Reptile & Amphibian Forums

ok lets see if i can get my point across.is there 33% and 25% hets for any ressive morph ,im not talking about dh's?or are they all 50%poss hets?the genetic squares dont show this outcome from poss.hets to mormals.i know it is or it aint a het.i know 33%'s are poss. from a 66% or 25%'s are poss. from 50%.can you look at the jeans in two ways?one being the % of the litter, the other the (poss.) % of each snake.after the poss.66% or 50% proves the babys from them can only be 50%ers?

I'm not really sure what you are talking about with all that confusion but they are all Possible hets unless they are 100%. 25%,33%,50%, 66% whatever it is. That was the possible chance in the litter that the animal is actually a het. Hope this helps..

Mike Brooks
TNS Reptiles
Long Island, NY
631-732-4233

Geneticall speaking, there is no such thing as a 25% het or a 33% het.

When a 50% het or a 66% het is crossed with a normal, the chances of producing a het are either 50%, if the 50% or 66% is later proven to be 100% het, or the chance is 0% if the possible het turned out to be just a normal.

I'm sorry, but Genetically speaking, there is such thing as at 25% het.
If you have a 50%, the probability of having the trait is 50%. If you cross two possible hets, you have a 25% chance of getting a carrier. This would be a 25% het. (Do the Punnet Square for Heterozygocity and you will see what I am talking about)
Most people market these as normals since it is a very slim chance and many people do not want to buy a 25%er AND! you have no way of determining if it is a het (as most people know) or not.

Hope this helps.
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-Ohh, what a Lady-

Balls for Life, Baby!

She's right! Here's a simple formula...

50% bred to another 50% Just multiply .50 x .50 = .25 (25% pos hets)

66% bred to 50% Just multiply .66 x .50 = .33 (33% pos hets)

66% bred to 66% Just multiply .66 x .66 = .44 (44% pos hets)

If you are working with double hets, then it gets a bit more complex. It really helps to learn genetics and what heterozygous and homozygous really means.

Oz
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OZZYBOIDS

Oz,
I'm assuming your calculations are based on NO visual morphs being produced from the breeding! Because if a visual morph is produced then they were both 100% hets making the normal appearing hatchlings 66%er's. Ron
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The Crawl Space

I meant this calculation for determining the probable genetics of the offspring... not the parents which I assumed would already be known.

If a visual is produced then yes you would know the parents are hets (they have been proven!)... assuming you were working with pos hets to begin with. BUT... what about the non-visual siblings? These would be 66% pos hets and that's another calculation entirely... lol

Oz
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OZZYBOIDS

That a snake is either a het or it's not a het - it cant be 25% het. Tho it can be a "25% possiblity" that it is a het based on it's geneology. last that's how I read it.
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Tosha

"Nihil facimus sed id bene facimus"

7.33.0 Ball Python (Harry and Fluffy and gang)
1.0.0 Angolan Python (Anakin Skywalker)
0.0.1 Green Tree Python (Verdi - yeah I know but my kids love the book)
0.2.0 Feline (Pippen and Pandora)
0.0.1 Desert Tortoise (Pope John Paul aka JP )
2.2.1 Fish (1,2,3,4)
0.0.2 frogs rescued from pool skimmer

..
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The Crawl Space

HOORAY FOR BALL PYTHONS AND GENETICS!

Hets, Visuals and Non, they all rock!
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-Ohh, what a Lady-

Balls for Life, Baby!

The true way to say "25% poss het" is "the animal has a 66%/50% chance of being 50% poss het." Because if the original 66% or 50% proves out, the offspring each have a 50% chance. So the 25% is b.s. They have a possibility of being a possible het. Stop trying to make things sound better than they are. It's 50% or 0%.

