Reptile & Amphibian Forums

We recently sold off most of our clown project because we needed the money. We kept the biggest het clown female but hadn't figured she would be ready to go until next year (we also kept a smaller possible het female) - our plan was to pick up a het male next year for the bigger girl and then prove the littler one the following year with the male.

Anyway - the big girl now looks like she might be ready to go this year. My plan was to put her with my pastel male and see if I can start a pastel clown project or possibly my albino and pray to the goods for double hets then breed sibling offspring .

I am assuming her first year and she'll be around 1300 or so when bred if she goes she'll have a small clutch. So figuring 4 eggs - what are the chances that one of them will be a pastel het clown male (that I could breed back to her the following year)?

I'm wondering if it's worth tieing her up for another year or if I should put her with the albino and then breed the siblings and let her have a clown male next year - or just give her another year to grow and put her with the clown. I'm having a hell of a time figuring these odds.

BTW - when I say next year I'm refering to the next year she breeds as I'm aware she may not breed back to back years.

Thoughts? suggestions?

Thanks
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Tosha

"Nihil facimus sed id bene facimus"

7.33.0 Ball Python (Harry and Fluffy and gang)
1.0.0 Angolan Python (Anakin Skywalker)
0.0.1 Green Tree Python (Verdi - yeah I know but my kids love the book)
0.2.0 Feline (Pippen and Pandora)
0.0.1 Desert Tortoise (Pope John Paul aka JP )
2.2.1 Fish (1,2,3,4)
0.0.2 frogs rescued from pool skimmer

What if I sell some of the offspring - how much would a pastel possible het clown go for? or a possible double het albino clown?
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Tosha

"Nihil facimus sed id bene facimus"

7.33.0 Ball Python (Harry and Fluffy and gang)
1.0.0 Angolan Python (Anakin Skywalker)
0.0.1 Green Tree Python (Verdi - yeah I know but my kids love the book)
0.2.0 Feline (Pippen and Pandora)
0.0.1 Desert Tortoise (Pope John Paul aka JP )
2.2.1 Fish (1,2,3,4)
0.0.2 frogs rescued from pool skimmer

Tosha,
I would expect approximatley 1/2 the clutch to be pastel. The whole clutch would be 50% possible het clown. So the odds of one of the pastels being het clown would be 50% in my opinion. Personally I think 1200 grams is to small. I always wait until they reach 1500 grams for their first breeding. But whatever you decide I wish you the best of luck. Ron
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The Crawl Space

The above poster is correct. The pastels would each be 50% het clown. Since only half the litter should be pastels, this would make the odds of getting a pastel het clown 25%. So a clutch of 4 should contain the following: (1) pastel het clown, (1) pastel, (1) normal het clown, and (1) normal.

Matt

I have to agree with Ron. She needs a little more size and weight on her before she breeds.

Greg Power
B.0.A Inc

Theoretically...
50% will be pastels
50% will be hets
50% will be males
(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)=1/8=12.5%

So in a clutch of 4:
Any Pastels have a 25% chance of being het clown and a male.
Any Male pastels have a 50% chance of being het clown.
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0.1 Leopard gecko's
0.0.1 Ball Python's
0.1 blood python's
0.1.1 Crested Geckos

Tosha- you would have a 25% chance of getting the following when breeding a Het Clown to a Pastel:

25% normal
25% Het Clown Pastel
25% Het Clown non-Pastel
25% non-Clown Pastel

Factoring in a sex probability of 50% for either sex, you're down to a 12.5% chance combining the two morphs to get any given sex/morph combo.

12.5% normal male
12.5% Het Clown Pastel male
12.5% Het Clown non-Pastel male
12.5% non-Clown Pastel male
12.5% normal female
12.5% Het Clown Pastel female
12.5% Het Clown non-Pastel female
12.5% non-Clown Pastel female

That ASSUMES that there are no other underlying factors regarding color/patter morph inheritance and sex gamete inheritance.
As always, probabilities are never a guarantee, just a statistical prediction based on a large number of outcomes averaged out. Well, actually previous outcome has nothing to do with future outcomes, but I won't get into probability theory.. I can barely keep my eyes open at work anyway.

Ah, hets... it's a crapshoot at best, fun, fun, fun!

-Jason

Thanks - Thats what I was looking for!

Maybe I'll just put her on the back burner till next season and then put her with a het male. Or maybe I'll go to Vegas and see how my luck is running.

Thanks again!
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Tosha

"Nihil facimus sed id bene facimus"

7.33.0 Ball Python (Harry and Fluffy and gang)
1.0.0 Angolan Python (Anakin Skywalker)
0.0.1 Green Tree Python (Verdi - yeah I know but my kids love the book)
0.2.0 Feline (Pippen and Pandora)
0.0.1 Desert Tortoise (Pope John Paul aka JP )
2.2.1 Fish (1,2,3,4)
0.0.2 frogs rescued from pool skimmer

Chance of Pastel - .50;
Chance of Het Clown - .50;
Chance of male - .50;

Multiply them all together, and you have a 1 in 8 chance of pastel het clown male (but you won't know which one it is). If it was my animal, and I was commited to the project, I'd hold out for a het clown or clown male, or if I hit the lottery, a pastel het clown.
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Al Zulich
Harford Reptile
www.pythons.com

Just start saving $175 a week.In a year you will have your Clown male...

I would holdout for a het male too...

Of course you could always breed her to a pastel and hope to hit on double-hets that way.What do pastels possible het clown go for now? (Bet it's higher than most will pay,but worth it.)
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Charles Glaspie

Tanstaafl:
"There ain't no such thing as a free lunch".
An acronym created by my favorite author Robert A. Heinlein.

I always ask myslef what would RDR do??

LOL
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Tosha

"Nihil facimus sed id bene facimus"

7.33.0 Ball Python (Harry and Fluffy and gang)
1.0.0 Angolan Python (Anakin Skywalker)
0.0.1 Green Tree Python (Verdi - yeah I know but my kids love the book)
0.2.0 Feline (Pippen and Pandora)
0.0.1 Desert Tortoise (Pope John Paul aka JP )
2.2.1 Fish (1,2,3,4)
0.0.2 frogs rescued from pool skimmer

yeah,no doubt.

In Ralph we trust.

...wait a minute...thats startin to sound like some sort of cult.
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Charles Glaspie

Tanstaafl:
"There ain't no such thing as a free lunch".
An acronym created by my favorite author Robert A. Heinlein.

The smart thing would probably be to pick up a het clown male with a little size on him (I might know where you could find a good deal on one). That way you would have a shot at 1/4 clutch of clowns. Alternatively you could loan her out to a clown male but you would need to get half the clutch to get the same shot at 1/4 clutch of clowns.

The gambler in me would try the pastel breeding and hope that I got a male pastel with a weird head pattern or extra bright to _MAYBE_ shift the odds of picking a clown het. The problem there is then you would risk not producing clowns her next clutch either if the pastel son turned out not to be het clown. Maybe best to hope for female pastels to raise up and maybe some day produce clown super pastels with them.