Posted by:
oddballpythons
at Tue Apr 12 16:14:44 2005 [ Email Message ] [ Show All Posts by oddballpythons ]
There is a huge difference between probability and actual chances. That is why we use averages. If you flip a coin 50% of the time it will be heads and 50% tails, but the odds of you flipping it ten times and getting five heads in a row then five tails in a row is very small, even though the odds are 50/50. And you have a 75% chance of making pastels and a 25% chance of making super pastels, yes if they are combined that makes a 33% chance that one of the pastels will be a super, but I included the normal snakes into the scenario. My point is also that if you have a pastel and breed it to normal you should get 1.1 pastel and 1.1 normals with four eggs. How often does that happen? Almost never. Because the odds of all four snakes meeting the 25% probabilty is VERY small. THIS IS WHY WE USE AVERAGES. So we can have an idea of what should happen. Ask every breeder how many times they have had a perfect ratio of even sex and morph. I am willing to bet it is less than 5% of breedings have a perfect ratio. And the more eggs that there are the lower the probability. The more breedings that there are, the closer that the actual numbers will match to the mathmatical numbers. How many people have bred two pastels and out of eight eggs got 1.1 supers, 2.2 pastels, and 1.1 normals? Or even 2 supers, 4 pastels, and 2 normals. The odds of a perfect clutch are rare. But it averages out. If you breed a pastel and a normal and it lays ten eggs there is a 1 in 11 chance you will have 5 pastels and 5 normals, even though the averages say your clutch should be 50/50.
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RE: Correction: What you are missing is..... - oddballpythons, Tue Apr 12 16:14:44 2005