Chris
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1.1.0 Irian x Jungle Carpet Pythons
1.2.0 Black Rats- Robert, Cady, Kylie
1.2.0 Albino FL Kings-Nick, Jessica, Ashley
1.1.0 Crimson Corns-Kane, Ruby
0.1.0 Het-Crimson Corns-Lola
0.1.0 White-Sided/Pos Het Albino Black Rat-Lita
1.0.0 Albino White-sided Black Rat-Rey
0.1.0 Albino/Het White-sided Black Rat-Stacey
1.2.0 Creamsicle Corns-Vince, Trish, Torrie
0.1.0 Fl King-Bonnie
1.0.1 Green Tree Pythons Biak-Brandon, Aru-Orochimaru
1.0.0 Flame X Blood Bearded-Ruff
2.4.0 Ball Pythons-Kritsy, Gretchen, Alexis, 100% het for albino balls- Naruto, Hinata, 66% het VPI Axanthic-Sasuke
0.1.0 Red-tail Boa-Xena
0.0.1 Savannah Monitor-Izzy

looking at this. Take a statistics course if you have some free time then you may see why the calculation makes sense.

Anyway, I was just trying to be helpful... not trying to make anything seem better.
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OZZYBOIDS

Oz is right 25% animals do exist, nobody said they have great potential as 25% ers but they still have a 50% chance of being 50% Poss hets , which makes them 25 % ers. If they come from a 66% Poss het to a normal I believe that makes them 33.333% likely to be het (66.666% likely to be normal), simple math, some were just sleeping in prob/stats class from the looks of the above post! At least you were awake too Oz! Anthony McCain-McCain's Reptiles.

I couldn't make the Tinley show, sucks because I was hoping to finally meet you. I agree with your het% calculations but OZ was talking about breeding het to het.The 25% posts are usually used as a selling tactic. To me 25% het means normal,lol. Ron
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The Crawl Space

Ok Ron , maybe I was reading into it to much, I do that sometimes, ya know, LOL!! As for Tinley , you did miss out on a good show , finally got to me Ian Gniazdowski in person after doing business with him for all these years, he's a great guy and knows his Ball Pythons as good as anyone else out there.. Maybe you'll run into me next year as I hope to be there , haven't missed Tinley yet! Talk to you later Ron, Anthony McCain-McCain's Reptiles.

woops I was typing to fast , I meant to say "finally got to meet Ian.... that's what happens if I don't proofread before I post, and by the way when are they are going to make it so you can go back and fix mistakes like this, seems with all the technology today it wouldn't be that hard to program this forum to be able to get back into your post , maybe that's asking to much? I'm sure it can be done but it may be to much work to justify doing it.

you guys are getting out of hand its either a het or not , and the % is how much of a chance it is to be a het. there can even be a 2% possible het if you do all kinds math but its not worth even doing

There is one inherent problem with comparing genetics to statistics-- snake genetics are variable through breeding experiments.

The mathematical formula ".50 x .50 = .25" is not a correct representation of the genetics involved.

In the formula above, the ".50" is constant. In genetics, the ".50" is variable. In this case, the same formula would read: "A x .50 = .25" (Let A represent the possibility of the Albino gene in the parent.) Obviously this formula is flawed in that it does not allow for the parent animal to be EITHER Heterozygous or Normal.

If the parent animal is proven Normal, the formula would then read:
"0 x .50 = .25" This is obviously incorrect.

If the parent animal is proven Heterozygous, the formula would then read:
"1.0 x .50 = .25" This is also incorrect.

Although I personally subscribe to the 25%er labeling system, it is a flawed system.

Chris
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mean people suck

Whatever Chris , I realize that 50% of 0 doesn't equal 25% , but since it is a 50% animal most of us have NO PROBLEM calling it's offspring a 25% er, no matter how you want to explain it that animal STILL has a shot at being a het so we call it a 25% er, granted the odds are not high of it being a het , but just for the record I have produced an albino from a 50% Het x 50% Het breeding so in my eyes even a baby from a 50% het to a normal is not a normal (0% chance of being a het) until I breed it to a homozygous animal and find out myself, regardless of what you may think my luck with possible hets has been OFF THE CHARTS in most cases anyway so where does your math kick in on that fact?? Anthony McCain-McCain's Reptiles....

