balance between the two and the average that I post usually falls somewhere in between the two extremes.

I am by no means saying that the prices will never drop. I apologize if it appeared that I implied this. I fully recognize the fact that the morph prices will drop. But, I cannot realistically see people posting their asking prices at $200 for a pastel (or any morph) by next year. If they end up selling for that much is another thing entirely. But, if a person is asking only $200 for a morph he will run into two problems right from the gate:

1. He won't be taken seriously. Many people have been ripped off in this hobby/trade and still stick by the adage: If it looks too good to be true...it probably is.

2. He will have left himself no room to negotiate. If a breeder lists an animal for $1000 (knowing that he will accept offers of $600) he has left himself some breathing room. If, on the other hand, a seller posts the lowest price he will accept he will have no way to negotiate will a potential buyer. It will be a "take it or leave it" situation...no seller wants to have his back to the wall.

So, yes, many of us could buy the morphs listed on my market price list at less than what is shown and many breeders will have posted prices both higher and lower than those I've provided. But, the numbers are only meant to serve as an average price that is being asked for a morph during any particular month. The list makes no speculation as to what future averages will be or what the final sale price should be.

Now, I know some of you are wondering how many breeders and ads are taken into consideration when these numbers are figured. I have a list of links for nearly every breeder that has a website (big and small) and search regularly for new ones. I also have a very extensive list of online classifieds/for sale pages that is also updated about once a month (I spend a lot of time on this). I do not figure any breeders asking prices more than once when determining the final average. If a breeder has both classified ads and a website with posted prices I take into consideration the most recent of the two. If a particular breeder has morphs which are graded I average the price and use the average as their asking price (example: posted asking price is $1000-$2000 for morph X...the average is $1500 which is the price I use).

After all of the numbers are gathered from all of my sources I add up the asking prices and divide them by the number of prices I gathered. The final result is the average asking price for that month. A buyer can expect to see that morph advertised for roughly that amount. And a breeder who may wonder exactly how much to ask for their morphs without being laughed at or questioned can use this price as a guide when posting their prices. What the animals actually sell for is another matter entirely.

I hope I cleared up some of the confusion. Jeff, I did get your email and it was appreciated. I know you weren't trying to start a debate and I'm not in that mindset either. I do see your point, but I want you (and everyone else that may be reading this) to know that while my posted prices may seem inflated I by no means mean that better deals cannot be found. And I do gather quite a few prices before figuring the numbers so the average I come up with is a fairly safe average. (Last month I had 13 pages of prices to sort through...3 of them were for pastels with yellow bellies and mojaves coming up next).
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Current Morph Market Prices

ALL THIS IS SOOOOOOO OLD.................everyone who wanted a million dollar pastel HAS ONE.............everyone who wanted a 100k pastel HAS ONE.................right on down to the guy who buys for 600 and sells for 200..... WILL HE LOSE MONEY ...............not if he has more then one clutch and still has his breeder male.............(yeah i knw a milion dollar and 100k are a bit over doing it).............GET OVER IT...........nobody is losing out when they DO and WILL go for 200.........all the 5k buyers and anyone ahead or behind thm are now mixing and matching and moving on and probably dont sell any other pastels other then those produced along side the combos..............just like normals used to be sold as siblings to pastels.................now pastels are sold as siblings to the combos and thats the ONLY reason the big guys have them............from time of purchase to time of your first sale the percentage change is no differant from the second generation to today...........stop whining and deal with it...........this was not meant in whole to the post it replied to but to the whole "market crashing" and the defenders or bashers who fight about it.................get over it

You guys are crazy. I'm not selling my pastels for less than 1000.oo for males and 2000.00 for females. Most of the people selling pastels for low prices need the money. I'll wait. eventually I'll sell them when they get 300, 400 ,or 500 grams for the price above. Well see.

Scott

post wasnt started talking about 300,400,OR 500 gram pastels its about BABIES..............now why would they get that big if they were worth the prices you quoted from the get go.........if your holding out to get what you paid for your adult breeder for EACH baby he or she EVER produces you will have a nice big pastel collection in no time.................but then agian they WILL be worth as much as him someday ...........but once again they were reffering to babies

this is the same old stuff argued about on here everyday...............NO morph co-doms especially will hold their prices from the time you bought them until you produce and supply them unless you bought in the first offered or soon after clutches............yeah yeah supply and demand.......no college here so i cant give you any formulas as to why but there are only so many people willing to spend 25k on a snake......they do they breed it and its now 15k three eyars later............from there it hits the price range of others who gobble them up and breed them to their potential............now 10k beginning of next season dropping rapidly..............three years from that yes you know it 2500 tops.......look at as mentioned the spiders,mojaves AND the pastels.........pins will be the same in three years........no dont start with the bashing they wont be 2500 but they WONT be15-20 either which means 10-12k CASH could bring one home TODAY...........posted prices are an attempt at holding market numbers and MEAN nothing until that check is written..............pay for an animal what you can afford to pay and do with it what you choose but remember his or her babies WILL not go for what he or she did........PERIOD

oh and to the original post YES i do beleive you will see 200 dollar pastels soon enough..................when i dont know but you WILL........is the guy who bought for 1000 and sold babies at 750 any differant then the guy who buys at 750 and sells for 400-500 whos buyers then sell theirs for 250.........???????????the people willing to spend the original pastel prices already have and are now into crosses....all the way down to ALL those willing to spend 1000 have done so.........right on down............i will still pay top dollar for some awesome female pastel but many go my numbers alone and the 600 dollar buyers can still clean up selling for half that ........and it will continue...........start crossing them and stay ahead of the game ...............no brainer