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Odds

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Posted by: RandyRemington at Thu Jul 17 01:21:12 2008   [ Email Message ] [ Show All Posts by RandyRemington ]  
   

The 25% chance of homozygous albino from het X het is per egg. Each egg has a 75% chance of not containing an albino.

With 5 eggs the cumulative chance of none of them being albino is 0.75^5 = 23.7% So you where unlucky but not that unlucky. Long-term roughly 1 out of 4 such clutches would miss in a large number of such breedings. Maybe next time you will be one of the 3 lucky ones.

Now if the clutch had been bigger, say 9 eggs then you would have had a 1 - 0.75^9 = 92.5% chance of hatching at least one albino. But even then you could have been the unlucky 7.5 in 100 and not hatched any albinos. Feed mom up to lay more eggs next year and improve your odds. Of course an albino male will also greatly improve your odds if that is in your budget.


   

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