Posted by:
JP
at Wed Apr 13 17:05:00 2005 [ Email Message ] [ Show All Posts by JP ]
You mentioned the coin flip analogy. You said that if you flipped a coin a hundred times, you'd get approximately 50 heads...now imagine this scenario. If you did flip the first fifty flips, and happened to get 50 heads (unlikely, I'll admit, but not impossible, right), then your thinking would assume the next flip has an extremely high probability of being a tails....when in fact the next flip still has an exactly 50/50 chance of being heads or tails....
Probability and odds are two different things. Each egg is completely independent from the others. Lets say you breed a het to and albino and get and 8 egg clutch. If 7 of those eggs turn out to be albino in year one, each egg in year two has a 50% chance of being an albino. Lets say that happens three years in a row...(21 albinos and 3 hets)...next year, each egg still has a 50% chance. Maybe I'm not following you....
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