It isn't well known or documented exactly what V. prasinus or other "Tree" Monitors nest in. There have been a couple scattered reports as you mention of baby Prasinus found in arboreal termitaria. So that's a possibility along with decomposed tree hollows and in the ground even.

What many keepers do with Trees, almost exclusively, is to NOT offer deep ground substrate heated up into the low 80's °F and to ONLY offer the nest boxes, so naturally (or un-naturally) they use that vs nothing. I think the best way to 'hedge your bets' with species notorious for reproductive failure in captivity after a few clutches, is to offer both deep ground and some boxes strewn about and elevated in the cage and let them choose. I can attest that given some earth to dig into, Prasinus do dig underneath things and form little tight-fitting long tunnels as hides along with wedging themselves in cork tubes and other hides. I say throw everything at them and let them choose what they want.....

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