Reptile & Amphibian Forums

Hi all,
I've appreciated reading all the great advice posted here on the different breeding methods that you all use. Now, I have a question that I'm hoping at least one of you will have some experience with.

Like many people here, I admire many of the great BP morphs, but can't afford to buy Homo animals. I'd also really enjoy the process (and satisfaction) of creating my morphs myself. What I would like to do is breed my own Homo offspring using a 100% Het male, and one or more 50% Het females.

My question then, is this: at what point would you consider a 50% Het proven?

Obviously, if my first clutch contains a Homo offspring, it's a moot point. But what if the clutch produces all normal looking offspring? These would all be treated as new 50% hets, but the possibility is there that this particular female, with this particular clutch, simply didn't hit that theoretical 25/50/25 ratio. So, how many years would you continue to attempt to breed her back to the 100% Het male before declaring her a normal? Would the number of eggs produced matter to you? (eg. If she laid two years in a row with only 2-4 eggs per year, versus consecutive large clutches with no Homos produced?)

I hope that this is as clear to anyone reading it as it is in my head...

Thanks in advance to anyone that can help!
Clay

I guess it would depend on how bad I needed a het as to how long before I gave up on a 50% possible het. Right now I need one pretty bad so I'm thinking I'd go for 16 normals from het x possible het before giving up with a 99% certainty that the possible het wasn't a het. Maybe after I already have a few hets I might give up a little earlier.
A table on my site with the odds

Randy,

Thanks, that's a great resourse! I was interested by the paragraph about "random selections". I've seen some breeders who encourage buying posshets from the same clutch (Ralph Davis has an article on his site advocating this), while your article sounds like you do the opposite. To a decidedly non-mathematic person, it would seem like selecting from one clutch would better your odds - even with that 6.2% chance that 0 in 4 eggs would show mutation.

In the end, I suppose that I'd probably give each female 10 viable eggs (a 94.4% chance of producing mutation) to prove herself out. Worst case, I've got a big, established breeder on hand for another project.

Best,
Clay

I love statistics! Anyhow, because the fertilization of each egg is a completely seperate event from the fertilization of each of the other eggs, the same chance exists for each egg to recieve a particular gene (the same could be said for the development of the gametes themselves). For each parent, during formation of the gametes, there is an equal chance that any given gene will be "chosen". Because hets can pass on either a het or normal gene, that means half of the gametes should carry the desired gene. If you multiply half (.5) by half (.5) you get the 25% (.25) chance homozygous offspring. so, siblings from one clutch have no more of a chance than any other poss hets...but, you've always got to have SOME way to choose, right? Personally, I'd stick with 66% if you are buying.

Buying whole clutches might be the most expedient way to market around a big can of worms IF there is a sometimes sign for het in a given mutation. I don't think any signs have been proven yet but there is speculation that SOME het piebalds show. If there is something to that, then the whole random selection thing goes out the window and you get in to an ethical issue of how to you sell the ones with the suspected sign vs. the ones without. Remember that some for sure hets don't have it so even IF there is something to the sign the ones without it still have some chance, just MAYBE not as much as the ones with it. One way around part of this issue is to sell entire clutches together since the clutch is a randomly selected group and any other selection favors someone and could lead to finger pointing. However there is still the issue of who gets to buy the clutches with the most sings and who the ones with none or less suspected visible hets. Again, there may not be anything to the rumors with the pieds but it certainly makes things very complicated and I think there is not an easy answer as to the right thing to do about it.

Just out of curiousity...why did you decide to go with so many possible hets? In the long run, I'd think that going with a few definite hets would be a lot cheaper (caging, food, time, etc). Especially with morphs such as albinoism where you can get a 100% het male for under $300.

Take care.

matt

Money was the limiting factor. I used to get small bonuses from time to time and they where only enough for the possible hets. When I purchased my fist 100% het albino male (late 99 I think it was) he was a steal at $435 at auction. Sure you could buy one cheaper now but I already have four 3 year old daughters out of him (1 now proven het and 3 that are still considered possible hets).

I enjoy the time and effort but the money was the limiting factor. Even if I had saved up I don't think I could have bought even one pair of 100% hets of the more expensive morphs in time to be on schedule with what I might produce this next year. Sure I will not hit all the projects but I’m expecting to hit on some of them, and if not I don’t have much invested but my time and labor.

So, if you have patience and a will to put a lot of work into it possible hets give you a chance you wouldn't have as early on a tight budget. They aren’t for everyone. If you can afford better, don’t have the patience, wouldn’t enjoy working with the animals even if they don’t hit, or if you are more worried about not hitting them than excited about getting lucky then they probably aren’t for you.

I personaly say get at least 12 good eggs. So if your female is big enough you should get that with two breedings. I give my pos hets females one extra year(bewteen 1500g and 2000g)to give my self a better chance for more eggs to prove my female. And think posotive all the babies you produce are also pos hets so keep females and sell the males as normal. Probably not the quickest way but I'm in no hurry. Clay Rhodes

Clay, the debate on het vs possible hets will rage on forever. If you are limited by $$$$, what I would do if I was you is this:

Look around for a good deal on a 100% het female albino ball this year. You can probably find one for $750 or so. If you get a GREAT deal on a het pair, say $800 or so, or like $50 more if you add a male, go for it. Or, wait until next year to buy your male, and get your female this year. A female will take minimum of 2 yrs to get to breeding age/size, and a male even less, so you want to get a female first, and then add your male.
I prefer to buy 100% hets so there is no guessing/sweating it out that all your females are really normals etc. SOME people like the excitement, and that is cool too! It all depends on price, and who you are getting them from.

Dave