I agree. I prefer the terms "25%er" and "33%er" too. They may be flawed, but they are the best we have and they work fine.

"regardless of what you may think my luck with possible hets has been OFF THE CHARTS in most cases anyway so where does your math kick in on that fact??"

I'm not sure that I understand the question. Are you asking me why you get lucky with the odds? I don't know. After all, the odds are just odds. They are in no way guaranteed.

Please forgive me if I am wrong, but I sensed a little hostility in your response. I apologize if I have offended you in any way. I was just explaining the formula. I'm sorry.

Chris
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mean people suck

No problem Chris you didn't offend me , I was also just stating things from my point of view, in otherwords all the talk about stats and genetics put aside I have been very pleased with the Possible hets I have bred out (mainly 50% and 66% ers , very few bred out to the point you would call them 25% ers), people like to put down Possible hets but truth be known Poss Hets are what have given me the "jump" I needed in this industry! Without the Poss hets I wouldn't be working with the dozen or so different morphs that I've obtained over the past few years directly because of the Albinos (originally Poss Hets) and the Pieds (also originally Poss Hets), so I do get a little worked up when people try to "break down" the Possible Het game , as I know all about how it works, and that's from "hands on " experience , not just something I read in a book somewhere! Talk is just talk in my opinion you have to show me to convince me! Anthony McCain-McCain's Reptiles.

I'm glad I didn't offend you. The subtle tones of speech are sometimes lost on the page. And I agree about PH animals. They are way underrated. I would rather buy three (3) PH Piebald females than one (1) Heterozygous Piebald female. I could save a little cash, and the odds suggest more visual offspring. Plus you have the added benefit of backup females in case the one Heterozygous female is lazy.

Vive les Het Possibles! (LOL)

Chris
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mean people suck

My problem with the label of "25% possible het", is that it implies that each animal has a 25% chance...when in fact they have a 50% or a 0%. By saying the animal has the potential to be a 50% poss het, you're still keeping the lineage and NOT being misleading in any way. The truth of the matter is, a poss het x normal gives you a possible possible het. 66%/50% possible for 50% possible het.

I'm going to be breeding a 66% poss het VPI Axanthic to a normal either this year or next. I'm holding back the females, and selling the males for the price of a normal, but the info given to the customer will state that the animal has a chance at being het for VPI axanthic, and they will be given the option of being notified when and if the original male is proven. To me, that is the correct way to do it.

Chris
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1.1.0 Irian x Jungle Carpet Pythons
1.2.0 Black Rats- Robert, Cady, Kylie
1.2.0 Albino FL Kings-Nick, Jessica, Ashley
1.1.0 Crimson Corns-Kane, Ruby
0.1.0 Het-Crimson Corns-Lola
0.1.0 White-Sided/Pos Het Albino Black Rat-Lita
1.0.0 Albino White-sided Black Rat-Rey
0.1.0 Albino/Het White-sided Black Rat-Stacey
1.2.0 Creamsicle Corns-Vince, Trish, Torrie
0.1.0 Fl King-Bonnie
1.0.1 Green Tree Pythons Biak-Brandon, Aru-Orochimaru
1.0.0 Flame X Blood Bearded-Ruff
2.4.0 Ball Pythons-Kritsy, Gretchen, Alexis, 100% het for albino balls- Naruto, Hinata, 66% het VPI Axanthic-Sasuke
0.1.0 Red-tail Boa-Xena
0.0.1 Savannah Monitor-Izzy

But it's not probability, it's genetics. And gentically speaking, it either has the gene or doesn't. It's not 25%. Cuz by saying that you'll get people thinking the animal has a 25% chance of carrying the gene. in truth, the animal has a 50% or 0%. Yea, 25% makes sense if you want it to and by probability...but genetically, a 66% x normal, the offspring have a 66% chance of having a 50% chance of carrying the gene. sorry, but by probability yes there's a 25%...but to call it a 25% possible het is a flat out lie.

