Reptile & Amphibian Forums

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A pair of het pieds should theoretically produce one pied in a clutch of four - sometimes the odds are good - you end up with more - sometimes they aren't so good and you have to try again next season.
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Tosha

"Nihil facimus sed id bene facimus"

7.33.0 Ball Python (Harry and Fluffy and gang)
1.0.0 Angolan Python (Anakin Skywalker)
0.0.1 Green Tree Python (Verdi - yeah I know but my kids love the book)
0.2.0 Feline (Pippen and Pandora)
0.0.1 Desert Tortoise (Pope John Paul aka JP )
2.2.1 Fish (1,2,3,4)
0.0.2 frogs rescued from pool skimmer

If you had a true het pair, then each individual egg would have a 25% chance of being a pied.

The normal looking offspring would be considered to be 66% hets, because each normal offspring would have had a 2/3 chance of picking up a copy of the pied gene.

Check out my genetics page linked below:
Joe Pociask Pythons....Genetics

What not exactly? Yes each egg has a 25% chance of being pied which in a clutch of 4 would theoretically mean one will be a pied - sometime you get more sometimes you get less. Exactly what I said.

A much easier to understand link:

MJ Genetics

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Tosha

"Nihil facimus sed id bene facimus"

7.33.0 Ball Python (Harry and Fluffy and gang)
1.0.0 Angolan Python (Anakin Skywalker)
0.0.1 Green Tree Python (Verdi - yeah I know but my kids love the book)
0.2.0 Feline (Pippen and Pandora)
0.0.1 Desert Tortoise (Pope John Paul aka JP )
2.2.1 Fish (1,2,3,4)
0.0.2 frogs rescued from pool skimmer

No actually, theoretically it does not mean that if you have 4 babies one will be a pied. Probability and odds (yes, two different but related terms) are so often misapplied here, even by those "in the know". In fact, if you did produce a 4 egg clucth, the only thing you can say for sure is that all of them, 100%, will be ball pythons. You must apply "punnett square probabilies" to each individual egg....NOT to clutches as a whole.

Look it this way: Lets say you do have a 4 egg clutch. The first three eggs pip, and you see that they are all normal. In your estimation, you would assume that the 4th egg has a high probability of being a pied. It does not! It still has a 25% chance of being a pied..... even if the first 10 or 15 eggs are normal.

Flip a coin 10 times. Even if it is heads the first 9 times, its still 50/50 to be heads the next time.

I know it sounds like splitting hairs, but I thinks its VERY important to make that distinction.

LOL - ok whatever - chances are you'll probably get one pied or more or less.
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Tosha

"Nihil facimus sed id bene facimus"

7.33.0 Ball Python (Harry and Fluffy and gang)
1.0.0 Angolan Python (Anakin Skywalker)
0.0.1 Green Tree Python (Verdi - yeah I know but my kids love the book)
0.2.0 Feline (Pippen and Pandora)
0.0.1 Desert Tortoise (Pope John Paul aka JP )
2.2.1 Fish (1,2,3,4)
0.0.2 frogs rescued from pool skimmer

np

I know what ya'll meen. I bred a pair of 100% het pieds and out of a 7 egg clutch I got no pieds!

Ya pays yer money and ya takes yer chances. Just try to be happy with the results no matter what they are

Quig

it is important for people to understand the distinction that JP is trying to make. Say you want to get into pieds, but are limited in funds. So, you decide to buy pos hets. Well, some poeple will tell you that it is best to buy a whole clutch of pos hets because then you are sure to get atleast some pos hets (e.g. buying a clutch of 4 50% pos hets will give you two hets). Well, that is not really the case. If you buy 4 50% pos hets from one clutch, or 1 each from 4 different clutches it does not change the fact that each egg has a 50% chance of being het. I think some poeple don't understand this principle. I know it does seem like splitting hairs at times, but sometimes it is important.
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Ben

Thanks for help. Thats what I thought but wanted to make sure. Do you know of a reputable breeder that has 100% hets. Also, I have heard it does not matter the % of white on pieds when breeding so if you breed 2 pieds with little white there clutch has the same chance to produce offspring with high white as offspring of high white parents. Is this true?

Thats my understanding as well. I do not have pieds, but My understanding is that an 90% white pied can throw 5% babies, and a 5% pied can throw 90% babies.

np

There is a slight difference, but it all works out the same in the end. (I used to know the name of the specific probability formula that applies here. I'm old. I forget things.) Basically, the odds are 1:4 for each individual egg. This is not the same as a total 1:4 clutch ratio. However, as far as the probabilities formula I mentioned goes, the total clutch may theoretically reach a 1:4 ratio with enough eggs tested within the clutch.

For example, if I randomly flipped a penny four times, I cannot state that half of the flips would/should result in heads. (I may get no heads.) But if I flipped it four hundred times, the likely hood of a 1:1 ratio increases. The more I flip, the better the overall "clutch" ratio narrows down to the 1:1 ratio.

There is a difference, but not enough to spoil your breeding expectations at all.

Chris
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mean people suck

So what your saying Chris is eventually you'll get a pied, lol. Ron
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The Crawl Space

Well...yes. But what I was really trying to say is that the more eggs you produce, the closer the clutch ratio is to the 1:4 odds.

So technically...when anyone says that the clutch ratio (and not the individual egg ratio) is 1:4...and if they are considering (counting) all the eggs that have ever been produced in the history of Ball Python breeding...they may be correct...or at least only off by about a trillionth of a decimal place.

That's all.

Chris
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mean people suck

My pair of het albinos gave me 3 albinos from 7 eggs 3 years ago. She took the next 2 years off (arghh). This year she laid 9 eggs but 2 went bad. When they hatched I had 7 beautiful 66% poss hets..NO ALBINOS... ( another arghh, lol) Ron
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The Crawl Space

See? It all works out in the end. The first year the clutch ratio (7 eggs) was around 43% Albino. The next year (7 eggs) it was 0% Albino. Overall (14 eggs) it was around 21% Albino. The more eggs you have, the closer the clutch ratio gets to the expected 25% ratio. Up some. Down some. Always moving closer to the 25% mark.

Chris
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mean people suck

I loved your link on genetics! The pics were cute and it's really great for explaining everything without the technical stuff that some people get stuck on....

Next time someone asks about making albino's or a recessive gene, may I send them to your page? I'm sick of explaining it over and over to people myself..... lol
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1.0 gorgeous spider ball python
2.2 het for axanthic
5.20 normals
www.blazingreptiles.com up & running!

Is it possible, given that statistically a pair of het pieds should produce 1 in 4 pieds, that you can also end up with the opposite? Say you get lucky and hatch 3 out of 4 pieds? Like the coin flipping analogy above, you may flip tails 9 out of 10 times but it is really a 50% shot right?
thanks
tony butler

....that happens to.
Which is what makes up for those who hatch no homogenous.
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Charles Glaspie

Tanstaafl:
"There ain't no such thing as a free lunch".
An acronym created by my favorite author Robert A. Heinlein.