Chris
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1.1.0 Irian x Jungle Carpet Pythons
1.2.0 Black Rats- Robert, Cady, Kylie
1.2.0 Albino FL Kings-Nick, Jessica, Ashley
1.1.0 Crimson Corns-Kane, Ruby
0.1.0 Het-Crimson Corns-Lola
0.1.0 White-Sided/Pos Het Albino Black Rat-Lita
1.0.0 Albino White-sided Black Rat-Rey
0.1.0 Albino/Het White-sided Black Rat-Stacey
1.2.0 Creamsicle Corns-Vince, Trish, Torrie
0.1.0 Fl King-Bonnie
1.0.1 Green Tree Pythons Biak-Brandon, Aru-Orochimaru
1.0.0 Flame X Blood Bearded-Ruff
2.4.0 Ball Pythons-Kritsy, Gretchen, Alexis, 100% het for albino balls- Naruto, Hinata, 66% het VPI Axanthic-Sasuke
0.1.0 Red-tail Boa-Xena
0.0.1 Savannah Monitor-Izzy

>She's right! Here's a simple formula...
>
>50% bred to another 50% Just multiply .50 x .50 = .25 (25% pos hets)
>
>66% bred to 50% Just multiply .66 x .50 = .33 (33% pos hets)
>
>66% bred to 66% Just multiply .66 x .66 = .44 (44% pos hets)

As I see it, those formulas are too simple. Let's take the first one, 50% x 50%.

0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 or 25% of the matings are het x het which are identified because they throw a homozygote. The normal babies are 66% probability heterozygous.

0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 or 25% of the matings are male het x female normal. 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 or 25% of the matings are female het x male normal. The probability that a given baby is heterozygous is 0.5 or 50%.

0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 or 25% of the matings are normal x normal with 0% of having a heterozygous baby.

Add the last three categories because they cannot produce a homozygote; this means that 0.75 = 75% of the matings cannot produce a homozygote. The probability of having one heterozygous animal in the mating is (0.25 0.25)/0.75 = 66%. Statistically, half of the babies from 2/3 of the matings are heterozygous, which means that these babies have a 33% probability of being heterozygous.

On the other hand, for practical purposes, I would sell the babies from all of these matings that do not produce a homozygous baby as normals.

Paul Hollander

Yeah. It does get a lot more complicated with PH x PH breedings. In this case, I always like to consider one of the animals Normal. For simplicity sake.

Chris
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mean people suck

Correct. A so-called "25%er" is either Heterozygous or it is not Heterozygous. The "50%er" label may be considered appropriate.

Incorrect. A 50% chance of a 50% chance is only 25% chance. Therefore the "50%er" label may be considered appropriate.

Either viewpoint is perfectly arguable. (And we proved that a while ago in an excruciatingly long and meaningless thread.) However, the statistical probability is not the only reason we commonly differentiate the 25%ers from the 50%ers. The "25%er" label also denotes lineage. This is important for recordkeeping.

I was never completely convinced either way, but I do believe that for the sake of lineage and recordkeeping it is best to accept and implement the "25%er" label.

At least that's how I see it...and I see through the eyes of a God.

Chris
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mean people suck

... like I said a selling tactic, Ron
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The Crawl Space

But it does provide usefull information. I've produced a bunch of 25% chance het females that are nearing maturity and I wouldn't trade them for "normals" because I know there is a reasonable chance some are hets since they had het grandfathers and homozygous great grandfathers.

An important thing to remember about 25% and 33% chance hets is that it's an all or nothing shot if they come from the same clutch or even the same possible het parent. With 50% and 66% chance hets your odds of having at least one het go up with the more animals you get and contrary to what many claim it doesn't mater if they come from the same clutch or different clutches (as long as there is no marker to make the pick not random). With sibling 25% and 33% chance hets it all depends on if the 50% or 66% parent (father usually) hit their chance. If they didn't, it doesn't mater how many of their offspring you get from a normal, you aren't going to get a het. The 25% and 33% chances really only come from a large sample size from a large number of 50% and 66% hets respectively.

Also, I only use the terms 25% chance het and 33% chance het for the offspring of 50% chance het and 66% chance hets to normals. I see in this thread where 50% chance het X 50% chance het have been brought in but I think that's a different chance and Paul Hollander covers that in his post.

this is the reason i ask this.i want to get low % hets as my normal females.and this is what i have to work with at this time.
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1.1 100%4 albino(bell/jolliff)
2.0 66%4 bell hypo/ghost
1.0 100%4 hypo/ghost
3.0 50%4 pie bald
3.6 nice normals
2 red bloods
1 black blood
1 jungle carpet/1.0 bredl's
1.2 snow/albino/whitesided het4 snow
1.1 het4 albino Xerd garters
2.2 albino garters
0.1 ky blue e. garter
1.1 albino cow suckers
1.2.5 bearded dragons
2.3 e. box turtles
0.1 calico leucistic a. toad
2.3 (hypo/anery).normal a. toads
disciod/hisser/lobster
mealworms
rats/mice
1.1 super kids Memfis Lance and Linda May

When you breed 100% het to 100% het 2/3 or 66.6% of the offspring are 100% hets.

KEY WORD BEING "OFFSPRING"

NO SUCH THING AS 25%, 33% OR 44% OF THE OFFSPRING BEING HETS. ITS EITHER 0%, 50%. 66.6%, OR 100% OF THE OFFSPRING ARE HETS.

ANY OTHER CALCULATIONS ARE WRONG.
EVEN 66% HET OR 50% HET IS THE WRONG TERMINOLGY.
THERE ARE ONLY 100% HETS OR NORMALS.

WHAT YOU CAN SAY IS.
"I HAVE A 25% CHANCE 1 OF THESE IS A 100% HET."
OR
"I HAVE A 33% CHANCE 1 OF THESE IS A 100% HET."
OR
"I HAVE A 44% CHANCE 1 OF THESE IS A 100% HET."
OR
"I HAVE A 50% CHANCE 1 OF THESE IS A 100% HET."
OR
"I HAVE A 66.6% CHANCE 1 OF THESE IS A 100% HET."

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GOD Bless
Andre
ASFReptiles

http://imageevent.com/asfreptiles

Actually, in a 100% x 100% each offspring has a 25% chance of being normal, 50% chance of being het, and a 25% chance of being homoz. Not the clutch will produce 25%, 50%, 25%. It's why you can get 4 albinos 1 yr from a het x het, and 0 the next several years. So all the normal looking babies have a 66% chance of being het for the gene. Not 66% OF them.

Chris
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1.1.0 Irian x Jungle Carpet Pythons
1.2.0 Black Rats- Robert, Cady, Kylie
1.2.0 Albino FL Kings-Nick, Jessica, Ashley
1.1.0 Crimson Corns-Kane, Ruby
0.1.0 Het-Crimson Corns-Lola
0.1.0 White-Sided/Pos Het Albino Black Rat-Lita
1.0.0 Albino White-sided Black Rat-Rey
0.1.0 Albino/Het White-sided Black Rat-Stacey
1.2.0 Creamsicle Corns-Vince, Trish, Torrie
0.1.0 Fl King-Bonnie
1.0.1 Green Tree Pythons Biak-Brandon, Aru-Orochimaru
1.0.0 Flame X Blood Bearded-Ruff
2.4.0 Ball Pythons-Kritsy, Gretchen, Alexis, 100% het for albino balls- Naruto, Hinata, 66% het VPI Axanthic-Sasuke
0.1.0 Red-tail Boa-Xena
0.0.1 Savannah Monitor-Izzy